by The Practician » Thu 03 Jan 2013, 14:09:47
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I'm still waiting for you to answer my question----you said heavy industry, and specifically the bloody automobile industry, are about to die. When will this happen, in your opinion? Will it be dead by 2015? 2020? 2030? When exactly?

No, I never said that, you just want to believe I am some fast crash doomer who thinks the world is going to come to a crashing halt next tuesday, which is not true. I said the death of heavy industry was INEVITABLE, Not imminent.
The point, willfully ignored by you, is that knowing what we do about the importance of energy to economic activity, crying about the off shoring of auto industry jobs is pointless. that sort of industry has no future, it's goddamn entropy incarnate. As to when it will die, it will die slowly, in lockstep with the decline of the infrastructure and way of life that supports it. I would expect it to be little more than a shell of it's current form by about 2050 or so, but I am also totally pulling that number out of my ass.
As to when exactly wasting as much energy as we can and calling it an economy will end....I'm not sure. I'm not even sure what the end of it will look like, or if there will even be a easy to define "moment" where we will be able to say that was when "it" happened. To be honest, I think we will continue trying to push this sort of economy far farther than it makes any rational sense to, increasing inequality, human misery, and environmental degradation along the way.
Horray for a 100 years of Natural Gas!