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Oil In The Ground, Fantasy vs. Reality

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: World oil supply up but spare capacity tight: EIA

Unread postby SilentRunning » Wed 27 Jun 2012, 22:01:47

How can the spare capacity remain "tight" when the cornies tell us that the US is producing "vast" new amounts of oil, and we are for all practical purposes just about "energy independent" and that global oil prices are about to crash???

Color me: Confused. It's almost as if the cornies are LYING TO US? Is that possible? Say it isn't so!!
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Re: World oil supply up but spare capacity tight: EIA

Unread postby FarQ3 » Thu 28 Jun 2012, 16:45:00

No SR the cornies are not LYING TO US, they are just conditioned to always look at the good and dismiss the bad as unthinkable. Just like the passengers of the RMS TITANIC they were still dancing in the great hall as the ship was listing badly to port, wondering what all the fuss is about as there were good times to be had and the Titanic was 'unsinkable'.
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Pump Action Spurs Iraqi Oil Production

Unread postby Graeme » Sun 19 Aug 2012, 19:31:52

Pump Action Spurs Iraqi Oil Production

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')raq has reclaimed its place as the second-largest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, overtaking Iran for the first time in 24 years and shifting the balance of power in the group.

After years of conflict and poor security, Iraq has finally begun to rebuild its shattered oil industry. In July, it pumped just over three million barrels a day, an impressive 400,000 barrel-a-day increase since the end of 2011, according to OPEC data.

But the shift in rankings also is because Iran's output has declined. Western sanctions, aimed at pressuring Tehran over its nuclear program, have cut 700,000 barrels a day from the country's production since 2011, according to OPEC data.

Before the first of the sanctions were imposed in January, Iran was producing 3.5 million barrels a day of oil, a level Iraq doesn't expect to reach until next year.

The gap between the two countries is likely to widen further in the coming months as Iraq sees more rewards from contracts signed in 2009 and 2010 with large Western, Russian and Chinese oil companies to develop a dozen neglected oil fields in southern Iraq. These include some of the world's largest, like Rumaila and West Qurna.

The recovery in Iraq's oil output because of these deals was gradual at first, averaging 4.2% annual growth between 2006 and 2010. It kicked into high gear last year, as oil production expanded 12.5%.

This is good news for oil consumers. Extra supplies from Iraq helped global markets cope with the loss of Libyan exports during last year's civil war. It also helps offset the loss of Iranian exports this year.

But so far, Iraq has just been making up for many years of oil-industry neglect. It still has plenty of growth potential.

"Iraq sits on very bountiful oil reserves [estimated at 143 billion barrels], and for decades there was too little investment to develop these," said Samuel Ciszuk, an analyst at the U.K.-based consultancy KBC Energy Economics. "So the capacity to lift production even significantly above today's levels is there."


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Saudi Arabia Oil Output Tops Russia in June, Jodi Data Show

Unread postby Graeme » Sun 19 Aug 2012, 19:35:03

Saudi Arabia Oil Output Tops Russia in June, Jodi Data Show

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')audi Arabia pumped crude at the highest level in more than three decades in June, overtaking Russia as the world’s largest oil producer during the month, according to the Joint Organization Data Initiative.

The desert kingdom’s output rose 3 percent to 10.1 million barrels a day in June from May as it exported the most in a month since November 2005, according to statistics the government submitted to OPEC and posted on JODI’s website today.

Russia pumped 9.9 million barrels a day of crude oil in the same month, according to the initiative known as JODI. The Russian data exclude natural-gas liquids, JODI said.

Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, put 272 million barrels of crude oil in storage inside the country in June, 2.2 percent less than in May, the data show. The world’s biggest oil exporter shipped 7.84 million barrels a day in June, an increase of 2.3 percent from a month earlier. The data for output and exports include condensates and exclude natural-gas liquids.

JODI calculated a different barrel-per-day figure for Russia using data in metric tons that the country submitted to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, and compared that with information from other sources, it said.


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2012's Top 5 Oil & Gas Plays

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 19 Dec 2012, 19:45:11

2012's Top 5 Oil & Gas Plays

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')012 has been a stellar year for oil and gas. From East Africa to North America, new technology, major new discoveries, an unparalleled appetite for exploration and a metamorphosing perception of risk have changed the playing field.

We're looking at potential rather than existing production, and here are our Top 5 picks for this year:

Turkana County, Kenya

We have to start with Kenya, the biggest success story of the year.

In March, the UK's Tullow Oil and Canada's Africa Oil Corp. discovered 100 meters of oil in the Ngamia-1 well. The euphoria was in part because this discovery was made on the very first try in the very first well. Stocks shot up to record highs as a result.

The euphoria has not abated. In late November, the same duo made another find of 30 meters of oil in the nearby Twiga-1 well.

September also saw Kenya strike 52 meters of natural gas in its first-ever offshore find in the Mbawa-1 well, off the coast of Malindi. U.S.-based Apache Corp. owns 50 percent of the well in a consortium with a handful of other companies. They're still digging, hoping that going deeper will reveal the oil.

The bigger picture, however, is that only the surface has been scratched in terms of exploration. The East Africa Rift is believed to hold over 70 billion barrels of untapped crude oil, while offshore Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique have a joint estimated 250 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. There may be offshore oil, too. The oil discoveries in Kenya so far have been confined to one massive basin, and there are six more.

In addition to the size of the prize here, Kenya is favorable for other reasons as well: It offers relative political stability in the midst of a rather restless Africa; it offers attractive fiscal terms; it offers easy access to export markets; and it has an appetite for infrastructure that is hard to beat.

While 2013 may see some changes in the regulatory environment that could be less favorable, as for 2012, Kenya remains THE number one East African play in terms of potential. Next year will give us a better idea of commercial viability.

Bakken, N.D.

The Bakken shale play has placed North Dakota ahead of Alaska, making it the number two oil producer in the U.S. for 2012, after Texas. Because of Bakken, the U.S. has increased oil production this year to a level it hasn't seen in almost a decade and a half. In one month alone this year, North Dakota issued 370 drilling permits.

Stretching from Eastern Montana to Western North Dakota and across parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba in the Williston Basin, the Bakken shale play could yield some 4.3 billion barrels of oil, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. That's the modest estimate. Continental Resources -- one of the major Bakken players -- estimates as much as 400 billion barrels.

The clincher is that much of the vast Bakken Petroleum System has not even been tapped. So far, drilling has primarily targeted the Middle Bakken and the upper Three Forks Zones. The Three Forks Zones have not been fully tapped, and the Upper Bakken Shale hasn't really been tapped at all.

Eagle Ford, South Texas


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Re: 2012's Top 5 Oil & Gas Plays

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 19 Dec 2012, 20:03:16

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Re: 2012's Top 5 Oil & Gas Plays

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 19 Dec 2012, 20:27:34

Obama: Climate change among top three priorities for second term

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')resident Obama has identified climate change as one of his top three priorities in his second term after coming under fire from environmentalists for giving the issue short shrift during the campaign.

The president, in an interview for TIME's Person of the Year award, said the economy, immigration, climate change and energy would be at the top of his agenda for the next four years.

The interview took place before the fatal shootings at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut, an incident that had pushed gun control to a top spot on Obama's agenda.

Obama said his daughters have influenced his thinking about the need to tackle climate change.

“[O]n an issue like climate change, for example, I think for this country and the world to ask some very tough questions about what are we leaving behind, that weighs on you. And not to mention the fact I think that generation is much more environmentally aware than previous generations,” he told TIME.

The comments continued a trend of Obama vowing to focus on climate without laying out details of his agenda.

Against the backdrop of Hurricane Sandy, Obama said in his first post-election press conference in November that climate change would be a focus in his second term.

In that press conference, Obama touted executive actions designed to curb emissions, such as finalizing new vehicle fuel efficiency standards and rolling out the first-ever air pollution limits for new coal-fired power plants.

Congressional Democrats have amplified calls in recent weeks to tackle climate change through legislation. They have said Sandy, a months-long drought and wildfires that ravaged the West this past summer urge action on the issue.


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Re: 2012's Top 5 Oil & Gas Plays

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 20 Dec 2012, 16:27:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'O')bama: Climate change among top three priorities for second term


Whoop-e-doo.

Yes, I'm sure that was true in his first term as well.

And what did Obama actually accomplish other than derailing the UN Climate Change Treaty at Copenhagen and wasting billions of dollars subsidizing his cronies by pouring taxpayer dollars into their bankrupt companies?

Sheesh! :roll:
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Re: 2012's Top 5 Oil & Gas Plays

Unread postby Graeme » Thu 20 Dec 2012, 20:24:20

Obama won the election. GOP lost. Your constant criticism sounds like sour grapes. Deal with it. You'll have to wait and see what he does. His record on climate change has been recognized but he has been urged to do more.

Green, labor coalition urges Obama to tackle climate change

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') coalition of green groups and labor organizations want President Obama to ramp up climate change efforts in his second term.

The BlueGreen Alliance and 11 of its member organizations sent a letter to Obama urging him to give climate change a high profile and to continue setting air pollution limits.

“Your leadership on climate change over the last four years has been commendable. We look forward to working with you over the next four as we finally come to grips with the solutions that will put Americans back to work and put our climate on a path to stability,” David Foster, executive director with the BlueGreen Alliance, wrote in the letter that was made public Thursday.

Specifically, the organizations want Obama to push for measures to improve infrastructure resiliency for extreme weather events, impose carbon emission limits on existing coal-fired power plants and engage Congress on climate change.


thehill

I know Senator Boxer is working on the latter.
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Countries oil and gas reserves per capita (in USD)

Unread postby Arthur75 » Mon 25 Mar 2013, 20:18:50

Interesting pic :

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Re: Countries oil and gas reserves per capita (in USD)

Unread postby AdTheNad » Tue 26 Mar 2013, 06:48:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')hose big blue circles need to be repainted as bulls eyes.

Brilliant. And you probably better watch out if you share a border or are a close ally of one of those bulls eyes.
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Re: Countries oil and gas reserves per capita (in USD)

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 26 Mar 2013, 07:38:27

There's also blowback.
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Re: World Oil reserves: declining - but how fast?

Unread postby John_A » Thu 27 Jun 2013, 14:33:14

A quick review seemed in order on this thread. How about we test the original Reuters idea?

One year after Reuters was getting excited about declining reserves, one year, turns out, they went up instead, to 1383 billion barrels.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/06/0 ... X020110608

How about a few years later? So in 2010 they were estimated at 1330 billion barrels, in the 3 years since 2010 we have used approximately another 90 billion barrels or so, which should reduce reserves to 1330-90= 1240. Any number greater than that means we found that much in the intervening 3 years. The total nowadays?

1669 at the end of 2012.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/ ... I720130612

All writeups came from the same source. I wonder if the original author was fired in the wake of getting it so wrong? Probably not.

However, this REALLY does beg the question, if the number is supposed to be 1240, and instead is 1669, not only did the 90 we use get replaced, but we added another 339 on top of it. So if I understand this correctly, for every barrel we consumed, not only did we replace it, but we found 3.7 more? Isn't there a thread around here on how we aren't ever discovering as much as we consume?
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Re: World Oil reserves: declining - but how fast?

Unread postby dsula » Thu 27 Jun 2013, 17:21:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'S')o if I understand this correctly, for every barrel we consumed, not only did we replace it, but we found 3.7 more??


Crazy, isn't it? I'm wondering how much more we can find if the price increases. Do you think there is in fact an UNLIMTED amount of oil available IF we're willing to pay (print) an unlimited amount of money for it?

Luckly there's a mathematical equation for it.
amount_of_oil = lim f(money), for money going towards infinity.

One only needs to solve the equation to get the answer.
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Re: World Oil reserves: declining - but how fast?

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 27 Jun 2013, 18:04:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', 'a')mount_of_oil = lim f(money), for money going towards infinity.
That could work if price also goes towards infinity. :P
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Re: World Oil reserves: declining - but how fast?

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 27 Jun 2013, 19:52:58

Figures for reserves can always go up. Even Saudi Arabia argues that for conventional production we still have 75 pct of oil remaining underground.

The catch involves the energy cost of extraction vs. demand. Hence,

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailycha ... onsumption
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Re: World Oil reserves: declining - but how fast?

Unread postby Pops » Fri 28 Jun 2013, 09:13:36

From the link
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n its report a year earlier, BP had revised global oil reserves sharply higher, citing new technology that made heavy crude grades in Canada and Venezuela economically profitable to extract.


Yep, just what peak oil predicts. Attempting to replacing light, fluid, flowing oil from pressurized reservoirs with tar sands. Which, btw, according to the government isn't actually oil at all.

Canada holds 500 - 1,000 billion "barrels" of tar, depending on the writer. They've been developing the sands for 40 years, reaching a dizzying 3mmb/d today and hoping for 6 in 20 years. The Orinoco has another 250-500 billion "barrels" and optimistic PR projections are 5 mmb/d in 20 years.

As I wrote upthread 4 years ago:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve always thought the R/P ratio was the number to watch but it seems more logical now that as FF prices rise, more and more former Dusters will be deemed to have a "chance of commerciality" and so booked as reserves.


The R/P ratio doesn't and can't take into account that mining bitumen and manufacturing Syncrude can't possibly keep up with fluid crude oil from traditional reservoirs. The most optimistic estimates place production from these 2 regions at only 10-12 mmb/d in 20 years.

IOW, roughly half of all the reserves on the planet can only produce 10-12% of todays demand, even in the rosiest press release world and of course only at a much higher price.


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Re: World Oil reserves: declining - but how fast?

Unread postby John_A » Fri 28 Jun 2013, 10:43:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '
')Luckly there's a mathematical equation for it.
amount_of_oil = lim f(money), for money going towards infinity.

One only needs to solve the equation to get the answer.


Unfortunately, there is a limited amount of oil in the ground, versus paper upon which to print itty bitty numbers. But economics sure seems to be working in terms of conservation, price limits as substitution kicks in, the growth of use and dropping price of alternatives. Maybe economics works because they don't have to work with the extremes in mathematical equations, them being just a social science and all? They certainly seem to have a hand on this oil thing.
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Re: World Oil reserves: declining - but how fast?

Unread postby John_A » Fri 28 Jun 2013, 10:54:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'F')igures for reserves can always go up.


They can also always go down. Matter of fact, they are DESIGNED to go down, in lockstep with consumption. But apparently the recent price increases have dipped deeper into the resource pyramid and then...well....suddenly you have more. Crazy how that works, but then the oil field has never been that easy to understand, jargon here and there probabilistic estimates of things you can't see or feel until you spend millions to get.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
') Even Saudi Arabia argues that for conventional production we still have 75 pct of oil remaining underground.


Argues might be the wrong verb. Maybe they know, them having more money than most, and a good motivation to understand their business far better then others. Certainly this new oil keeps coming from somewhere, the claims of journalists who might not know anything about the industry aside.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')
The catch involves the energy cost of extraction vs. demand. Hence,

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailycha ... onsumption


What catch? That article was written claiming cost was a problem and then...prices came down. Hard to argue then that the demand isn't being filled and even worse, at a lower price. Or was that your point, that demand drove additional supply at greater rates than was needed, and the long term effect is generally lower prices?
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