Is that all that Halliburton will be doing?
I've tried to bring this up before, but the Saudi monarchy needs the cash flow provided by the oil business to stay in power. Making tourist trinkets out of camel dung just won't cut it.
I think there is a real battle brewing over who will get what cut of Iraq. The Saudi monarchy could certainly use a share in Iraq of some kind to help them maintain power. They have several options. They could offer their vast infrastructure to process Iraq's oil (skimming as much as possible to sell as their own). They could attempt to set up a proxy Sunni state in Iraq that paid them fealty and thus financially kept the monarchy's position intact. They could set up a perpetual state of war with their Shiite neighbors (Iran) in order to provide more reasons to justify their existence and stay around past the end of their oil glut. They could crack down on their own populace in hopes of stifling whatever revolutionary sentiment might be stirring there. They could drastically cut exports in hopes of using their own oil to build an economy with hopes of lasting past the crisis. The could blackmail the West in order to gain concessions never before thought imaginable (ie the US abandoning Israel politically and militarily). They might even consider giving up power and allowing their perilous position to ease by taking on a more ceremonial role rather than an active political role in the ruling of Saudi Arabia.
What do you guys think? What other options are there? Will they take an entirely different tack?
PeakOil is You
THE Ghawar Thread (merged)
Re: Halliburton Coaxing More From Ghawar
by evilgenius » Tue 10 Nov 2009, 12:09:47
When it comes down to it, the people will always shout, "Free Barabbas." They love Barabbas. He's one of them. He has the same dreams. He does what they wish they could do. That other guy is more removed, more inscrutable. He makes them think. "Crucify him."
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Re: Halliburton Coaxing More From Ghawar
by dinopello » Tue 10 Nov 2009, 12:15:33
Ghawar - ridden hard, and put up wet.
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Re: Halliburton Coaxing More From Ghawar
by rockdoc123 » Tue 10 Nov 2009, 15:47:05
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat do you guys think? What other options are there? Will they take an entirely different tack?
My view is absolutely. The extended family of a couple hundred princes (I have no idea how many there are) are all very, very wealthy. If you have spent any time wandering off streets along Park Lane in London (eg Curzon street) you will have no doubt seen many of the limos and high end sports cars owned by these same family members. They have a concrete escape plan built on million pound flats in London, mansions on the cote d'azur and yachts in the Med. I doubt that any of them will have a soft spot for their desert homes when the cash flow drys up.
The average underemployed Saudi on the other hand won't know what has happened until the high end malls run out of electricity for the air con units.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)
by Tanada » Tue 20 Nov 2012, 10:09:53
Does anyone have any reliable news on Ghawar production this year? Many of us believed in 2005 that when Ghawar goes Peak is in the rear view mirror. I still believe it but nobody seems to be talking about it any more.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: THE Ghawar Thread (merged)
by Rod_Cloutier » Fri 23 Nov 2012, 01:06:02
This link is from 2007 but it has some startling ramifications:
http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Iraq%20and%2 ... rabia.html
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The primary assumption is that the world’s oil production has been on a plateau for the last two years, and in fact we may be teetering on the brink of the production decline predicted by the Peak Oil theory. Such a decline could be dangerous to the world economy, both directly through the loss of economic capacity and indirectly (and perhaps more importantly) through the loss of investor confidence in the global economic structure.
The second assumption is that the oil production of Saudi Arabia is key to maintaining the global oil supply. Saudi Arabia supplies over 10% of the world’s crude oil, with over half of that coming from one enormous field named Ghawar. There is a large and well-informed body of opinion that believes that if Saudi oil production goes into decline the world will follow because there is not the spare capacity anywhere else to make up for such a decline. Saudi Arabia is notoriously tight-lipped about the state of their oil fields, and in fact oil production information is considered to be a state secret. The only trustworthy information the world really has about Saudi Arabia’s oil are their aggregated production figures.
The conclusion that can be drawn from these two assumptions is that if Saudi Arabia’s production began to decline and the world found out about it, there would be a significant risk of a world-wide economic panic that would destabilize markets and throw nations like the USA into a recession or depression that would be worse than the actual damage done by the loss of the oil. We can assume that the prevention or postponement of such a crisis would be an extremely high priority for the administrations of both the USA and Saudi Arabia.
http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Iraq%20and%2 ... rabia.html
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The primary assumption is that the world’s oil production has been on a plateau for the last two years, and in fact we may be teetering on the brink of the production decline predicted by the Peak Oil theory. Such a decline could be dangerous to the world economy, both directly through the loss of economic capacity and indirectly (and perhaps more importantly) through the loss of investor confidence in the global economic structure.
The second assumption is that the oil production of Saudi Arabia is key to maintaining the global oil supply. Saudi Arabia supplies over 10% of the world’s crude oil, with over half of that coming from one enormous field named Ghawar. There is a large and well-informed body of opinion that believes that if Saudi oil production goes into decline the world will follow because there is not the spare capacity anywhere else to make up for such a decline. Saudi Arabia is notoriously tight-lipped about the state of their oil fields, and in fact oil production information is considered to be a state secret. The only trustworthy information the world really has about Saudi Arabia’s oil are their aggregated production figures.
The conclusion that can be drawn from these two assumptions is that if Saudi Arabia’s production began to decline and the world found out about it, there would be a significant risk of a world-wide economic panic that would destabilize markets and throw nations like the USA into a recession or depression that would be worse than the actual damage done by the loss of the oil. We can assume that the prevention or postponement of such a crisis would be an extremely high priority for the administrations of both the USA and Saudi Arabia.
Might explain why they're considering a war with Iran. The powers that be could further postpone and 'hide' depletion by saying the oil comes from Saudi Arabia, but in fact the oil is coming from Iraq, Iran or some other supplier. Kick the can down the road a little farther for what its worth.
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Re: Halliburton Coaxing More From Ghawar
by Keith_McClary » Fri 23 Nov 2012, 21:31:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'M')y view is absolutely. The extended family of a couple hundred princes (I have no idea how many there are) are all very, very wealthy.
According to Wikipedia$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he family is estimated to be composed of 15,000 members, but the majority of the power and wealth is possessed by a group of only about 2,000.
...
Whether through the co-mingling of personal and state funds from lucrative government positions, huge land allocations, direct allotments of crude oil to sell in the open market, segmental controls in the economy, special preferences for the award of major contracts, outright cash handouts, and astronomical monthly allowances—all billed to the national exchequer—all told, the financial impact may have exceeded 40% of the Kingdom's annual budget during the reign of King Fahd. Over decades of oil revenue-generated expansion, estimates of royal net worth is at well over $1.4 trillion. This method of wealth distribution has allowed many of the senior princes and princesses to accumulate largely unauditable wealth and, in turn, pay out, in cash or kind, to lesser royals and commoners, and thereby gaining political influence through their own largesse.
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