by FatherOfTwo » Fri 03 Jun 2005, 17:56:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('khebab', '2')- some soft landing advocates suggest that we will rely more on electricity and less on oil in the future. This article shows that a bigger grid will give us more frequent blackouts.
I didn’t come to the same conclusion. I think the appropriate quote from that article is :
When you build stuff, it's going to break," says Apt. "The question is: what are the cost-effective things you can do to minimize the consequences?"
As the grid is relied on more and more, it’s true they are going to have to upgrade major parts of the system, or else yes there will be more blackouts. But as those upgrades are made, they will be able to have a system which is better able to handle the load, but certainly not immune to failure.
A good example of this was
New England… during the 2003 blackout the majority of the lights stayed on in New England, essentially because they were better prepared and their reactions were better. There is no reason that other operators can’t do the same things. Also, expecting 100% uptime is unrealistic, there are too many wildcards that are hard to control (eg. companies not maintaining trees) and those that are impossible to control (lightening strikes.)
PS
I consult for one of the major Canadian electrical operators... they run the grid in parts of Western Canada. I also support some of the systems that are used to manage the grid. Grid management, while it may get a lot more expensive, is one of the last things I’m worried about.