[Cloud9]

If Martinson is right, the crunch time comes somewhere in 2013 when the general public comes to realize that peak oil is real. He is right in that all of our current systems are based on growth. It is a given that at every gathering whether it be board room or lunch counter the consensus is that the economy will recover. More are saying this is a rough patch and it is going to take a long time to recover. But still, almost everyone assumes we will recover. Without growth, growth based systems collapse.

In my opinion we are facing a cargo cult. They will not be shaken in their absolute need to believe that the good times of 2005 will return. They will impede any effort to lower the life boats because they will not accept the inevitable conclusion that it is over.

We are still in the denial phase. If the realization strikes home in 2013, that will begin the rage phase.

The general public will go to the polls and vote this November asserting that this can all be fixed if we just put the right man in office. When it cannot be fixed, they will blame the politicians. Then they will blame the bankers. They may even blame the government.

We may fundamentally change our progressive view that government can solve our problems. When the realization that no government committee, law or program will put one more drop of oil in the ground, we will have shattered the perpetual growth paradigm that has been in place for four hundred years.

That my friends will produce a phase shift that will be felt around the world.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'I')f Martinson is right, the crunch time comes somewhere in 2013 when the general public comes to realize that peak oil is real. He is right in that all of our current systems are based on growth. It is a given that at every gathering whether it be board room or lunch counter the consensus is that the economy will recover. More are saying this is a rough patch and it is going to take a long time to recover. But still, almost everyone assumes we will recover. Without growth, growth based systems collapse.

In my opinion we are facing a cargo cult. They will not be shaken in their absolute need to believe that the good times of 2005 will return. They will impede any effort to lower the life boats because they will not accept the inevitable conclusion that it is over.

We are still in the denial phase. If the realization strikes home in 2013, that will begin the rage phase.

The general public will go to the polls and vote this November asserting that this can all be fixed if we just put the right man in office. When it cannot be fixed, they will blame the politicians. Then they will blame the bankers. They may even blame the government.

We may fundamentally change our progressive view that government can solve our problems. When the realization that no government committee, law or program will put one more drop of oil in the ground, we will have shattered the perpetual growth paradigm that has been in place for four hundred years.

That my friends will produce a phase shift that will be felt around the world.

[Daniel_Plainview]

[repost from another thread]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'I')t is the exponential doubling in the last five minutes that trips up our monkey brains.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'I')f Martinson is right, the crunch time comes somewhere in 2013 when the general public comes to realize that peak oil is real. He is right in that all of our current systems are based on growth.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'W')e are still in the denial phase.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'I')f Martinson is right, the crunch time comes somewhere in 2013 when the general public comes to realize that peak oil is real. He is right in that all of our current systems are based on growth.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'W')e are still in the denial phase.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '[')There wont be any sudden collapse when you account for all the demand there is to destroy, natural gas and all the energy efficiency there is to implement. We have a window or a "bridge," even Martenson thinks so. That will put a damper on the hockey stick phenomenon, probably not a big one, but enough to give a portion of the world an opportunity for transition.

[AgentR11]

alert: US specific

I'd like to ping in a little here... there is an assertion that government will seize PM's at some point in the future in the face of devaluation. I know its a popular thing to think, when your baseline approach to things insists that the government is the enemy, and since Bob has x-odd ounces of gold, the malicious government will want to confiscate in, because that will make Bob suffer.

I think this is exactly opposite of what the government is projecting, and in point of fact government seems to favor individual held gold as a buffer against "really really bad outcomes". The government doesn't owe anyone gold. The government doesn't owe anyone silver. The government doesn't even need to care whether O5 paychecks are stated in dollars or millions of dollars. Its just a little ink difference. Everything it owes is ink and paper. Everything it buys is done in ink and paper. Everything it OWNS IS NOT INK AND PAPER. Just consider the trivial assets of all Western public land or GOM oil leases. It owns stuff of real value, and owes stuff of trivial value.

On the other side, everything people owe TO the government, is denominated in that ink and paper. It has value, not because of backing from gold, land, or oil, but because I go to prison if I refuse to fork over the amount of ink and paper that the government says I shall fork over.

Backing an inflating currency with a PM is beyond stupid. They will not do it. It would destroy their budgets, their processes, everything. It will be ink next year, it will be ink a decade from now. Whether Bob is buying bread for $3 a loaf, or $300 a loaf, doesn't matter a hill of beans to the government.

They *WANT* us to hold PMs. (think about the income tax assessment on sold gold that you'll have to declare as bought at $200... when it sells for $2 million, eh?)
They *WANT* us to keep significant food assets.
Anything that brings physical wealth and buffering assets into American possession is a massive positive from the point of view of government.

If anything, they are distressed that the buy-in is so wimpy.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'B')acking an inflating currency with a PM is beyond stupid. They will not do it. It would destroy their budgets, their processes, everything. It will be ink next year, it will be ink a decade from now. Whether Bob is buying bread for $3 a loaf, or $300 a loaf, doesn't matter a hill of beans to the government.

[ralfy]

Best to have combinations of assets: land to plant, some gold (alcohol, ammo, tobacco are good, too), etc. More important, skills needed to survive or to maintain sustainable living (e.g., planting, processing, and storing food, basic health care, etc.), and a community to work with.

[Revi]

I think the problem is that the government has figured out a way to "extend and pretend". They have managed to hold up the system with more and more stimulus and outright money printing. Fortunately thus far it's worked, but when it doesn't any more we'll fall off a cliff. I am afraid of the outcome, so I think we need to extend and pretend for as long as possible. Unfortunately I don't think they'll be able to hold the system up for too much longer whatever they do. I think as soon as the next president gets in there the whole thing could fall down. I visited Greece a couple of years ago and all was fine. Now it's turned into a basket case. What a difference a few years makes.

[SeaGypsy]

5 years ago rural bus routes in Greece had shiny new vehicles with drivers insisting on a large tip to let people on the bus. They thought they could be European (live large on credit) and old school (corruption and who you know makes all the difference) at the same time and prosper. For some reason northern Europeans are much more disciplined than southern. Germany for example should have been one of the first to have big problems, having had to absorb the unproductive east recently. Instead it came out clearly on top (so far). This is totally down to the industriousness of the German people. I doubt it has much to do with government settings.

[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kiwichick', 't')h practician

so you trust paper

been to zimbabwe lately?

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kiwichick', 't')h practician

so you trust paper

been to zimbabwe lately?

[Revi]

Cloud9 wrote:"If Martinson is right, the crunch time comes somewhere in 2013 when the general public comes to realize that peak oil is real"

I don't think anyone is going to realize that peak oil is real. Most people have no clue whatsoever and are easily manipulated. It will be the evil arabs who are keeping them from their oil, or the enviros or whoever they decide caused the problem. They will have no clue what's happening, but they won't have a vehicle running either. They will be pissed off and will take it out on us if we mention peak oil or anything that resembles the truth. Best to be quiet about peak oil and the economic collapse and when people talk about how there is a lot of oil but "they" won't let us drill it just smile and nod.

A former student got a ride from me and asked me how many cylinders my truck has. When I told him that it was a 4 cylinder he told me he would never drive a "4 banger". I asked him if he was too embarrassed to take a ride and would he rather walk, but he was able to overcome his principles and I gave him a ride as far as I was going. He eventually got an 8 cylinder truck going and is now happily getting about 5 miles per gallon. People don't do things because they make sense. This forum is great, but the vast majority of people can't think for themselves and just do whatever their culture tells them to do. They won't know peak oil is what's happening to them and will react angrily when told the facts.

[vision-master]

Gold value is inflated just like diamonds. No, it's NOT a rare mineral.

The only 'gold' thingy I want is a gold chalice.

Why do you think the gods drank from one of these?

[radon]

One thing regarding the link between the population growth and energy consumption growth:

Possibly, the energy consumption should be linked to the growing number of the global aristocracy -"middle class" and above - rather than the growth of the population per se, as of yet. Until very recently, most of the energy consumption and its growth belonged to the first world, whose population numbers and growth were minor compared to the rest of world. So "the last five minutes" should first look at the middle class numbers, and only then - to the entire world's population.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '5') years ago rural bus routes in Greece had shiny new vehicles with drivers insisting on a large tip to let people on the bus. They thought they could be European (live large on credit) and old school (corruption and who you know makes all the difference) at the same time and prosper. For some reason northern Europeans are much more disciplined than southern. Germany for example should have been one of the first to have big problems, having had to absorb the unproductive east recently. Instead it came out clearly on top (so far). This is totally down to the industriousness of the German people. I doubt it has much to do with government settings.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kiwichick', 't')h practician

so you trust paper

been to zimbabwe lately?