Hint: ever heard about animal power?
And I don't necessarily mean "big game" like horses, water bufallos and what have you in the dept. of large energy intake animals. You can successfully employ even an ultralight carriage and two bigger dogs for that matter in shorter distances..
For bicycles, you need roads maintained/repaired regularly at least on the level of 19/20 century turn steam roller, otherwise it's too costly in repairs (spare tires) and efficiency (too hard to pedal).
My take on it is simpe, poor "99%" on foot, small landovers using their animal power from the farm, big honchos and latifundists only enjoy high tech of the day, be it biodiesel powered "cars"/trains/perhaps even regional planes for some time or what have you.
And the most important factor, here is the kicker: the time factor.
As deeper goes the Olduvai staircase the more perception of time changes, which results in slower speeds desired, shorter distances traveled per day etc.
If I'm not mistaken the entire giant grid of Roman highways and rest stops was projected for roughly 30miles per day at the most, and in this fashion with "primitive" technology they were able run armies (and merchant cargo) around the whole empire (left-right/south-north) in months! Not years.
A farcry from todays JIT sytem? Perhaps, but not the end of the world either.
The bicycle, definately yes for the interim,
but not in the stars for the next generations, sorry..
PS just take any "deeper" collapse scenario and bike is a no go: thousands way how to prey on cyclists as easy targers, their regular trip screams "he's got job/business aka easy money/snack to steal from"
PeakOil is You
I just had the hope knocked out of me
Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me
by Mesuge » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 17:58:22
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me
by ObiWan » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 22:32:02
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', '
')And the most important factor, here is the kicker: the time factor.
As deeper goes the Olduvai staircase the more perception of time changes, which results in slower speeds desired, shorter distances traveled per day etc.
')And the most important factor, here is the kicker: the time factor.
As deeper goes the Olduvai staircase the more perception of time changes, which results in slower speeds desired, shorter distances traveled per day etc.
The ranks of fast crashers appear to have been seriously depleted, if a few of the threads on the topic around here are to be trusted. There is always a time factor as you say, for example, the decline of America could take all of this century and some significant fraction of the next. In which case, riding bicycles would not only be a good thing for this generation, but for many more to come.
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me
by xerces » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 23:28:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The Practician', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') don't think there will be many bicycles around. The reason I say this is that almost nobody over 12 who has a job rides one for anything but exercise in the USA.
This is peak oil we're talking about, who says they have a choice? Let me put it this way: You can't afford a car. You couldn't afford to drive it even if you could. There is no public transit. How are you going to get around? I expect informal "public" transportation networks involving re-purposed minivans and the like are bound to be popular choices, but a bicycle starts to look pretty reasonable at that point too.
I'm not saying any sort of transition is going to be quick or that it is going to look anything like the gentrified yuppie version of urban cycling we have in North America today, But I don't really see how the fact that nobody rides a bike for anything but exercise these days means that won't change when current arrangements are no longer possible.
If you look at most third world countries, you would see that the bicycle is the default mode of transportation. It is roughly 4X as fast and 3X as energy efficient when compared to walking. Animal powered wagons are fine and well if you could afford the cost of feeding and caring for an animal, a bicycle would cost far less in comparison. So if after this economic/resource collapse, and America becomes a 3rd world country, I would expect bicycles to be back in style in a big way.
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me
by Mesuge » Tue 20 Dec 2011, 04:37:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ObiWan', 'T')he ranks of fast crashers appear to have been seriously depleted, if a few of the threads on the topic around here are to be trusted.
There is evidently a large boom of prepper's sites and forums on the internets apart from PO.com, the doomer residents of this particular forum just moved on more productive venues. Btw. the timescale of decades is hardly to be considered as fast crashing. The Olduvai staircase makes much more sense every incremental day. Just try a simple mental excercise, plant yourself into circa 1996 timeframe a think about the events and trends, which unfolded up to this date. Rather mindblowing how fast it went isn't?
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