[basil_hayden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')here are no markets anymore, it's all just roulette, there is more money in gambling than making things.

[PeakOiler]

Recognition goes to SeaGypsy this week for the #1 spot:



It's almost time to start thinking about what prices may be in 2012. My suspicion is that the trend towards more expensive oil is inevitable.

[basil_hayden]

Whomever wins will deserve it this year in my view; it's been tough to call when many indicators lean one way and many other lean the other way. I bet you're right PeakOiler about next year when all the indicators lean the same way. In fact, I was contemplating 2012 prices for the next competition and thought I might serve up the DOOM! guesstimate that Roccman and Repent have had for the last few years!

[Pops]

Depending on if/when Enterprise buys the Conoco Seaway line and reverses the flow to the GOM refineries prices could pop quite a bit.

This one will be carrying NGL south by 2013.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'I')t's almost time to start thinking about what prices may be in 2012. My suspicion is that the trend towards more expensive oil is inevitable.

[pup55]

nah, I have to say that this year we have been exceptional forecasters. If it were to end today, and it is a big "if" of course, we would have 10 participants under 20 points.

In 2008, the first year of the PO.com Oil Price Challenge, the co-winners, kmann and lone snark both had 76.82.

In 2009 and 2010 there were only 4 participants with 20 points or under....

So, as a group, we're zeroing in on brilliance.

[pup55]

p.s. based on my limited scanning of the pup55 archive of doom, we'd all do well to listen to basil_hayden, who finished on the top end of the table in 2008 and in the top 10 in 2009 and 2010, and now is a contender for maximum love and respect this year.

I will have to figure out a way to identify and recognize the consistently good performers, just for information purposes because that is also worthy of some measure of love and respect.

[dorlomin]

I expected the economy to tank harder and sooner than it did and did not anticipate the Arab spring\ Libya situation that put me way out of whack.

[wisconsin_cur]

I have to confess that it is only November and I am already awake at night thinking through the trends that I think will drive my 2012 oil price challenge submissions.

[obixman]

This has NOT been my year and next year will be very interesting.

If Europe can't hold it together we could be looking at a slow trainwreck and prices could go lower - depending on your taste in SHTF scenarios perhaps much lower.

On the other hand, demand in Asia may pull the market up quite a bit, we're still pumping the stuff far faster than we are finding it...

There is much to ponder for the pricing contest for next year, but it looks to me like economic-political issues will drive most of the price changes.

[ColossalContrarian]

My numbers aren't working out very well this year but I'm keeping them the same for next year at this point. I agree that with the state of the world today it's terribly difficult to make any type of prediction whatsoever but that's the same way I felt last year.... If anything I'll drop my low to around 72 but I still think there will be some major swings going on.

This year I picked High:137, Low:88, Close:119,

[Midessa]

Man, I don't know what to predict for next year. We still have the Eurozone problem, and it looks like the bubble may be busting in china, so... I will probably guess mostly lower prices for 2012.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Midessa', 'M')an, I don't what to predict for next year. We still have the Eurozone problem, and it looks like the bubble may be busting in china, so... I will probably guess mostly lower prices for 2012.

[PeakOiler]

Everyone is making some good points. There are forces at work that would put both downward as well as upward prices on oil. So that tells me that volatility will be even greater in 2012, i.e. a greater range in prices. I still suspect the average price will be greater in 2012 than in 2011.

Then there's still the "unseen" or "unpredictable" black-swan events that seem to be occurring more frequently than in the past that can easily cause prices to spike. And everyone should know by now that most new oil coming to market is not going to be cheaply produced oil...

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'A')nd everyone should know by now that most new oil coming to market is not going to be cheaply produced oil...

[Pops]

I'm pretty sure the EIA has that info, I've seen it somewhere...

ETA: the API and sulfur content, not the cost.

[Pops]

The thing about black swans is it has become fashionable to predict them arriving at every turn. Look at the gyrations of Wall St trading computers - the are holding onto stocks for only 1-1/2 seconds, down from the buy and hold days of yore when the programs held stocks for 2 second or even longer!

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')'m pretty sure the EIA has that info, I've seen it somewhere...

[Pops]

Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices by API Gravity
http://205.254.135.7/dnav/pet/pet_pri_dfp3_k_m.htm

[Pops]

Percentages of Total Imported Crude Oil by API Gravity:
ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petro ... mtab25.pdf

And here is the killer list...
http://gswindell.com/othrsite.htm