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Peak oil debate

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Old Faithful Peak Oil Debate

Unread postby peeker01 » Wed 24 Aug 2011, 21:44:23

Strings.....how does it feel to be soooooo wrong.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2009/Nov/amk.pdf
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Re: Old Faithful Peak Oil Debate

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 24 Aug 2011, 22:02:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', 'S')trings.....how does it feel to be soooooo wrong.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2009/Nov/amk.pdf


Well.. Peeker, honestly would a genuine "Market Oracle" be trying to make money on SEO Google clicks? The dude has penny stock ads stuck in the article text:

Linkbaiting text deleted. I'm just saying it reads like SEO filler trash. Can you summarize the points for us at least, this writing style gives me a headache I can't wade through it without feeling like I'm reading SPAM and closing the browser.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Wed 24 Aug 2011, 22:26:58, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Linkbaiting text deleted.
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Re: Old Faithful Peak Oil Debate

Unread postby peeker01 » Wed 24 Aug 2011, 22:15:23

Read it yourself strings. He's got a PHd in economics. So what he has google ads on his site.
I'm lookig at a Buick ad as I type.

Why is it always an ad hom attack on people bringing good news? This guy makes some good
points and all you can do is run him down. Not very open minded.
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Re: Old Faithful Peak Oil Debate

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 24 Aug 2011, 22:38:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', 'R')ead it yourself strings. He's got a PHd in economics. So what he has google ads on his site.
I'm lookig at a Buick ad as I type.

Why is it always an ad hom attack on people bringing good news? This guy makes some good
points and all you can do is run him down. Not very open minded.


It's just very poorly written, he's all over the place. No topic paragraphs / sentences. No conclusions, not even a good headline. He keeps "quoting" words that shouldn't be "quoted." Extra words added in for no purpose other than filler, that's why I say it's SEO crap.

Eight paragraphs in, his only point that I can see is that oil demand is down. See that just took one sentence, we all knew that so what the hell is the article about?

This article is such gibberish I can't even find anything to quote, I'm not surprised you can't either.

P.S. The COC says you can't just post a link, you're supposed to read the article and then quote a pertinent portion and then start the thread off with a comment about the content. You did none of that. You refuse to say what "the good news" is, why did you even start this thread if you're not prepared to talk about the content of the article you linked?
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Re: Old Faithful Peak Oil Debate

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 24 Aug 2011, 23:08:17

'Cause he's addicted to doing these kinds of annoying pranks. He should be banned from the site permanently.
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Re: Old Faithful Peak Oil Debate

Unread postby peeker01 » Wed 24 Aug 2011, 23:19:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', ''')Cause he's addicted to doing these kinds of annoying pranks. He should be banned from the site permanently.


If I get banned doobie, who will point out the flaws in your arguments?
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Re: Old Faithful Peak Oil Debate

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 24 Aug 2011, 23:24:47

Why don't we just get on topic. If someone can make heads or tails of the posted article, please tell us what it's about so an on topic discussion is possible.
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Re: Old Faithful Peak Oil Debate

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 25 Aug 2011, 00:10:14

To sum up:
We have oil, and we have not-oil but liquid that is flammable none the less.

Demand for gasoline&diesel is being capped or preemptively destroyed by high prices or poor economic conditions.

It then suggests the we should use natural gas (liquids) to substitute in so that we can bring effective supply back up, so that price will fall, and total transportation energy consumed can resume the rise it was experiencing before things got tight.

In closing, the folks that invested in expensive LNG terminals and such at the time that NG was expensive are getting hosed, and we should feel sorry for them.

My comment:
I think peeky is trying to suggest that because demand is the primary problem, that "Peak Oil" is not real, or is at best a wild conspiracy theory. The reality is that OF COURSE it is demand that is the limiter when expressed as a relation to price. Price being determined by market bidding for who wants it most; and surprisingly the price is holding quite high even in the face of this second Great Depression.

Capped demand is the true expression of peak oil.
Anyone with even the slightest amount of education in economics, finance, or accounting understood that from day one of the issue.

No mention of course about HOW this magic feat would occur, or who would pay for it.

Overall message: "In short, please use more natural gas, my royalty checks look gimpy."
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
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Off Topic PO Debate

Unread postby Bruce_S » Wed 26 Oct 2011, 12:38:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', 'I') think most of the old vanguard proponents missed the mark by assuming a sharp peak whose movement would would be dominated by conventional oil.


Of course. Then someone (maybe even Lynch or Yergin?) invented the plateau routine, and peakers fell all over themselves becoming plateauers. Heaven forbid oil production increases yet again and we start this mess all over again, just like we did in the early 2000's. All of which reveals that they can't predict oil production rates any better than anyone else, but want to stay in the game and not appear as insignificant as their guesses would otherwise indicate.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', '
') We will not be able to afford what is being produced, and there will be nothing less expensive. There will be no alternatives, no choices. That's when the pain sets in.


It is already here. Cheap oil ended some decades ago and it is requiring pain as we speak to even let the alternatives in the door. Fortunately, the alternatives (alternative transport for sure) are here and available for use. Economies of scale, more manufacturers getting into the game, a decent oil price shock higher than the last ones (70's and 2008) and maybe people will start to pay attention. Maybe. Certainly getting out ahead of the curve is a good thing, and as long as we can collect Volts and Leafs and whatnot, Saturday night cruising the local burger joint is still possible.
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Re: A rant about the Peak Oil movement

Unread postby Pops » Wed 26 Oct 2011, 13:30:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bruce_S', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', 'I') think most of the old vanguard proponents missed the mark by assuming a sharp peak whose movement would would be dominated by conventional oil.


Of course. Then someone (maybe even Lynch or Yergin?) invented the plateau routine, and peakers fell all over themselves becoming plateauers.

Anyone care to bet on how long this incarnation lasts? I tire of chasing this intentionally misleading chum quicker and quicker.

Here is the first mention of a production plateau at PO.com in April 2004 about a month after the site went live, it apparently came from an O&GJ article no longer available:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'L')aherrere said: “The problem is that I am not anymore worry about oil supply as the oil demand will be flat (a bumpy plateau) for the next decade”
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: A rant about the Peak Oil movement

Unread postby Bruce_S » Wed 26 Oct 2011, 14:19:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'L')aherrere said: “The problem is that I am not anymore worry about oil supply as the oil demand will be flat (a bumpy plateau) for the next decade”


Peak, or plateau demand isn't peak or plateau supply at all. Nice to see that Laherrere stopped worrying about peak oil 7 years ago though. Deffeyes actually wrote in his book that it wasn't 2010 he was worried about, but the shock induced from the 2005 peak oil he predicted. A prediction he still stands by. And here we are, we've been through the shock he was worried about, and we're into the post-peak timeframe he wasn't as worried about.

Some of these guys maybe did get it right, although I don't think the equations Deffeyes used in his book had any proper explanation of plateau oil either.
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Re: A rant about the Peak Oil movement

Unread postby Bruce_S » Wed 26 Oct 2011, 14:26:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')f cheap oil ended in decades ago and alternatives did not find a market then, why would you argue that alternatives will find a market now? Makes no sense.


Not at all. The markets for alternatives did start in the 70's, otherwise Jimmy Carter would have looked like a complete moron putting solar panels on the White House roof. People started building homebuilt EVs back then, which arrived main stream in the late 90's as hybrids, and the EV1 or electric Toyota RAV4.

Those were the precursors to modern EVs manufactured by Ford, Mitsubishi, Nissan and Chevy, and fuel cell prototypes from Toyota and Honda.

Just because someone doesn't invest billions of dollars the day after the price spikes for crude doesn't mean the innovation isn't there, the investment isn't being made, and presto, I can now run down to the corner Chevy dealer and purchase something which will put the meaning of the numbers hung outside the gas station into the context of "who gives a crap". It took awhile, but the roots for such change stretch back to those high oil prices of the 70's, which certainly were the warning shot across the bows of all crude consuming nations. Using less, demand destruction as substitution and alternatives kick in, is the way of the future. It isn't moving along as fast as you would like? Blame that one peak oil for not having the pizazz many had hoped for. We've had our 20 years to prepare, just like Hirsch required of us. He just didn't understand that it had already started decades before he wrote his 2005 paper.
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Re: A rant about the Peak Oil movement

Unread postby Bruce_S » Wed 26 Oct 2011, 15:04:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou are increasingly sounding like a bot (or Shorty). Read what Pops said. He contradicted your misconception that "peakers" changed their tune, backtracked from a sharp peak.


Incorrect. He quoted Laherrere deciding that peak supply wasn't a problem, but a plateau of demand was. Which has nothing to do with a sharp peak in supply. Are you sure you aren't a bot, implying that just because the quote was claimed to say something, it actually said that something? Go read it again, notice the lack of fear about supply, the fear of plateauing demand instead. It is all right there, you don't need to accept someone parroting what you are supposed to think, read it for yourself.

Oh, and it is unlikely that bots read Deffeyes' book either, and know that he said he wasn't near as worried about 2010 as getting through the first 5 years post peak. Which, again according to him, we have done already because peak happened in 2005. So pat yourself on the back for being one of the 7 billion who made it through, and lets get cracking on saving the planet from the next problem! Carbon sequestration to solve increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere perhaps?
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Re: A rant about the Peak Oil movement

Unread postby Bruce_S » Wed 26 Oct 2011, 15:10:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bruce_S', 'W')e've had our 20 years to prepare, just like Hirsch required of us. He just didn't understand that it had already started decades before he wrote his 2005 paper.
On this we mostly agree. However (unless you are shorty) you will agree a successful EV conversion will depend on a massive investment in infrastructure, only made possible with Big Government support, intervention, and muscle.


I can certainly agree with that. Would you say that all of these things are already happening as well? For example, I will need to invest money (and muscle) in running the dedicated circuit from the electrical box to the garage (not quite massive infrastructure but certainly a big job for me), big government is making it possible by giving me a tax break so I can pay the electrical contractor for the final hookup, and certainly they are subsidizing my purchase of either the Volt or Leaf, maybe the Prius pluggable.

The fuel, at least at work, is currently free. Yee-Haw little doggie! Wonder how long it will stay free? Saves me $1/day fueling costs, but every little bit will help when us early adopters get rolling!
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Re: Off Topic PO Debate

Unread postby vision-master » Wed 26 Oct 2011, 15:23:08

Bruce_S -> shorty? :lol:
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Re: A rant about the Peak Oil movement

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 26 Oct 2011, 15:30:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')
Here is the first mention of a production plateau at PO.com in April 2004 about a month after the site went live, it apparently came from an O&GJ article no longer available:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'L')aherrere said: “The problem is that I am not anymore worry about oil supply as the oil demand will be flat (a bumpy plateau) for the next decade”


Dr. Colin Campbell, the geologist who founded ASPO and coined the term "peak oil" predicted the peak in production in approximately the year 2007, and also predicted a production plateau. Campbell also predicted economic recessions during the plateau due to cycles of high oil prices and a deep global depression when the plateau ends and oil production begins its inexorable drop.

He's batting 1000 percent so far.

Dr. Colin Campbell
Last edited by Plantagenet on Wed 26 Oct 2011, 15:32:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A rant about the Peak Oil movement

Unread postby Bruce_S » Wed 26 Oct 2011, 19:11:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')He's batting 1000 percent so far.

Dr. Colin Campbell


And yet reality can be so different when you actually examine the facts of the matter.....

Image
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Re: A rant about the Peak Oil movement

Unread postby Bruce_S » Wed 26 Oct 2011, 19:15:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')I guess you have not noticed that most of the Western World, all of the Third World, and 9/10 of the population of the Developing World are gripped in the Greatest Recession


Do you have a reference? I haven't seen world GDP figures recently, and just assumed that the world recession ended around the same time the US one did. But a double dip? That is something else altogether.
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Re: Off Topic PO Debate

Unread postby vision-master » Wed 26 Oct 2011, 19:24:58

Shortonsense?
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Re: A rant about the Peak Oil movement

Unread postby Bruce_S » Wed 26 Oct 2011, 20:13:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bruce_S', '
')Do you have a reference?
Reference? That would be you. If you were gainfully employed--you know banking bucks, stuffing the mattress--then you wouldn't be spending idle time investigating the tragedy that is peak oil.


A recession at the global level is not determined by the fortunes of an individual. As far as being a tragedy, according to Deffeyes, he with credentials and someone who correctly predicted peak oil in 2005,we are through the worst of it. This is a good thing I might add, hardly a tragedy.
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