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Oil In The Ground, Fantasy vs. Reality

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Putin sees $309Bln in Oil Investment by 2020

Unread postby Graeme » Thu 30 Jun 2011, 20:27:57

Putin sees $309Bln in Oil Investment by 2020

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')omestic oil companies plan to invest 8.6 trillion rubles ($309 billion) to 2020, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said.

Of that, 5.9 trillion rubles will be spent developing fields and 780 billion rubles will be spent on modernizing refineries, Putin said Thursday at a meeting of the United Russia party in Yekaterinburg.

The prime minister also said one of the government's top priorities is to put conditions in place for small and medium businesses to operate in the oil sector.

The development of small fields and raising well flows is a considerable reserve for sustaining oil production at 500 million tons, he said.

Major investment is needed in exploration, oil recovery and new technology, the prime minister said.

Putin said 60 percent of the 500 million tons of oil that the country produces comes from the West Siberian oil province.


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Re: VENEZUELA Claims 297 Billion Barrels of Proven Oil Reser

Unread postby pana_burda » Mon 18 Jul 2011, 20:26:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;Hemos dicho que tenemos 300.000 millones de barriles, en cambio el Gobierno del presidente (Barack) Obama publicó un informe diciendo que allí se puede recuperar 500.000 millones de barriles. Seguramente así será porque ellos tienen más tecnología que nosotros", dijo el gobernante venezolano.
"We have said we have 300,000 million barrels, whereas the government of President (Barack) Obama issued a report saying that there can be recovered 500,000 million barrels. So it will probably because they have more technology than us," said the Venezuelan leader .


http://el-nacional.com/www/site/p_contenido.php?q=nodo/177461/Econom%C3%ADa/Ch%C3%A1vez:-reservas-petroleras-venezolanas-han-superado-a-Arabia-Saud%C3%AD

As I see it, those figures aren`t drawn out of a magician`s hat. The numbers just respond to a very clear political, and MILITARY agenda, masterminded and primarily promoted by the pro-cuban yet noisy puppet of the empire.
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Re: VENEZUELA Claims 297 Billion Barrels of Proven Oil Reser

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 18 Jul 2011, 20:32:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wiki', 'I')n 2009, USGS updated this value to 513 billion barrels
Who to trust anymore? The article is not clear as to what organization is certifying and decertifying this oil, and by what standards?

Since when do OPEC members have credibility on their oil reserves? Saudi Arabia, you know, the ones we're such great buddies with, never let any independent observers do impartial audits on their oil resources. And their annual stated numbers seem to have NOTHING to do with production, for example.

In OPEC, who to trust, ever?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: VENEZUELA Claims 297 Billion Barrels of Proven Oil Reser

Unread postby babystrangeloop » Tue 19 Jul 2011, 07:57:22

We will be saved by an upcoming invention: a machine that can convert press releases into energy!
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Re: VENEZUELA Claims 297 Billion Barrels of Proven Oil Reser

Unread postby ian807 » Tue 19 Jul 2011, 08:40:24

And I claim that billions of angels are flying out of my derriere, so gosh, it must be true! 8O
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Re: VENEZUELA Claims 297 Billion Barrels of Proven Oil Reser

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 19 Jul 2011, 08:54:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'M')an are you slow on the uptake. :badgrin: See my post above. According to USGS Venezuela just lost 216 billion barrels.


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Re: VENEZUELA Claims 297 Billion Barrels of Proven Oil Reser

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 19 Jul 2011, 11:07:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hese reserves keep enlarging and shrinking, almost by magic.

As far as Venezuela is concerned the increase and decrease in reserve sizes is mainly a product of changing oil price. Venezuela first became the big player in terms of reserve sizes when oil made its rush up to $100 the first time. That meant that both Venezuelan and Canadian heavy oil which were not economic at lower prices suddenly met the test for being classified as 2P reserves under the guidelines recommended by the SEC/AAPG/SPE working group (i.e 50% chance or greater that the volumes could be extracted economically).
In the past the SEC and other regulators used one particular day of the year (I think it was Dec 21) as the price which determined the reserve evaluations they would accept. This was revised a few years ago to be a past yearly average price.
So if in a particular year the average price was $90/bbl and Venezuela was able to book X bbls of oil reserves and in the following year the price dropped to $80/bbl on average then the reserves would have to be adjusted to X-Y bbls where Y is the amount of reserves which would be economic only if oil prices were >$80 and <$90. Again I remind everyone it is really important that it is clear what category of reserves/resources is being referred to. Is it 1P, 2P, 3P, contingent resource or potential resource that is being referred to? The effect of commodity pricing is different in either case as is the effect of technological advancement.
Note that the volumes for Venezuelas heavy oil fields are pretty well known given the fact that there was significantly more involvement of US companies when the majority of the fields were originally discovered. A lot of this information was published in various journals a long time ago.
I believe the real uncertainty with respect to Venezuelan reserves is in the determination of what can be classified as economic. Because Chavez has not been reinvesting in the existing oil field infrastructure and also as a result of most of the PDVSA technical excellence having gone elsewhere it is almost certain that considerably more investment to repair and upgrade existing facilites would be required (higher cost making the economic hurdle higher). The amount of capital that Chavez needs to strip from oil revenues to fund social programs also weighs on the economic value that a particular company can achieve. For example if the contractor take is only 10% in Venezuela versus say 20% in Algeria, the same barrel of oil in the same conditions in Algeria could be economic at a given price whereas it might not be in Venezuela. Because the government requires foreign investment to extract these reserves it is the contractor economics that determines what constitutes reserves.
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Progress to unlocking over 800 billion barrels of oil shale

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 26 Aug 2011, 02:23:44

Progress to unlocking over 800 billion barrels of oil shale

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he EcoShale™ In-Capsule Technology involves heating mined shale in a closed surface impoundment, or capsule. The process relies on conventional mining and construction methods and produces a bottomless oil product that requires no coking. The process produces a shale oil with a much higher concentration of middle distillate than West Texas intermediate crude. Two synthetic shale oil products are produced: (1) prompt oil of approximately 29 API gravity; (2) condensate oil of approximately 39 API gravity. The oil and condensate produced with this process have no fines and have very low acid numbers.

The technology requires no process water, protects groundwater and vegetation, uses low temperatures for heating and allows for rapid site reclamation.

The EcoShale™ In-Capsule Technology process is expected to produce commercially attractive returns to investment at oil prices greater than about US$45-per-barrel.


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Re: Progress to unlocking over 800 billion barrels of oil sh

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 26 Aug 2011, 03:06:39

What production rates can be expected?
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Re: Progress to unlocking over 800 billion barrels of oil sh

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 26 Aug 2011, 04:20:10

Here's some information provided at theoildrum.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')ntil now I have largely, in the recent posts on oil shale, focused on the thicker layers of oil shale in Colorado, but there are places in Utah where the oil shale near the surface is more than 10 ft thick, and where the shale will yield more than 25 gal/ton. With prices of oil fluctuating, the grade at which production becomes possibly economic will vary, but for the following discussion I am going to assume that a ton of ore will yield about ¾ of a barrel of oil. I will also assume, for simplicity, that a ton of shale occupies 14 cu. ft. before it is mined. The plans for the project, at the time of the MineExpo presentation, were that it would be scaled to produce 30,000 barrels of oil per day, at an anticipated cost of roughly $3 billion. This has now been split into plans for a 9,500 bd commercial project prior to that larger operation. Red Leaf, the company, holds leases to 17,000 acres of this shale (with an overall average of 25 gal/ton, ranging up to 70 gal/ton).


Goodness knows how many projects will be constructed. I guess that's up to oil companies and local regulatory authorities.
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Re: Progress to unlocking over 800 billion barrels of oil sh

Unread postby MD » Fri 26 Aug 2011, 10:24:11

30,000 barrels per day from a 3 billion dollar investment? It would be interesting to obtain some estimates for ongoing production and maintenance costs.

I'm sure this will be done in grand scale, eventually. It's going to remain very expensive though. I doubt you will casually zip around the highways with this fuel, long term... unless of course 200+ mpg becomes the norm.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
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Re: Progress to unlocking over 800 billion barrels of oil sh

Unread postby TheDude » Fri 26 Aug 2011, 18:39:06

TomCo Energy aims to deliver with shale oil projects - Proactiveinvestors (UK)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')omCo Energy’s (LON:TOM) re-listing on AIM last month after a two year absence went largely unnoticed by the market though it did not escape the attention of analysts at Optiva, who reckon the re-energised company’s focus on prospects in Utah, USA, will surprise many on the upside.

The company’s first period on AIM ended in August 2009 with a request for suspension of trading in its shares. The move resulted from weak oil prices severely undermining the economics of its key projects.


So apparently $3 billion for 30 kb/d can work. Funny how this monstrous amount of investment is needed to get halfway to the early Ghawar wells' output; cheap oil, anyone? Also tons of clay per day, building roads/NG lines/assorted infrastructure. In that excellent TOD article Graeme links to Heading Out points out the rather obvious fact that just a few drops of water on clay baked to 900F could result in a rather spectacular explosion. Wonder how they're going to account for that possibility; Unita's really dry but you do get a storm every year or so.
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Re: Progress to unlocking over 800 billion barrels of oil sh

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 27 Aug 2011, 18:59:56

Thanks for your comments. Here is another update I saw yesterday that I'd like to post.

Congressmen hear wish list on commercial oil shale

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') congressional subcommittee hearing on "roadblocks" to U.S. oil shale development gave the energy industry, researchers, residents and the Government Accountability Office a chance to sound off Wednesday on what's needed from political leaders.

Dan Whitney of Shell Exploration and Production Co. said his industry needs a stable regulatory environment and one in which numerous companies can lease public land for research projects.

Researchers noted their need for funding and suggested a specific program focused on Western oil shale.

And Anu Mittal of the GAO said the U.S. Department of Interior should be responsible for gathering data on water conditions now, so any potential effects of oil shale activity can be detected years in the future. Her agency in October had recommended collecting baseline data.

They were among 10 speakers at a field hearing in Grand Junction, Colo., of the House Energy and Mineral Resources Subcommittee. Rep. Scott Tipton and subcommittee chairman Doug Lamborn, both Colorado Republicans, conducted the hearing.

Lamborn called oil shale one of the most challenging, tantalizing and promising energy sources the U.S. can offer, with potential to help reduce reliance on foreign oil and create jobs. Oil can be released from the shale by heating it, but companies are still researching commercially viable methods.

"It's important we take this opportunity at this point in time to make sure we are developing, responsibly, American resources on American soil and getting Americans back to work," Tipton said.

The U.S. Geological Survey estimates the country has 4.3 trillion barrels of in-place oil shale resources centered in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming, said Helen Hankins, Colorado director for the U.S. Bureau of Land Management. Not all of it may be recoverable.

Six companies have leases on public land for researching extraction methods, and three more companies' applications for leases are under review. "The more companies that are awarded leases, the more likely we are to be successful in finding a commercial path for oil shale," said Whitney, of Shell.

The BLM is reviewing and potentially revising its 2008 plan for oil shale development following a lawsuit by conservation groups that said environmental impacts weren't thoroughly reviewed.


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Major Countries Burn Up Crude Reserves

Unread postby Graeme » Thu 01 Sep 2011, 19:31:24

Major Countries Burn Up Crude Reserves: Whether Big Oil Is In Trouble

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is something that peak oil advocates have been warning us for a long time; our world using up our last reserves of oil. While the day that the last drip of crude is burned up is a long ways out, some parts of the world may be heading for a major pinch in production.

Until a major discovery occurs, though, there are several big-name oil producing countries that are in jeopardy of using up their proven reserves. Below, we outline five countries running low on oil reserves, and five companies to watch as the oil drama plays out:


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Re: Major Countries Burn Up Crude Reserves

Unread postby americandream » Thu 01 Sep 2011, 19:39:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')b]Major Countries Burn Up Crude Reserves: Whether Big Oil Is In Trouble

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is something that peak oil advocates have been warning us for a long time; our world using up our last reserves of oil. While the day that the last drip of crude is burned up is a long ways out, some parts of the world may be heading for a major pinch in production.

Until a major discovery occurs, though, there are several big-name oil producing countries that are in jeopardy of using up their proven reserves. Below, we outline five countries running low on oil reserves, and five companies to watch as the oil drama plays out:


seekingalpha


Previously nuclear Japan will be fattening its straw as well.
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A White-Hot Future for Oil and Gas

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 19:59:02

A White-Hot Future for Oil and Gas

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')pportunities in oil and natural gas have rarely been so bountiful. New finds and technological advances and fresh access to some countries are pushing exploration and production into areas once considered peripheral.

Some of the most promising new fields are in deep water off the coast of Brazil. Experts say they could yield as much oil as the North Sea. There have been significant strikes off the coast of French Guiana, north of Brazil, and off Ghana in West Africa.

Iraq is opening up after years of sanctions and war. It could be a second Saudi Arabia.

Russia is increasing production in its Arctic regions, while Canada is steadily producing more oil from its abundant tar sands.

In the United States, the vast deposits of natural gas found in shale rock could transform the country into a major energy exporter.

Those prospects “will certainly have significant impacts on the energy map,” said Maria van der Hoeven, the newly appointed executive director of the International Energy Agency, which advises member countries, including Germany, Japan and the United States, on energy policy.


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Re: A White-Hot Future for Oil and Gas

Unread postby Cog » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 20:21:58

How does expensive oil derived from the Arctic, deep water, and tar sands play into your equation of bountiful supplies?
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Re: A White-Hot Future for Oil and Gas

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 10 Oct 2011, 20:40:00

It's a minor point but the article says that there are plentiful opportunities not supplies. However, it also says in the first paragraph that exploration is now moving to areas that were once considered peripheral, i.e. this is a peak oil scenario! One wonders just how much oil will be produced in Iraq. As for price, that is in the hands of the world's economic wizards. . . anybody's guess.
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