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THE Blackouts/Brownouts Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Mon 03 Jan 2005, 12:23:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ukhopadhyay, who has received $2.3 million for materials research at Wright State during the past seven years, said the energy department and power generation companies have a renewed interest in superconductor research. "We are studying the superconducting materials at their basic, atomic level to identify ways that can increase the efficiency of transmission lines. Superconductors can also be used in high speed magnetic trains and flywheels. Flywheels, or high speed rotating devices, can help the power generation companies store off-peak power, which can later be converted to electricity during peak demand hours. All this technology can help reduce the chances of power blackouts like the major one that hit the Midwest and East Coast last year."

http://www.ascribe.org/cgi-bin/behold.p ... 4&public=1
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Unread postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Mon 03 Jan 2005, 17:34:24

the scairy thing is... I'm already ice cream (frozen white mass). I wonder how it could get worse but don't think I really want to find out. actualy maybe a 'frozen dust bunny' would be closer to the truth! :lol:
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Blackout in Moscow : A Warning Sign

Unread postby alexis » Wed 25 May 2005, 11:36:20

Moscow just had a major blackout probably due to old infrastructure.

A warning sign ?

http://www.mosnews.com/commentary/2005/ ... kout.shtml
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Unread postby KiddieKorral » Wed 25 May 2005, 11:57:11

Imagine that happening in January. :(
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Unread postby Russian_Cowboy » Wed 25 May 2005, 14:37:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KiddieKorral', 'I')magine that happening in January:(

Electricity is not used for winter heating in Moscow with rare exceptions. ~95% of all residential property is heated either directly with natural gas or, most of it, with water heated by burning coal or gas at the so-called "heat plants". I heard that a real serious heat outage took place in Moscow in 1979 when the temperature fell below -40 in December, but the city infrastructure was not supposed to handle temperatures below -30.
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Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 25 May 2005, 14:57:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('leaf', 'B')ut signs of NO rioting...Russians are pretty calm.
and that's because vodka is still a dollar a litre! :wink:
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Re: Blackout in Moscow : A Warning Sign

Unread postby heyhoser » Wed 25 May 2005, 15:22:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alexis', 'M')oscow just had a major blackout probably due to old infrastructure. A warning sign ? Link

Maybe a warning to hire more firemen. Remember kids, only you can prevent fire at an electrical substation.[smilie=new_microwave.gif]
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Unread postby Wildwell » Wed 25 May 2005, 15:26:18

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Unread postby clv101 » Wed 25 May 2005, 15:36:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Russian_Cowboy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KiddieKorral', 'I')magine that happening in January. :(

Electricity is not used for winter heating in Moscow with rare exceptions. ~95% of all residential property is heated either directly with natural gas or, most of it, with water heated by burning coal or gas at the so-called "heat plants." I heard that a real serious heat outage took place in Moscow in 1979 when the temperature fell below -40 in December, but the city infrastructure was not supposed to handle temperatures below -30.

Electricity might not being used for heating directly but it's the little thinks like the central heating water pump that is, or even the ignition on the gas boiler.
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Unread postby jaws » Wed 25 May 2005, 16:59:51

Putin is blaming it on Anatoly Chubais. Another oligarch headed for prison perhaps?
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Unread postby frankthetank » Wed 25 May 2005, 18:07:07

What about a fan on a furnace? Last time i checked you need electricity for that...

What would Americans do without American Idol if electricity goes out?
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Unread postby Russian_Cowboy » Wed 25 May 2005, 18:29:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', 'E')lectricity might not being used for heating directly but it's the little thinks like the central heating water pump that is, or even the ignition on the gas boiler.

Unfortunately, you are right. If the electricity is shut off, so are the distribution pumps that take heating water from the city central heating system and pump it to the highrise apartment blocks.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'P')utin is blaming it on Anatoly Chubais. Another oligarch headed for prison perhaps?

Looks like you are right. Putin is getting rid of his potential opponents.
http://www.russiajournal.com/news/cnews ... l?nd=48216
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')OSCOW — RAO UES chief Anatoliy Chubais will be summoned to the general prosecutor's office for questioning in connection with a criminal case filed against the company's management, Natalya Vishnyakova, spokesperson for the general prosecutor's office, has said at a news briefing in Moscow.
"We are aware that presently, he is involved in coping with this failure's aftermath and restoring the power supply, but shortly after that, within the next few hours, he will be summoned to the detective's office for questioning," she said.
Following the investigation, RAO UES managers may be charged with negligence and abuse of authority. The work of each executive and officer responsible for power supply will be evaluated during the investigation. The overall amount of damages caused by the failure will also be estimated. Vishnyakova noted that at present, it was difficult to estimate the scale of violations of citizens' rights in connection with this, but these violations were obviously significant, as human lives and health were put under threat.
The criminal case was filed in connection with blackouts in Moscow and a number of other regions
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Unread postby Kalinka » Wed 25 May 2005, 23:18:26

Another example that shows how the fragility of our civilization... :(
I can't imagine being trapped in Moscow's subway - the distance between stops is huge and it's must be hot as in hell..:(
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Unread postby Starvid » Thu 26 May 2005, 07:03:03

The only thing this shows is that the russians can't take care of their power plants. Okay if power lines fail, they aren't checked everyday, but a plant? There have to be people at it everyday! Also, the plant was built in the fifties, and I figure maintenance wasn't really a priority.
Lesson: Take care of stuff or it breaks.
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More on this

Unread postby Rodimus » Fri 27 May 2005, 05:30:26

Here's more about the Muscovites' reaction.

Wednesday was quite the unusual day for Muscovites - whether they were trapped underground in suddenly still, unlit subway trains, getting stuck in elevators, or simply unable to get to and from work and buy ice-cream. The blackout that Russian officials had said would never happen affected half the city directly and the rest indirectly, by interrupting the traffic and tying up phone lines.

Moscow Blackout: Odd Moments
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Unread postby alexis » Fri 27 May 2005, 09:18:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')uddenly the lights blinked and the hot water stopped running. “Here I am, covered in soap, and thinking, oh ****, the heater has burned out the fuses.” When he discovered the apartment next door also had no electricity, he guessed that his heater had taken out the entire building. “Later we found out that half of Moscow was out. But I still think it was all because of my water heater,” Kaganov says.


[smilie=laughing6.gif] :lol:
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Unread postby Free » Fri 27 May 2005, 16:07:46

Chechnian rebels claim that they commited the act of sabotage that lead to the blackout. Would this be the first case of energy-terrorism? That might bring other people on bad ideas?
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Chaos theory suggests that big blackouts are inevitable

Unread postby khebab » Fri 03 Jun 2005, 11:22:10

An interesting article from IEEE Spectrum (August 2004) about the 2003 blackout:

The Unruly Power Grid
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xtrapolating from the small outages that occur frequently, one might expect a large power grid to collapse only once in, say, 5000 years. But between 1984 (when North American utilities began to systematically report blackouts) and 2000, utilities logged 11 outages affecting more than 4000 megawatts—making the probability of any one outage 325 times greater than mathematicians would have expected. Thus, statistically speaking, the blackout on 14 August, which, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, cost between US $4 billion and $6 billion, was no anomaly
... FOR SYSTEMS THEORISTS like Doyle and Carreras, the first message of their eerily smooth distribution curves is clear: big blackouts are a natural product of the power grid . The culprits that get blamed for each blackout—lax tree trimming, operators who make bad decisions—are actors in a bigger drama, their failings mere triggers for disasters that in some strange ways are predestined. In this systems-level view, massive blackouts are just as inevitable as the megaquake that will one day level much of Tokyo. Just the same, accounting for that inevitability is a contentious exercise.

Conclusion: bigger grid = chaotic system = more blackouts

Two observations:
1- some say that the Olduvai theory has predicted these balckouts and they are precursors of the coming Olduvai "cliff" (see thread Review of the Olduvai Gorge);
2- some soft landing advocates suggest that we will rely more on electricity and less on oil in the future. This article shows that a bigger grid will give us more frequent blackouts.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Sun 15 Feb 2009, 18:11:07, edited 3 times in total.
Reason: Merged with THE Blackouts/Brownouts Thread; Deleted broken [img] link.
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Re: Chaos theory suggests that big blackouts are inevitable

Unread postby FatherOfTwo » Fri 03 Jun 2005, 17:56:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('khebab', '2')- some soft landing advocates suggest that we will rely more on electricity and less on oil in the future. This article shows that a bigger grid will give us more frequent blackouts.


I didn’t come to the same conclusion. I think the appropriate quote from that article is :

When you build stuff, it's going to break," says Apt. "The question is: what are the cost-effective things you can do to minimize the consequences?"

As the grid is relied on more and more, it’s true they are going to have to upgrade major parts of the system, or else yes there will be more blackouts. But as those upgrades are made, they will be able to have a system which is better able to handle the load, but certainly not immune to failure.

A good example of this was New England… during the 2003 blackout the majority of the lights stayed on in New England, essentially because they were better prepared and their reactions were better. There is no reason that other operators can’t do the same things. Also, expecting 100% uptime is unrealistic, there are too many wildcards that are hard to control (eg. companies not maintaining trees) and those that are impossible to control (lightening strikes.)

PS
I consult for one of the major Canadian electrical operators... they run the grid in parts of Western Canada. I also support some of the systems that are used to manage the grid. Grid management, while it may get a lot more expensive, is one of the last things I’m worried about.
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