[OilsNotWell]

And this site, which is FLUNET - the GLOBAL INFLUENZA SURVEILLANCE NETWORK, which for some reason my browser won't let me through....

http://rhone.b3e.jussieu.fr/flunet/www/

Here's a description of the site:

The World Health Organization links national influenza centres and collaborating centres for global influenza surveillance through FluNet.

[OilsNotWell]

I changed this thread's title to something more understandable for the uninitiated (WSN/33 and H5N1 are influenza A viruses)

[OilsNotWell]

As I said, China has and will take bird flu seriously. They have closed nature preserves and rushed 3 million doses of available vacinne...these are compulsory, not optional. They will escalate response as necessary without hesitation. However, it is, and will be, a losing battle, in my opinion. It is endemic already, and has already evolved to other hosts. I also would not be surprised to learn that China will also perform 'other measures'...meaning bird kills, quietly. Tragic, yes, but would not be surprised.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hina takes emergency steps as bird flu found
Mon May 23, 2005 9:51 AM ET
BEIJING (Reuters) - China has sealed off nature reserves and rushed more than 3 million doses of bird flu vaccine to a remote western province after migratory birds were found dead from the H5N1 strain, which can be fatal to humans.

Poultry across far-flung Qinghai province, neighboring Tibet and Xinjiang, had become the "target of a compulsory vaccination campaign," the China Daily newspaper said on Monday.

Reuters

[OilsNotWell]

There has been a marked increase in the news coverage regarding bird flu, particularly with H5N1 being found in well over 500 birds the western province of China. If one wants additional details, check the Recombinomics site, or other sites I have linked to in earlier posts. Google News works too.

Dr. Niman is basically suggesting that the Pandemic of 2005 may have begun, and we may be in stage 5 at the moment. If the connection to the Indian meningitus infections and deaths is made, then we are in early stage 6. I honestly don't know. It's readily admitted by most health authorities that we are in Stage 4, however, and definitely within a whisker of 5 at the very least

China abrubtly recalled its envoy to a high level meeting with the Japanese prime minister Koizumi, due to an 'urgent crisis'. This Chinese envoy (a vice-premier) was formerly part of the health ministry overseeing bird flu and SARS efforts, I believe. No other explanation was given and the Japanese were left insulted. This was a meeting to help assuage tensions between China and Japan (which we know at its heart particularly relate to energy use and the balance of power in the region). I also have not forgotten that 10,000 sick from flu in the city near Hong Kong at around the same time, and wonder if they were tested for H5N1...

I found this and some other very interesting photos that will give you an idea of just how serious China is taking this issue, and also to illustrate some cultural aspects of this issue.

There was an important reason I posted the photo about the yaks getting their feet disinfected...which you will realize as I post these other photos..
The dead migratory and other birds in the nature preserve occured last month and earlier this month. Thus, these pictures will speak to themselves about how widespread, and in what forms, the virus may be spreading...


Chinese health workers seal off an infected chicken farm in the hills of Juchao district, July 2004. China has ordered emergency measures to stop the spread of bird flu after discovering some migratory birds had died from the H5N1 virus.(AFP/File)


A Chinese health worker disinfects a motorcycle in the western Chinese town of Qinghai May 22, 2005. China has rushed more than three million doses of bird flu vaccine to the remote western province after migratory birds were found dead in the region from the H5N1 strain which can be fatal to humans, state media said on Monday.

For other pictures as part of a slideshow, and for an important story, go here:

Mass poultry vaccination as Chinese urged not to panic over bird flu-Yahoo News

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')EIJING (AFP) - China urged people not to panic as it scrambled to vaccinate three million birds in response to the first confirmed outbreak of avian flu in nearly a year.

The massive containment effort was underway in the western province of Qinghai after the government said the deaths of migratory birds there were caused by the H5N1 strain of avian flu, which is potentially lethal to humans.
...
When news first broke about the dead migratory birds earlier this month, an official with the Qinghai provincial administration for wild animals and plants told AFP it was "not bird flu".

On Monday, the same administration said it had jumped to the conclusion because it lacked the experience. [Poster's comment: they have since formally notified intl agencies it was tested to be H5N1]
...
In the ongoing vaccination effort, domesticated birds in the area near Qinghai Lake were vaccinated first, followed by poultry raised close to the migratory route of the birds, according to the China Daily.

From these priority areas, vaccinations would spread to all other parts of Qinghai, the paper reported. The entire province will have been covered in about two days' time, it said.

Some agricultural experts wondered if it would be physically possible to vaccinate so many birds in such a brief period of time.
...
Bird Island, a 0.27-square-kilometre (0.1-square-mile) sanctuary in the middle of Qinghai Lake, was sealed off. Health officials had established two inspection and quarantine stations on the road to the island.

The island is a major interface for contact between humans and birds as large numbers of tourists go there every year to watch its estimated 100,000 swans, cranes and gulls.

[OilsNotWell]

Time to post a few more maps and demographic info:

We're looking at Bird Island, Qinghai, China and the route from India...



Bird Island is in that large lake in the upper NE corner of Qinghai



Which fortunately is not TOO close to highly populated areas...yet..










$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Chinese like to say that if the Qinghai Lake were a crown on the head of the plateau, then the Bird Island (Niao dao) would be the largest pearl on it. This island, in fact a large rocky peninsular that juts from the lake, is located in the northwest corner of the lake, near to the Buha River.

The island holds its name due to the approximately 10,000 birds that, at different seasons throughout the year, migrate here from all over the world. Of the rarer species that can be found, included are Griffon vultures, Mongolian larks, black-necked cranes, bar-headed geese and giant swans. For those not ornithologically wise, there are more common varieties that can also be found including gulls, cormorants, egrets, sandpipers, skylarks, swans, geese, crows, minivets and many more. Because of the highly saline and cold waters, the huge lake teems with fish and it is this that makes it the perfect breeding ground for many of these species. The island has a number of bird watching pavilions and is nice to simply wander about, with the vivid and contrasting colours that are a part of the lake's scenery.

The optimum time for bird watching is between March and July, when many of the birds migrate here to breed and take their summer holidays. If you can weather the cold and are an intent bird watcher, November to February are the time to catch the famed giant swans. The island also contains the Longbao Black-necked Crane Sanctuary, a conservation project for these protected species.

[gg3]

Yow!, one of those sources you mentioned contains information that either is or should be classified. I'm not going into any more detail about that except to say I've thought of a whole lot more scenarios than those. I send them upstream to where they might do some good, and I don't publish them. People really need to think first before they speculate in open forums.

Meanwhile, yeah I agree we're at stage 5 and about to tip over to stage 6.

And that picture of the island in China where all those migratory birds hang out: eeyow! That place is probably ankle-deep in infectious bird poop. And a perfect opportunity for cross-infection, mixing, etc. etc.

How many days can H5N1 remain infectious in poop? How long does it take for solar UV to kill it?

We can't just go killing off migratory species. That would screw up ecosystems upstream and downstream that we don't have a clue about.

And, reductions in bird populations may lead, directly or indirectly, to explosions of insect populations. I'm thinking mosquitos.

Last but not least: I have a neighbor who keeps chickens. Should I be scared yet...? Or soon...? Or do I just keep the windows closed and duct-taped when the pandemic gets here...?

[OilsNotWell]

gg3, I've read that H5N1 can remain infectious for quite some time. It was in one that OSHA link I posted I believe. These viruses have been evolving for millions of years, and you may be surprised at just how long they can live...

And I would agree with you that killing off all the birds would be a disaster. I just read 200 MILLION chickens have been slaughtered to try and bring this under control. Yet it keeps on coming. And it will.

China can try to continue to say things like this:

China tells UN bird flu outbreak under control
RadioAustralia

and this:

Bird flu outbreak in Qinghai an 'isolated' case
China Daily

but I believe that such pronouncements,like the earlier one that said the bird deaths were definitively NOT H5N1, may be just a a temporary attempt to prevent panic, which of course, is not good, but it does have the effect of getting results rather quickly, and time certainly seems to be of the essense. To give you an example of their knee-jerk reactions and statements, here's a prime example:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hina rules out bird flu after mysterious deaths of 178 geese

BEIJING: China Monday ruled out bird flu as responsible for the deaths of 178 spot-headed geese in a nature reserve, but was unable to say what had killed them.

Local officials and state media said the geese had been dying since May 6 at the Qinghai Lake Nature Reserve in the northwest province of Qinghai.

"I can confirm these birds have died but it is not bird flu," said an official who refused to be named at the Qinghai provincial administration for wild animals and plants.

ChannelNewsAsia

[OilsNotWell]

Just to follow up on my reporting of the cancellation of the meeting between the Chinese vice-premier and Japanese prime minister Koizumi, the Chinese are saying it was for another reason relating to a Japanese leadership visit to a war shrine. But even in this article there are contradictions on whether 'sudden internal commitments' (bird flu is a good guess) played a part. For whatever reason, the tension between these two powers are not a good sign in a peak and post-peak world.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Lowest point in Sino-Japanese relations since 1972

Relations between China and Japan are at their lowest point, says Chinese Vice-Premier Wu Yi, who called off a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi yesterday.

Tokyo (AsiaNews/Agencies) – A chill wind is blowing over Sino-Japanese relations after Chinese Vice-Premier Wu Yi snubbed Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi yesterday by abruptly calling off a meeting scheduled in Tokyo, citing “work demands”.

The cold shoulder comes a day after Chinese President Hu Jintao warned Japanese leaders that their visit to the Yasukuni war shrine in Tokyo could damage ties between the two countries “in an instant”.

Last night, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan indicated the last-minute cancellation was linked to Japanese leaders' repeated remarks about visits to the controversial shrine. “We think it was very inappropriate to make those remarks while Vice Premier Wu Yi was visiting,” Assistant Foreign Minister Shen Guofang.

Shen reiterated that “sudden internal” commitments at home had been the main reason for calling off the meeting.

AsiaNews

[OilsNotWell]

Well, I guess there's more to this story than meets the eye:


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Chinese leader recalled over bird flu fears

China's Health Minister yesterday cut short a visit to Japan as the country's health and agriculture agencies took emergency steps to stop a deadly bird flu outbreak.

Vice-Premier Wu Yi, who also holds the health portfolio, cancelled a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, citing urgent duties back in China.

Although some reports said this might have been a snub related to Mr Koizumi's insistence that his visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine honouring Japan's war dead were personal rather than official, Japanese officials said they had been assured this was not the case.

Fairfax Digital

[OilsNotWell]

Here's something positive: red grapes could help with the flu!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')esveratrol may have anti-flu activity
Tue May 24, 2005 11:29 AM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters Health) - Resveratrol, a chemical found in red grapes, blocks replication of the influenza virus in cell culture and in animals, Italian researchers report.

"Resveratrol merits further investigation as a potential weapon for combating the growing threat of influenza," Dr. Anna Teresa Palamara of the Institute of Microbiology in Rome and colleagues conclude.

In cell culture experiments, resveratrol prevented influenza from replicating.

Resveratrol treatment had the greatest effect when administered 3 hours after exposure to influenza. Smaller but significant effects were seen when treatment began 6 hours after infection, but at 9 hours after infection resveratrol treatment had no effect. Pre-treatment also did not change susceptibility to infection.

Studies in a mouse model of influenza showed that injections of resveratrol after inoculation of influenza increased survival by 40% compared with placebo injections. The amount of virus present in the lung 6 days after infection was 98% lower in the resveratrol-treated mice.

Resveratrol 's anti-influenza activity seems to center on its ability to interfere with key "host-cell functions" that are essential for virus replication, the authors explain in The Journal of Infectious Diseases.

SOURCE: Journal of Infectious Diseases May 15, 2005.
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle....storyID=8589925

[OilsNotWell]

For all bird lovers out there, unfortunately, I see a catastrophe looming in what the human response to bird flu will be..

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')hilippines culls 500 parrots on bird-flu fears

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Philippines culls 500 parrots on bird-flu fears
GENERAL SANTOS, Philippines, May 24 (Reuters) The Philippines culled about 500 parrots imported from Indonesia as part of efforts to prevent the spread of the bird-flu virus from other Southeast Asian countries, officials said today.

DepikaGlobal(India)

[OilsNotWell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Bird Flu Scare Eases in Chinese Province
DailyNewsCentral

[gg3]

Re. red grapes: Excellent news; any word about red grape juice? I drink some grape juice every day; seems like it would be prudent to drink it three or four times a day. Question is, now much..? And for those who prefer wine, is this stuff present in wine?

Note: Don't drink too much grape juice at one time. You'll get a nasty case of diarrhea for about 24 hours. Speaking from experience. Perhaps there's a way to increase the quantity of grape juice slowly over a period of days or weeks to avoid the diarrhea, I haven't tried this yet but probably will.

Re. bird lovers: That term always conjures up pictures of people like the anti-abortion crusader Horsely who admitted to "doing" mules and probably "did" chickens also. But seriously, my answer to people who want to keep exotic pets is, tough s***. With the public health risks involved, the exotic pet trade should be brought to a grinding halt, with penalties for simple posession and serious prison time for trafficking.

If people want to keep birds as pets they can stick to local species. Starlings, wrens, finches, maybe a chickadee or a tufted titmouse or two, or a couple of pigeons if you live in the city. Or if you want something colorful, a cardinal. Or if people want those green and yellow twitterbirds (whatever you call them), breed them in captivity. But really, birds deserve to fly, not be stuck in cages. Generally, people should not be keeping wild animals as pets, that is a disease risk just waiting to explode one way or the other.

Re. China/Japan: China may have told Japan behind the scenes, "bird flu, gotta go, keep this a secret please," and the offended-noises are just for public consumption to keep a lid on the secret. However see also the June issue of The Atlantic re. military issues involving China. Interesting article (it's the cover story).

Silly humans, thinking they can screw around with nature and not get in trouble. A human population of 2 - 3 billion is sustainable. And one way or another, that's where we're headed.

[OilsNotWell]

I'd pick grapes over grape juice myself...Why?

If you live in the US, chances are your water is fluoridated...

And, in particular, grape juice is several times over the recommended daily 'safe' dosing for this poison. You see, it's in soda, food grown with, and prepared with, flouridated water, juice drinks, etc.

Yes, I said that. It's poison. It's a toxin. Despite what all the dentists say, it's a leftover chemical waste from Aluminun and fertilizer processing, and the approach to deal with this very expensive to dispose of toxic waste has been to sell the public on a bill of goods about its supposed dental hygiene affects. The funny thing is, study after stuy shows that when one compares cities that flouridate v. don't, guess which one has less decay? Right, the non-flouridated one!

Do a google search for flouridation and its dangers, (I spent lots of time doing research), and it will convince you I think. The way flouride (by the way, there is no such thing as "flouride" it's a misnomer. It's a toxin related to the chemical flourine that you see on chemistry charts. That's why there are warning labels not to swallow it.) It's one of the known toxic byproducts from the nuclear age, the 40's, and the 'studies' that have been relied upon that supposedly show its safety and efficacy are hogwash. Alcoa, the aluminun producer, was heavily involved in the promotion of flouridation legislation in Congress - gee, I wonder why? They get to SELL their toxic waste for lots of money intead of spending money to neutralize it. It truly is a massive health fraud. Most countries in the world either ban it or do not flouridate. Most children are experiencing very high doses. One of the largest poisoning disasters occured in PA in the 50's, with dozens of deaths, and it was completely whitewashed. The 'studies' from the 40's that supposedly showed it was safe, are now admitted lies from the very scientists who wrote them. In fact, when they said it 'decreased tooth decay', it was because many had lost their teeth from these experiments!

But don't take my word for it, many of the health authorities have stated it's one of the largest and most massive health frauds in the 20th century.

http://www.fluoridation.com/

and this one:

http://www.mercola.com/2000/sep/3/fluoride_forbes.htm

[jesus_of_suburbia_old]

I have never been stricken with flu in my life. I'm really surprised I haven't contracted something nasty within the past two years. I guess you could say I am/was fairly high risk. I took the train into the city everyday, as well as rode a damp, dirty CTA bus with people who don't exactly cover their mouths when they cough. I work part-time at the pharmacy America trusts, where sick people flow in and out off. I handle sweaty, disgusting cash regularly. I wash my hands after restroom use but its not exactly my top priority to do so many other times. I'm no health nut, nor do I catch much sleep. I have a younger brother in kindergarden who brings home all kinds of bacteria and germs.

Hopefully, my luck doesn't run out come this flu season.

[smallpoxgirl]

I got the flu a couple of times when I was a little kid. Only had it once in the last 25 years or so. That was about 4 days after I got my one and only flu shot. All the medical text books say that it's a killed vacine and you can't get the disease from the vaccine, but aint nobody putting that in my arm again.

[heyhoser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'I') got the flu a couple of times when I was a little kid. Only had it once in the last 25 years or so. That was about 4 days after I got my one and only flu shot. All the medical text books say that it's a killed vacine and you can't get the disease from the vaccine, but aint nobody putting that in my arm again.

[OilsNotWell]

Yes, off topic, but interesting. Vaccination takes the same virus that causes the disease and attentuates, or weakens it, to provoke an immune response such that the body learns how to fight the real deal. With these, there are always some percentage of deaths or adverse reactions from it depending upon how people react to it. They say it's all for the greater good, however. It really is true, that which does not kill us makes us stronger. Jes. of Sub., who told of how many germs she/he gets exposed to actually is more resistant to many things BECAUSE of that exposure. Indeed, preschool children who have gone to group daycare are sick less often in kindergarten than children who did not because they had been exposed to, and developed immunities to, more bacteria, viruses, etc. But sometimes problems arise because either the immune system is weakened or compromised, or the virus or bacteria is so strong or novel, left untreated, etc.

As far as strange reactions from vaccinations go, some may know about the epidemic of autism in children within the last 15 years or so. (Time ran a cover story on it last year) I personally know 3 children within my circle of acquaitance and family that have been diagnosed with differing forms of autism, and one parent is so outraged at her belief in the connection between certain inocculation and autism that she became a Congressional lobbyist to advocate for legislation on this issue.

[Barbara]

Jesus of Suburbia is so heavily exposed to germs that he became immune, I think.
About me, I never had a flu (colds yes, of course! but always without fever) neither a flu shot. And I never understand how is it possible, when I see all my colleagues dropping sick every winter on days and days of fever, while I remain healthy!
Hope I have some sort of immunity...

Anyway, this is my tip: check NAC, or N-acetylcysteine on the Net. I think it's a wonderful thing for the immune system. I got it for two months some yers ago becuse of ear problems, and I didn't get a cold for ONE YEAR, my health was absolutely perfect for months and months! Check it, it's cheap too.

[Triffin]

Bird Flu update ..

http://news.google.com/news?q=h5n1+qing ... n&oi=newsr

Triff ..