$22 Oil For 140 years : Open Topic Discussion - Page 2

Re: $22 Oil For 140 years

by ian807 » Tue 21 Jun 2011, 10:30:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hughj', 'O')K Ian, I'll bite. So it is your considered opinion that these large price fluctuations are caused by Peak Oil and not OPEC's supply constraints? Got any proof of that?

I don't think the current fluctuations are cause by peak oil. We still have too much price elasticity. I think the current price increase is largely a supply and demand issue, caused by the fact that oil output seems to have peaked in 2006 but demand has not. Prior to that, it looks like the Saudis could control prices by increasing output. They no longer seem to be able to do that, at least not quickly, and at the price of depleting their fields more quickly. It looks like we are on the start of the oil supply downslope (http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/WEO2010_ES_English.pdf), but not yet too far in. Feedback effects haven't kicked in yet and probably won't until gradual depletion starts causing worldwide supply chain problems, or resource nationalism kicks in.

ian807

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$22 Oil For 140 years

Re: $22 Oil For 140 years

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