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How About Some Good News?

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How About Some Good News?

Unread postby Hughj » Sun 19 Jun 2011, 13:44:05

Well here it is! http://www.oil-price.net/

Isn't the supply/demand curve a wonderful thing. OPEC cheating on supply, tanks are full, prices fall. They can only store so much of the stuff. If history is any indicator we're on our way to 30 bucks.
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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby diemos » Sun 19 Jun 2011, 14:10:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hughj', '
')Isn't the supply/demand curve a wonderful thing.


Indeed. If you throw enough people out of work and shut down enough businesses you can reduce demand below available supply and get the price down to it's marginal cost of production.

But not in a fun way for the people who have to be thrown out of the middle class in order to achieve it. Great for the rest of us though.

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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby Hughj » Sun 19 Jun 2011, 14:26:08

No sir, demand is up.....Looks like a supply problem (too much supply).

Demand
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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby Loki » Sun 19 Jun 2011, 14:43:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hughj', 'N')o sir, demand is up.....Looks like a supply problem (too much supply).

http://www.gosanangelo.com/news/2011/ju ... -in-14511/

Sweet, looks like peak oil is over. Whew, that was easier than I expected. We can shut down PO.com now....
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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby diemos » Sun 19 Jun 2011, 15:27:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hughj', 'N')o sir, demand is up


Don't think so, consumption is down.
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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby Bill Hicks » Sun 19 Jun 2011, 15:42:45

Exactly what deflationists like TAE have been predicting for awhile now--oil dropping to $20 but nobody being able to afford it because most people are out of work.

Good news? Not hardly. An indicator of a worldwide economy on the brink of another crash, more likely.
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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby Hughj » Sun 19 Jun 2011, 16:10:28

Cheer up Bill. We are experiencing a global economic cycle. Many cycles before us, many to come.


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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby SpockLives » Sun 19 Jun 2011, 16:24:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hughj', '
')They can only store so much of the stuff. If history is any indicator we're on our way to 30 bucks.
Hugh


Cease and desist! Optimism and ANY prediction of the future not involving skyrocketing prices, a crashing economy or fiscal collapse in general (those being the new consequences of peak oil a few years back) are not acceptable. You also can't talk about solutions (those which are just possible or those which are already happening) or speculate on the possibility that BAU can continue as long as the oil does (by easy extrapolation, somewhere into the next century).

Please limit your comments to channeling Malthus and Ehrlich, or any poster more Doomerish than yourself, that is always permitted. Now go forth and sin no more my son.

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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby SpockLives » Sun 19 Jun 2011, 16:25:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hughj', 'N')o sir, demand is up.....Looks like a supply problem (too much supply).

http://www.gosanangelo.com/news/2011/ju ... -in-14511/

Sweet, looks like peak oil is over. Whew, that was easier than I expected. We can shut down PO.com now....


Just change its name to something more realistic. GlobalWarmingIsUs.com or AllPoliticalAllTheTime.com?
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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby Hughj » Sun 19 Jun 2011, 16:33:41

Paul Ehrlich.....now there's a visionary. Wonder what he is doing now?

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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby SpockLives » Sun 19 Jun 2011, 16:48:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hughj', 'P')aul Ehrlich.....now there's a visionary. Wonder what he is doing now?

Hugh


Writing another book about the end of humanity...only this time, moving the predictions far enough into the future that people will get another good chuckle out of them only after he is dead?
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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby Novus » Sun 19 Jun 2011, 20:27:17

The question of oil is a multi headed beast that can't be answered with simple catch phrases. Each of the concepts could easily fill an entire book on their own so it easy for newbies to come in here and pick a tiny piece of the total theory and say peak oil is disproved. It is easier just call them morons and leave it at that because time is precious and it can be better put to use than arguing with idiots. But before anyone starts to doubt the true theory here know there there are some things that cannot be easily dismissed. One is oil is a finite resource while our industrial demand for it is practically infinite. Our entire society is based on infinite growth. Infinite growth does not mesh with a reality of finite resources. In the near future we are going to have to come to terms with that and learn to live in a world were growth is no longer possible.
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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 19 Jun 2011, 20:51:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hughj', 'W')ell here it is!

http://www.oil-price.net/

Isn't the supply/demand curve a wonderful thing. OPEC cheating on supply, tanks are full, prices fall.
They can only store so much of the stuff. If history is any indicator we're on our way to 30 bucks.

Hugh

You missed the The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge.

In view of the events since the new year, it would be interesting to have a 20111/2 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (i.e., from July 1 2011 to July 1 2012) to see if people have changed their predictions. And Hugh can enter his 30 bucks.
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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby peripato » Sun 19 Jun 2011, 21:35:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'T')he question of oil is a multi headed beast that can't be answered with simple catch phrases. Each of the concepts could easily fill an entire book on their own so it easy for newbies to come in here and pick a tiny piece of the total theory and say peak oil is disproved. It is easier just call them morons and leave it at that because time is precious and it can be better put to use than arguing with idiots. But before anyone starts to doubt the true theory here know there there are some things that cannot be easily dismissed. One is oil is a finite resource while our industrial demand for it is practically infinite. Our entire society is based on infinite growth. Infinite growth does not mesh with a reality of finite resources. In the near future we are going to have to come to terms with that and learn to live in a world were growth is no longer possible.

For the chronically optimistic, the iron laws of the physical world are no obstacle...
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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 20 Jun 2011, 11:24:29

Actually I was going to start a topic with this very title this morning.

Of course I wasn't going to say that oil was headed to $30 - as Bill pointed out above that would be very bad news indeed. In fact, I'm kind of surprised there are that many people who actually read about peak oil and still go to the trouble of denying it or actually trying to convince the populous of the myth of endless cheap oil.

Like I said over here:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ouldn't it be a kick in the pants if everyone were wrong and the world economy pooped out at $125/bbl? And wouldn't it be even crazier if instead of the oil price stair-stepping up with each cycle, the economy just kept getting less resilient and each go around the high price was actually lower than the last time?

I think that is where we're headed if people like the OP get their way, just keep clinging to the non-negotiable lifestyle till you drown.

Frankly, I'm confused as to how oil companies could survive selling oil for less than cost for any length of time. This was a chart originally posted at TOD (sorry, can't remember by who) but even more surprisingly, this version is from CERA if you can believe it (who've been forecasting $30 oil since about '02 - and getting paid to do it)

Image

So, anyway, I'm not holding my breath for $30 oil, in fact, the best news right now is oil at around $80-$90. Why? The simple fact is the economists were right all along, the magic hand will find a solution to scarcity but there needs to be a clear price signal before that can happen. $30 oil ain't it.

Unfortunately, when most people hear "the Market will provide" they automatically think "more oil". But, the evidence is pretty clear that oil is finite in a practical sense and oil in formations and forms allowing fast and cheap rates of extraction are becoming scarce. So how will the market respond?

That was the archdruid from a few weeks ago:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ronically, one of the changes that has most often been dismissed as completely out of reach – the suggestion that Americans can and should use a great deal less energy and resources – is one that shows the strongest signs of catching on.


Although I don't know what a druid is, since his main hobby horse is named "Catabolic Collapse" I take that post about austerity becoming fashionable as a good sign.

But even better, and the good news I was going to post, was this survey I heard about over the weekend. From Coldwell Banker via RIS:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ccording to a new Coldwell Banker survey among its network of real estate professionals, 75 percent said that the recent spike in gas prices has influenced their clients’ decisions on where to live, and 93 percent said if gas prices continue to rise, more home buyers will choose to live somewhere that allows for a closer commute to their work.

The Desire to Be Close to Work, or Work from Home
Out of those who said gas prices affect where consumers want to live, being closer to work was the leading consideration.
“The decision to buy a home has always been tailored around the personal, multi-faceted lifestyle needs of each buyer,” says Jim Gillespie, CEO of Coldwell Banker Real Estate. “Today, rising fuel costs and a person’s decision to commute or perhaps work remotely are additional factors of the decision home buyers must consider.”

An Increased Interest in Urban Living
One trend continuing to rise in popularity, partly because of the gas price phenomenon, is the interest in urban living.
According to those who have seen an increased interest in urban living, other reasons behind this trend are:

That is good news.
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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby Hughj » Mon 20 Jun 2011, 13:36:59

Indeed, shorter commutes are better for everybody. Would I live in downtown Houston,
or Dallas, or Atlanta? Not on a bet.

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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 20 Jun 2011, 13:58:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hughj', 'W')ould I live in downtown Houston, or Dallas, or Atlanta? Not on a bet.

So you are a 'burb kinda guy?
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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby Hughj » Mon 20 Jun 2011, 14:01:07

Like most "working" Americans.

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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 20 Jun 2011, 14:09:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hughj', 'L')ike most "working" Americans.

Yeah, lots of 'em aren't "working", but hey, makes gas cheaper for the rest of us huh?

Good old supply and demand.
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Re: How About Some Good News?

Unread postby rangerone314 » Sat 25 Jun 2011, 07:48:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SpockLives', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hughj', 'P')aul Ehrlich.....now there's a visionary. Wonder what he is doing now?

Hugh


Writing another book about the end of humanity...only this time, moving the predictions far enough into the future that people will get another good chuckle out of them only after he is dead?


I guess if Paul Ehrlich had lived in 392 ad, he would have been laughed at for predicting the fall of the Roman Empire.
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