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Why local self-sufficient communities will fail

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Unread postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Sat 21 May 2005, 17:45:59

If I were to use a movie to exemplify how I believe the future would in a total meltdown, it would be the communities in "the Postman with Kenvin Costner". (not the roving army part, although that is always a possibility)

I did not get the passivist/pacifist thing until you pointed it out. Having spent a decade in super maximum male jails I can tell you definitively that violence is never a good solution. I will never resort to it unless there is no other option. and having been a prison guard for many years I have luckily learned a lot of skills like negotiating.

However, there are a great many more people out there that are stuck in the madmax ideology who have little or no skills. and those are likely the ones you would have to deal with. (good thing you are leaving the US) because I see little else emerging from your cities. it will be the worst of dog eat dog.

If you haven't seen the postman I highly recommend it. while they get there by different means than we would the effects are similar, and its a good movie.
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Unread postby Bytesmiths » Sat 21 May 2005, 18:10:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', 'I')f I were to use a movie to exemplify how I believe the future would in a total meltdown, it would be the communities in "the Postman with Kenvin Costner".
I prefer the original book, by fellow Oregonian David Brin. In the book, there were no bullets left, and pacifist defense played a role. (But of course, Hollywood producers cannot make money on a movie without gunplay.)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', 'I') can tell you definitively that violence is never a good solution. I will never resort to it unless there is no other option.
From there to simply saying "I will never resort to it" is not as big a step as you might imagine!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', 'I') have luckily learned a lot of skills like negotiating.
Excellent point. Most people think you only negotiate over the distance that a bullet (or ICBM) can fly. Negotiation is going to be a valuable skill in the future! People are too used to trusting the negotiation to someone else, an "expert". Thus we hire lawyers, pay realtors, vote for representatives, etc. when we're going to have to be doing these things for ourselves soon.

I think the biggest problem for sustainable communities will be turning away the poor and starving, peaceably seeking hand-outs. It will behoove us to not flaunt our situation -- let the poor instead attack the gated communities, where there will still be rich folk. (Part of a pacifist defense strategy is to be a small target.)

There will always be "haves" and "have nots". In a "Mad Max" scenario, the gratuitous "haves" will be a much bigger target than the semi-invisible "just have enough" groups that will be truly sustainable.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', '.').. there are a great many more people out there that are stuck in the madmax ideology who have little or no skills. and those are likely the ones you would have to deal with.
Unfortunately for them, and fortunately for those of us who are actively working on sustainability plans, I think they'll be "boiled frogs" before they know it. Few will have the energy -- metaphorically or physical -- to go on "Mad Max" rampages.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', 'I')f you haven't seen the postman I highly recommend it.
If you haven't read the book, I highly recommend it! Get the book, then rent the movie, and pay particular attention to where they differ. David Brin's work was brilliant; Costner's film rendition cuts too many corners, and substitutes traditional Hollywood gunplay for lengthy dialog.
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Unread postby heyhoser » Sat 21 May 2005, 19:17:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bytesmiths', 'A') pacifist defense may be less effective in this situation than in the "slow meltdown", but I believe it is still more viable than sitting on an arms cache -- the well-armed person will be an inviting target in such a case!


So, let's say I'm a bad guy and I want to pillage a small community of about 50 people, get some food, 'stuff', and maybe do some raping on those yummy 13 year old blondes. And I've got two choices.
One is a community where some of the people carry a sidearm, or at least, there are some guys that keep a rifle on them while they work or move about. The other is a community that I can't see anyone carrying any kind of firearm or weapon. What? Are they going to hug me to death when my boys move in mowing down all the potential threats?
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Unread postby Bytesmiths » Sat 21 May 2005, 21:47:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heyhoser', 'S')o, let's say I'm a bad guy and I want to pillage a small community of about 50 people, get some food, 'stuff', and maybe do some raping on those yummy 13 year old blondes. And I've got two choices.
If all that is true, I'd say you're pretty stupid, and should be pretty easy to outwit! :-)

If your debate allows such a ridiculous assumption, I'm certain I can come up with a dozen that would go the other way. And all that any of that would prove is that we're both good at supporting our biases by coming up with scenarios THAT ARE NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN!

You see, my strategy is to never be one of those two choices. I think that's as valid a strategy as assuming you as bandito have only two choices, and I'm one of them.
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Unread postby jato » Sun 22 May 2005, 19:04:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't expect to change anyone's mind; you've seen too much TV for me to do that! The TV trains us for the world of violence that our "leaders" want us to believe is necessary. If you've swallowed that line, of course, you must have your guns.


Human violence was invented along with the television? I thought human history shows that violence is an integral part of our being.

In my experience most successful criminals choose their targets carefully. A rapist does not attack a woman who is well defended. Most criminals prey upon the weak and the defenseless.
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Unread postby Bytesmiths » Sun 22 May 2005, 19:16:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't expect to change anyone's mind; you've seen too much TV for me to do that! The TV trains us for the world of violence that our "leaders" want us to believe is necessary. If you've swallowed that line, of course, you must have your guns.
Human violence was invented along with the television?
Funny, I don't see that in what I wrote. I guess I don't read as creatively as you do.

If you're going to insist on reading things I never wrote, I have no arguments for you. You're "already listening," and are closed to what was <b>actually</b> written, preferring instead to answer things that you imagined were written.
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Unread postby heyhoser » Sun 22 May 2005, 19:57:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bytesmiths', 'I')f all that is true, I'd say you're pretty stupid, and should be pretty easy to outwit! :-)


:-D Okay. Maybe I'm not the brightest crayon in the coloring box but at least I'm offering discussions as opposed to making accusations or offering statements that I can't/won't back up! :shock:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f your debate allows such a ridiculous assumption, I'm certain I can come up with a dozen that would go the other way.


Cool. Do so. Let's play arm-chair general or D and D! Or, tell me why it's ridiculous and why my scenario (that is hopefully never going to happen) is, never going to happen.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd all that any of that would prove is that we're both good at supporting our biases by coming up with scenarios THAT ARE NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN!


I'm just saying that having a gun isn't going to make you a more desirous target than someone who doesn't have a gun.
Remember when you wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') pacifist defense may be less effective in this situation than in the "slow meltdown", but I believe it is still more viable than sitting on an arms cache -- the well-armed person will be an inviting target in such a case!


Maybe you can back up that claim a little bit, sir. Or is that the meanderings of a new-age karmic peace and love philosophy that says, "If you have a gun, you will be shot. If you don't have a gun, no harm will ever come to you." Whoa. That was spooky. :)


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou see, my strategy is to never be one of those two choices.

Okay, awesome! You are so close to explaining yourself and showing me how idiotic I truly am. Continue! Seriously, back yourself up, discuss it, don't just say, 'I'm right, you're wrong.'

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think that's as valid a strategy as assuming you as bandito have only two choices, and I'm one of them

I almost get what you're talking about, but I'm a little slow. :cry:

So, what would you do, then? I take it you'd never live in a community, since that's a part of the 'two choices' thing. What scenario do you envision?

Oi vey. :lol:
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Unread postby Bytesmiths » Sun 22 May 2005, 20:16:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heyhoser', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bytesmiths', 'I')f all that is true, I'd say you're pretty stupid, and should be pretty easy to outwit! :-)
Okay. Maybe I'm not the brightest crayon in the coloring box...
But we were speaking of a hypothetical case, <b>not</b> about you in particular! I meant no offense.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heyhoser', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f your debate allows such a ridiculous assumption, I'm certain I can come up with a dozen that would go the other way.
Cool. Do so.
Aw man... this is so tedious. The next thing you'll say is that I'm refusing to play the game I laid down the rules for. Let's just say I'm refusing to play the game and leave it at that, okay?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heyhoser', 'I')'m just saying that having a gun isn't going to make you a more desirous target than someone who doesn't have a gun. Remember when you wrote:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') pacifist defense may be less effective in this situation than in the "slow meltdown", but I believe it is still more viable than sitting on an arms cache -- the well-armed person will be an inviting target in such a case! Maybe you can back up that claim a little bit, sir.No, it's primarily a gut feeling. I prefer to be a small target. Those who like guns will be drawn by guns -- is that so difficult to understand?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heyhoser', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou see, my strategy is to never be one of those two choices.Okay, awesome!Glad you like my strategy!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heyhoser', 'd')on't just say, 'I'm right, you're wrong.'I don't believe I ever said that. What I said was that your limited hypothetical did not include my reality as one of its choices.

"So, have you stopped beating your wife yet?" asks the prosecutor.

"But, I never..." stammers the defandant.

"Please answer the question, yes or no!" demands the prosecutor.

I'm not going to play your game.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heyhoser', 'I') take it you'd never live in a community...Again, I don't believe I ever wrote that. You must be reading something else on the side... that's okay, it's good to multi-task, except when you mix the two up!

I'm nearly at my PeakOil.com quota for this month, so I might not be back here for a while. Got real stuff to do, like planning, getting land, shifting assets, buying a tractor, etc. I do like to drop in now and then to see how all the "mouse potatoes" are dealing with things, though. I suggest you spend all your money on weapons, so you don't drive up the market on good farmland too much. Might give new meaning to the phrase "eat lead." :-)
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Unread postby heyhoser » Sun 22 May 2005, 20:24:57

:-D Cool, cool. Have a good week, then. :roll:
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Unread postby Chocky » Mon 23 May 2005, 07:07:06

Thanks for the expanding on your thoughts on pacificism Bytesmiths, I found them very interesting. I think your ideas on community and isolation are great, but I can't help thinking there is no 'backup plan'. Guns don't have to be brandished or carried openly- there's no need for anyone to know that you have them. In the absolute worst-case scenario, being armed can only be to your advantage.

One thing, don't plan on the assumption that there will be a lack of ammunition in the future. Ammunition has a shelf life of 50-100 years, and is extremely cheap and widely available in the US. Have no doubt that ammunition will be relatively plentiful for decades after the last round has been manufactured. I have also read the postman, and recall that there were a lot of bullets around- the postman may have had three shells for his revolver, but the 'damnsurvivalists' seemed to have an unlimited supply. I haven't read it for a while, but as I remember the ordinary people were completely at the mercy of the survivalists, who raided and pillaged as they liked.
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Unread postby Bytesmiths » Mon 23 May 2005, 13:00:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chocky', 'I') think your ideas on community and isolation are great, but I can't help thinking there is no 'backup plan'.
You mean I forgot to mention the dilithium-crystal-powered, stasis-generator perimeter force field? :-)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chocky', 'G')uns don't have to be brandished or carried openly- there's no need for anyone to know that you have them. In the absolute worst-case scenario, being armed can only be to your advantage.
I don't see it that way. I don't expect to change anyone's mind, but I question the "only be to your advantage" part. To my way of thinking, they are a dangerous diversion of resource. They need to be cleaned, maintained, tested, <i>used</i>. Where guns exist (particularly hand guns), people tend to use them on each other. You see it on the news all the time -- an eight-year-old kills his six-year-old brother, playing with a gun.

Now I can hear all of you gun lovers saying, "Well, THAT doesn't apply to ME! I'm CAREFUL!" Touche. Grant me the same consideration about not using them. Like I said, I don't plan to be one of heyhoser's two alternatives, just as I'm sure he doesn't plan to be among the overwhelming statistics that show that people with hand guns tend to use them on each other more often than for defense.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chocky', 'O')ne thing, don't plan on the assumption that there will be a lack of ammunition in the future.
I'm not planning on that, but I am planning on there being a lack of it among the irresponsible, and that those who love guns will spend a significant amount of their time and energy pursuing them. If you're running out of ammo to rape and pillage, are you going to attack the sleepy, peaceful ecovillage that "only" feeds itself, or are you going to go after the weakest group that you know has an ammo stash? Violence attracts violence, guns attract guns.

Well, this is #400 for me. That's my self-imposed limit for now. The rain has stopped, the sun is shining, and there is a lot to do. I'm removing temptation by canceling all my notifications and ripping PeakOil.com out of my RSS reader. I'll keep notifications for private messages, and you can always use the email link on my website to get in touch.

Remember: if you think there's only one way to solve a problem -- be it security, energy, food, whatever -- you probably haven't thought hard enough!
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Unread postby heyhoser » Mon 23 May 2005, 13:13:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bytesmiths', ' ')Like I said, I don't plan to be one of heyhoser's two alternatives, just as I'm sure he doesn't plan to be among the overwhelming statistics that show that people with hand guns tend to use them on each other more often than for defense.


People don't kill people. Guns kill people. Err, or, hmmmmm...Nice statistics. Have fun with the free love thing.
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Unread postby Chocky » Tue 24 May 2005, 00:22:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')o my way of thinking, they are a dangerous diversion of resource. They need to be cleaned, maintained, tested, used.


Or greased and stored for the next 50 years. You'll be appalled to learn that stored properly, guns last pretty much for ever with no maintenance at all. Whatever you do, try and find out a little bit more about guns, how they work, how many people have them, how long they last, etc.
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Unread postby heyhoser » Tue 24 May 2005, 08:58:07

Great point, Chocky.
Anyway, firearms would probably be a good idea for any small community. If the infastructure breaks down, calling 911 when someone breaks into your house simply isn't going to work. (Jane picks up the phone, listens, dials number repeatedly, hangs up in despair in realization that the electricity had been turned off four months before)

Even in the worst doomer scenario, there won't be a massive die-off immediately. It could take years for the system to dissolve, and at any moment, someone desperate enough could decide that he/they deserve to live more than you do. If the cities crumble into disuse, there will be a massive immigration into the country-side as desperate people realize that there is too little food. Of course, this is only a "scenario" continuing the "possibility" of trying to live in a "self-sufficient" community in a "doomer-obsessed" world post PO.

I'd like to see what a cop thinks about the idea of having firearms to protect you and yours in a potentially violent situation. I'm of the opinion that most of the people here who don't think we should have firearms post PO are probably people who've never used one, relying on mace, evasion, and the police. Probably think that if 'guns' were outlawed, there'd be no more guns in the world. :roll:

There's some good discussion here, and if anyone could tell me how they plan to protect themselves and theirs through pacifism, I'd love to hear it. The image of the protestor standing in front of the tank in China keeps coming to mind, right before they ran him over. :wink:
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Unread postby Doly » Tue 24 May 2005, 11:21:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heyhoser', '
')There's some good discussion here, and if anyone could tell me how they plan to protect themselves and theirs through pacifism, I'd love to hear it. The image of the protestor standing in front of the tank in China keeps coming to mind, right before they ran him over. :wink:


I believe that passive defences (locks, alarms, etc) work well. Actually, I believe they often work better than guns. Also, looking like you aren't worth attacking helps.

I also believe that if you get assaulted by somebody who has a gun, the fact that you also have a gun won't protect you from *their* bullets. I don't think my reflexes are good enough to feel certain I can always shoot first (many posters here apparently do, or they think they are going to be the only guys around with guns).

If I were in a place where guns were rampant, I'll go to a safer place. It's that simple. I don't think guns help you survive, rather the opposite. If you are talking about a place with knifes and the like, you can defend yourself. Some lessons on martial arts can help you. But if you are talking guns, I don't think that another gun is going to save your ass. Eventually, you will take a bullet yourself.
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Unread postby heyhoser » Tue 24 May 2005, 13:10:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heyhoser', '
')There's some good discussion here, and if anyone could tell me how they plan to protect themselves and theirs through pacifism, I'd love to hear it. The image of the protestor standing in front of the tank in China keeps coming to mind, right before they ran him over. :wink:


I believe that passive defences (locks, alarms, etc) work well. Actually, I believe they often work better than guns. Also, looking like you aren't worth attacking helps.


Excellent points on both. Locks can make it more difficult for an agressor to get into your space, just as, say, a barbed wire fence. Plus, the noise from that or from an alarm could alert you to the danger, giving you a chance to evade or advert the danger.
And I absolutely agree about making yourself not looking like a target. I do this everytime I travel abroad. But sometimes, just being noticed at all will be enough.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')I also believe that if you get assaulted by somebody who has a gun, the fact that you also have a gun won't protect you from *their* bullets. I don't think my reflexes are good enough to feel certain I can always shoot first (many posters here apparently do, or they think they are going to be the only guys around with guns).


Very true, whoever gets in the first accurate shot will be the winner. But, if you have no bullets of your own, you will always be

"borrowing"

them from your aggressor. Just like learning martial arts takes time and dedication, learning how to operate a firearm will take patience and work.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')If I were in a place where guns were rampant, I'll go to a safer place. It's that simple. I don't think guns help you survive, rather the opposite. If you are talking about a place with knifes and the like, you can defend yourself. Some lessons on martial arts can help you. But if you are talking guns, I don't think that another gun is going to save your ass. Eventually, you will take a bullet yourself.


If you know a place in the world where there are no firearms, I'd be very surprised. Then, I'd be even more surprised if they weren't there soon. How is it that someone thinks they have a better chance in a knife fight or a wrestling match (95% of all hand-to-hand combat situations are concluded on the ground-according to US Army field guide) than knowing how to operate a firearm? Say that your aggressor doesn't even have a weapon, just two gigantic fists that ripped open your door. Without a firearm, how would you stop him?

One more question. If firearms don't save your ass, then why do soldiers carry them? Or cops? Especially cops since their role is to serve and protect as opposed to 'take out a target'?

I like what you said about looking like you're not worth attacking the best. I think this goes along with some of what Bytesmiths was saying about camoflauge (I think it was him). So, maybe we can relate this to first of all saying that 'communities' would need to be as out of the way as possible. Maybe off all paved roads or just so far away from population centers that no one would think about exploring. My idea, at least...not sure what you guys had in mind.

I highly recommend that anyone who is preparing for a serious meltdown in our society invest in a rifle and take the time to learn how to use it properly.
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Unread postby Chocky » Wed 25 May 2005, 05:06:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') also believe that if you get assaulted by somebody who has a gun, the fact that you also have a gun won't protect you from *their* bullets.


That's right. For that you need something like one of these. What's your alternative anyway? If you're being attacked by someone with a gun, what's your advice?

Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')But if you are talking guns, I don't think that another gun is going to save your ass. Eventually, you will take a bullet yourself.


Probably, but it's all about the best POSSIBLE alternative. Ideally you'd never be attacked. If you were to be attacked, a gun would be your best chance of survival. It's entirely possible that depending on your skill, luck, and your attacker that you willl be killed despite the gun.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f I were in a place where guns were rampant, I'll go to a safer place. It's that simple. I don't think guns help you survive, rather the opposite. If you are talking about a place with knifes and the like, you can defend yourself. Some lessons on martial arts can help you.


I'm guessing you live in Britain, and you think it's gun free because that's what you've been lead to believe. Unfortunately or fortunately depending on your point of view there are actually a great many guns in Britain, most of which aren't going to go anywhere soon.
Let's look at the types of guns in Britain:

-legal guns, held by civilians (hunters, target shooters and farmers)
-legal guns, held by the police and military
-illegal guns that were once legal but have been kept by their owners
-illegal guns that were brought back from wars as souveneirs
-illegal guns that were imported from eastern europe
-illegal guns that were converted from deactivated guns
-illegal guns that were manufactured illegally
-illegal guns that were imported in seperate components then assembled.

You can see that even in Britain there are a huge number of guns, from different sources and held by different types of people- law abiding people, the military, the police, criminals, and people who obey most laws but keep illegal guns anyway.
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