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So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Lore » Thu 12 May 2011, 09:13:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'I')So no go for me. I mean jesus, people with PHDs applying for a $60K job??? WTF??? How am I supposed to climb the corporate ladder while racing with all these unemployed PHDs? Thank god, our company stopped sponsoring H1Bs3 years ago, otherwise I had to compete with 1BN Indian engineers as well.


Don't feel too bad, at least you have a job. You've got people with PHDs applying for some of those 60K part time jobs at McDonalds.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 19 May 2011, 09:23:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'S')hould be back under 400K within a few weeks, maybe earlier.

Almost there!

>>> Initial jobless claims drop 29K to 409K <<<
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 19 May 2011, 09:38:04

Almost where?
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Cog » Thu 19 May 2011, 18:58:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'S')hould be back under 400K within a few weeks, maybe earlier.

Almost there!

>>> Initial jobless claims drop 29K to 409K <<<


Doesn't exactly coodincide with strong job growth does it?
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Sixstrings » Thu 19 May 2011, 19:27:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'S')hould be back under 400K within a few weeks, maybe earlier.

Almost there!

>>> Initial jobless claims drop 29K to 409K <<<


Oilfinder.. there comes a point where one crosses the line from independent thinking to delusion.

No rational person thinks the unemployment situation in the US is improving. New claims down 29k to 409k, well what does that even mean? Millions are still out of work with no hope of real full time employment -- all the new jobs created have been 18 hour per week part time stuff.

And Oil you're not accounting for the fact that people are falling off the unemployment comp rolls.. the new claims will eventually go down precisely because there is a *time limit* to how long people can get those benefits. Just because the 99'ers fall of the rolls and can't claim again doesn't mean they found jobs -- ergo falling comp claims is not an indication of more employment.

Bottom line.. real unemployment is like 23%.. look at the blue line -- if this were a Dow Jones graph you'd call this a bull market, cleary trending up:

Image
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

What you see there between '09 and now is the BEST that all the quantitative easing and extraordinary measures could accomplish.. QE can't continue forever or eventually those policies themselves will *accelerate* job loss. So I just don't see what you keep crowing about OIl. :?:
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 19 May 2011, 21:19:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'S')hould be back under 400K within a few weeks, maybe earlier.

Almost there!

>>> Initial jobless claims drop 29K to 409K <<<


Doesn't exactly coodincide with strong job growth does it?

Back in April-July 1983, initial unemployment claims were bouncing around the 400K's and we still got monthly job growth readings of 363K, 308K, 379K and 312K respectively. So the answer to your question is, it can.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 19 May 2011, 21:26:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'O')ilfinder.. there comes a point where one crosses the line from independent thinking to delusion.

I completely agree. The economy is clearly getting better, and has been for almost two years now, and the doomers on this site continue to delude themselves into thinking it isn't.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'N')o rational person thinks the unemployment situation in the US is improving ...

Two of the three measures on your own chart show improvement. Any rational person would look at that chart and, seeing that two of three alternative measures of unemployment were down from their peak, would thereby conclude that the unemployment situtation was likely getting better.

But this thread isn't even about the unemployment rate - in other words, you've got to change the topic to make a doomish case.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'A')nd Oil you're not accounting for the fact that people are falling off the unemployment comp rolls.. the new claims will eventually go down precisely because there is a *time limit* to how long people can get those benefits. Just because the 99'ers fall of the rolls and can't claim again doesn't mean they found jobs -- ergo falling comp claims is not an indication of more employment.

You have no clue what you're talking about. Maybe if I say it a zillion more times it'll sink in (though I doubt it): 99ers falling off the rolls have nothing to do with initial claims.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 19 May 2011, 21:26:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'y')ou again oily. You're the laughing stock of this site.

This statement contained no substance. 100% hot air.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby cipi604 » Thu 19 May 2011, 21:39:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'y')ou again oily. You're the laughing stock of this site.

This statement contained no substance. 100% hot air.

You really are dude. Your logic is inexistent. You are the site buffoon , the daily laugh, everybody here knows you as "that guy, don't bother too much, he's kinda' retard."

Get a life.
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 19 May 2011, 21:46:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'N')ow that it is apparent that peak has come and gone (IEA)

LOL!!!

Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby cipi604 » Thu 19 May 2011, 21:50:08

That is not crude oil you retard. It's all liquids. I quit reading or answering you.
Grow a brain!
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 19 May 2011, 21:52:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cipi604', 'T')hat is not crude oil you retard. It's all liquids. I quit reading or answering you.
Grow a brain!

pstarr said IEA, so I gave him IEA figures. Deal with it.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby peripato » Thu 19 May 2011, 22:54:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cipi604', 'T')hat is not crude oil you retard. It's all liquids. I quit reading or answering you.
Grow a brain!

pstarr said IEA, so I gave him IEA figures. Deal with it.

Fatih Birol, IEA head, stated recently in this interview broadcast on Australia's ABC program - Catalyst, that the peak for crude + condensates was in 2006. And here is the graph to back him up...
Image

Graph derived from the JODI database, courtesy of Darwinian of TOD, who has done some great work in putting together this information.

So, deal with that...
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 19 May 2011, 23:14:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cipi604', 'T')hat is not crude oil you retard. It's all liquids. I quit reading or answering you.
Grow a brain!

pstarr said IEA, so I gave him IEA figures. Deal with it.

Fatih Birol, IEA head, stated recently in this interview broadcast on Australia's ABC program - Catalyst, that the peak for crude + condensates was in 2006. And here is the graph to back him up...
Image

Graph derived from the JODI database, courtesy of Darwinian of TOD, who has done some great work in putting together this information.

So, deal with that...

And, as discussed elsewhere on this forum, his own numbers don't back him up:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'F')atih Birol "We think that the crude oil production has already peaked in 2006 "

The IEA figures obscure world crude production in their figures. The best that can be done is get world crude and none-opec NGLs combined which is a good proxy to crude.

I notice you didn't include Fatih's figures in your post farq3. I wonder why?

from http://omrpublic.iea.org/archiveresults ... full+issue
Fatih Birol's figures for oil supply 2006 and 2010
by year
2006 - 85.19Mbpd
2010 - 87.30Mbpd
More than 2Mbpd increase

by highest quarter
2006 (3rd ) - 85.52Mbpd
2010 ( 4th ) - 88.3Mbpd
More than 2.7Mbpd increase

Don't bother coming running up to me whining that it's not exclusively crude, phone Fatih Birol, it's his crazy idea not to explict crude.

Fatih Birol's words don't match his agencys figures.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby peripato » Thu 19 May 2011, 23:49:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'A')nd, as discussed elsewhere on this forum, his own numbers don't back him up...

Not talking about All Liquids mate, but Crude - Black Gold, Texas Tea...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')EA World Energy Outlook 2010

Global oil production reaches 96 mb/d in the New Policies Scenario, the balance of 3 mb/d coming from processing gains. Crude oil output reaches a plateau of around 68-69 mb/d by 2020 — marginally below the all-time peak of about 70 mb/d reached in 2006, while production of natural gas liquids and unconventional oil grows strongly.

Backed up by their own graph...
Image

Check out the depth of the disconnect at the Agency in the yawning gap between declining Crude production and the IEA's subsequent production forecasts, which every year are revised down.
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 26 May 2011, 09:24:38

Jobless Claims Rise to 424K -- 20K above 404K Forecast -- While 2011 GDP Growth Plunged 50% from 2010 to 1.8%

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ore Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the labor market is struggling to gain momentum. Jobless claims increased by 10,000 to 424,000 in the week ended May 21, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a drop to 404,000. The economy grew less than forecast in the first quarter, a separate report showed. ... The Labor Department revised the prior week’s figure up to 414,000 from the 409,000 initially reported.

bloomberg
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Re: So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 23 Jun 2011, 10:02:19

Denninger: Jobless Claims Numbers Sucked - Again

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')obless claims numbers sucked - again:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the week ending June 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 429,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 420,000. The 4-week moving average was 426,250, unchanged from the previous week's revised average of 426,250.


We still have that "4" handle and it's NOT going away.

There's no "positive spin" you can put on this; the facts are what they are, and they suck.

Here's the unfortunate reality: The policies pursued since the 2007 market dislocation have not worked. They have not worked because they mathematically cannot work, not because we "didn't do enough" or "didn't do it right" in some nuanced fashion.

Neither "more tax cuts" or "more public spending" can fix the problem with employment and the economy in general. Neither can work because taking more debt is not (and does not, historically) generate more GDP (output) than the debt itself provides. Low interest rates encourage the taking on of debt to consume (instead of building things like factories and such) which in turn promotes the exact ponzi scheme our economy has attempted to operate on since 1980.

It didn't "work" then in any true sense and it won't now. We've hit the limit on pulling forward demand and these tonics do nothing positive for the economic climate. Pretending that the ponzi can be restarted has been a very nice illusion for the last two years and prodded people into speculation in the stock and commodity prices but the realization that this was a sham and a fraud is slowly seeping into the consciousness of both the markets and the people generally.

Our nation's government made a terrible mistake in 2007. I wrote about it at the time and have been doing so since. We have compounded more than four and a half trillion dollars of error onto the mess that we previously had, and received nothing of value for it.

Be prepared folks; the "bag of tricks" is running empty in Washington DC and, especially, at The Fed.


The Ponzi-economy paradigm is a failure, and must be abandoned.
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