[OilsNotWell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') wonder if the use of the word "dead" to describe the chicken was meant to indicate the men ate chickens that had died in some way (disease) rather than chickens that were slaughtered

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilsNotWell', 'A')ctually I feel quite badly for the millions of Vietnamese subsistence farmers who have suffered mightily with these bird culls, and the enforced movement towards larger, highly regulated poultry operations....an important food source is increasingly off-limits...

[OilsNotWell]

That's funny. But you won't laugh at this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ird flu threat

AN IN-DEPTH study by the World Health Organisation has warned that the Asian bird flu virus could have altered to become much more transmissible between humans than previously believed, posing the increased threat of a pandemic.

WHO Says

[OilsNotWell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ird flu 'may pass to humans'

Published: 17 May 2005
By: Julian Rush

Scientists are warning that the virus which causes bird flu could soon be able to pass between humans.

New evidence seen by Channel 4 News points to an increased risk of a global flu outbreak because of the way the virus has started to mutate.

Scientists at the World Health Organisation monitoring avian flu in South East Asia say they are seeing what they call a "worrisome development".
H5N1 is proving to be a virus full of surprises. The original jump from wild ducks - where it doesn't cause illness - to domestic chickens where it kills - was a genetic leap akin to a jump from a cat to a horse. The leap from chickens to humans was even bigger.

The nastiest surprise would be what's called reassortment - if a completely new virus emerged after H5N1 got into someone already infected with conventional human flu.

One final surprise too. One recent sample from Vietnam proved to be, in part, resistant to the drug mainly used to treat victims of H5N1.

Chances are it's a one-off - the patient was being treated with the drug - but the WHO scientists warn that if further samples are found, it would have serious implications indeed.

Bird Flu Pass to Humans

[OilsNotWell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')andemic Unpreparedness - No 2005 H5N1 GenBank Sequences

Recombinomics Commentary
May 17, 2005

>> Many influenza experts have issued grave warnings of an imminent pandemic. The hope inherent in all planning for a pandemic is that if we are able to detect a pandemic early in its course, we may be able to undertake necessary preparations in both prevention and medical care. This will not be possible without comprehensive and reliable surveillance. <<
The recent Nature report on lack of H5N1 sharing pointed out the fact that the number of 2005 H5N1sequences at WHO is remarkably low. Although WHO attributed this to a poor yield in isolating virus, that explanation is just the tip of the scandalously poor surveillance by WHO and affected countries.

2005 H5N1 infections in Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Indonesia have all been acknowledged.WHO still believes the evolving H5N1 genetic changes are from random mutations instead of elegant evolution via recombination

If sharing isn't a problem, then why no sequences at GenBank?

Pandemic unpreparedness is becoming increasingly obvious.

Recombinomics

[OilsNotWell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Threat of Bird Flu Pandemic Dominates World Health Assembly

GENEVA, Switzerland, May 17, 2005 (ENS) - Avian influenza is the most serious known health threat the world is facing, World Health Organization Director-General Lee Jong-wook told opening of the 58th World Health Assembly on Monday. Comparing the possibility to the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918, which killed between 20 and 50 million people, Lee said, "The timing cannot be predicted, but rapid international spread is certain once the pandemic virus appears. This is a grave danger for all people in all countries."

"By good fortune we have had time - and still have time - to prepare for the next global pandemic, because the conditions for it have appeared before the outbreak itself," said Lee. We must do everything in our power to maximize that preparedness. When this event occurs, our response has got to be immediate, comprehensive and effective."

World Health Assembly

[gg3]

Thanks for posting this; and the occasional bit of humor also helps deal with the grimness.

As I said earlier, if it starts spreading among humans, avoid crowds entirely, and don't go out without your disposable face mask on (hmm, good idea to buy a couple boxes of those right now), and wash your hands frequently, etc. etc.

The item about dog flu is interesting. Not to sound conspiratorial or anything, but a slate-wiper for dogs would be demoralizing as hell in the US and Western world, and would be just the thing for Al Qaeda to try (they believe dogs are "unclean," but they know that in the West, dogs are family members) before they unleash something aimed at humans.

But in any case, the vector once again is *frivolous transportation,* in this case the shipping of racing-grayhounds all over the place.

I suppose we could say that one of the benefits of peak oil will be that frivolous transportation such as shipping racing-dogs for entertainment, and shipping foodstuffs all over the world for luxury, will be reduced.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '
')
NBC will show footage of chickens with long beards and turbans speaking angrily in Arabic.

[OilsNotWell]

Every news release is a step closer to the pandemic it seems...Jiminy Cricket!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')HO to warn on changing avian flu
By Pallab Ghosh
BBC News science correspondent

A new virus could spread quickly

The WHO is to announce new research showing that the pattern of avian flu in northern Vietnam is consistent with human-to-human infection. [Poster's Note: If you haven'been following closely this was the last great step before pandemic...Once this happens, the gloves are off!

BBC News has obtained an advance copy of the study, which urges governments to bolster public health measures.

The new methods will be needed to protect against a new influenza pandemic, the WHO paper says.

It is thought that at least 92 people have caught the avian influenza virus from handling poultry since late 2003.

But in a handful of cases, there is the suspicion that the virus has mutated and spread from person to person.

Infection clusters

Scientists fear this new infection could form the basis of a new world-wide flu pandemic.

In the first detailed assessment of this possibility, a WHO team says that the infection pattern in northern Vietnam may indicate that the infection is passing from one person to another.

Killer viruses
1918 Spanish flu killed 50m
1957 Asian flu killed about 1m
1968 Hong Kong flu killed 1m
2003 Sars killed 774
2004-5 Avian flu (H5N1) has killed 50 to date

When the infection spreads from poultry, it usually infects a small number of shoppers or meat handlers and is quickly eradicated.

Instead, in northern Vietnam, researchers say they have discovered a higher number of infection clusters, the period of infection is longer and the age range of those infected is much wider.

The scientists have also found that the virus in northern Vietnam is genetically more different to a bird virus than other strains.

However, the WHO stresses that the pattern of infection could also be explained by a more infectious form of bird to human infection.


BBC - W.H.O. Bird Flu Alert to World Governments

[OilsNotWell]

More MSM news...


Bloomberg

And some of the latest from Dr. Niman:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')5N1 Destroys Basic Tenents of Influenza Genetics

Recombinomics Commentary
May 18, 2005

Recombinomics

[OilsNotWell]

I'll post this in its entirety...one should read

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]WHO: flu pandemic threat may be growing

May 18, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – The H5N1 avian influenza virus is evolving and poses "a continuing and potentially growing pandemic threat," say experts who were convened recently by the World Health Organization (WHO) to study the pathogen.

Changing patterns of cases, particularly in northern Vietnam, may indicate the virus is becoming more infectious for humans, the WHO said in a report on an international meeting of experts held May 6 and 7 in Manila. In addition, genetic analysis indicates that H5N1 viruses are becoming more antigenically diverse.

The report cites several differences between epidemiologic features of human cases this year in northern Vietnam and those in southern Vietnam this year and overall last year:

Northern Vietnam has had eight case clusters this year, versus only two in the south.
Case clusters in northern Vietnam this year have lasted longer than did clusters last year.
The average age of infected people in northern Vietnam rose from 17 to about 31 years between 2004 and 2005, but it stayed about the same in southern Vietnam (15 to 18 years).
The case-fatality rate has dropped to 34% this year in the north but is 83% in the south.
In addition, the report says the recent discovery of three asymptomatic cases in Vietnam suggests that milder infections are occurring.[poster's note: Clearly the virus changed as others, particularly Dr. Niman, have been saying. Asymptomatic means they weren't sick, althought they had the virus!] A few asymptomatic cases also were found in Japan and Thailand in the past year, and others were discovered in Hong Kong after the H5N1 outbreak in 1997.

The report says the longer duration of recent clusters may signal a growing number of ways in which people contract the virus, including exposure to sick birds, environmental infection, lengthy exposure to asymptomatic birds that are shedding virus, and person-to-person transmission.

The avian virus had already vaulted to the top of the pandemic threat list because it had developed the ability to sicken and kill humans. The virus's inability to cause efficient, ongoing human-to-human transmission is the last barrier to a pandemic. Now experts appear worried that the barrier is crumbling.

"Investigators were not able to prove that human-to-human transmission had occurred. However, they expressed concerns, which were shared by local clinicians, that the pattern of disease appeared to have changed in a manner consistent with this possibility," the assessment states.

At the same time, it says that in places where the disease in poultry has been controlled or eliminated, human cases have stopped. And thus far, the first case in most of the human clusters in Vietnam followed the person's exposure to infected poultry.

For now, "Prevention of H5N1 avian influenza in humans is best achieved by controlling infection in poultry [except the virus is now endmic to the entire SE asia region, China, Korea, China, Indonesia..in other animals...!]," the document states. "As already recommended by FAO and OIE [the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Organization for Animal Health], control strategies for this disease should consider vaccination of poultry, which has been used successfully before."

A team of WHO expert consultants studied Vietnam's outbreak at that country's request from Apr 15 through 25, the report says. That study showed H5N1 could be changing more in the northern region, which prompted a second expert consultation.

This second meeting was held May 6 and 7 at the WHO regional office in Manila. Representatives from Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand presented details about the epidemiologic, clinical, and virologic findings regarding H5N1 in people and poultry. Other data were included from the WHO Global Influenza Network and other countries.

The experts make a number of recommendations, including increasing efforts to improve risk assessment, to boost the ability of affected countries to address outbreaks, and to speed the pace of pandemic planning.

The 14 recommendations include the following:

WHO should convene its Pandemic Task Force to meet regularly, assess the data, and determine the risk for pandemic flu.
All nations should move as quickly as possible to complete "practical operational pandemic preparedness plans." WHO should explore "all possible mechanisms" to make H5N1 vaccine available to the Asian countries affected before a pandemic. It should bring together technical experts, countries, manufacturers and possible donors to find ways to boost global H5N1 vaccine production.
Coordination of animal and human surveillance and viral information must be improved from the ground level to the national and international level, and data must be exchanged quickly.
The WHO should complete a handbook on how to investigate possible H5N1 clusters.
The WHO should explore building a stockpile of antiviral drugs that could be used to respond to early signs of a potential pandemic.
Countries needing funding and agencies that may provide funding must coordinate their efforts to avoid redundancy and eliminate gaps
As the experts call for greater international effort to address the escalating threat, they also acknowledge the difficulties of preparing for a possible pandemic:

"Evolution of a pandemic strain of virus may be preceded by numerous small steps, none of which is sufficient to signal clearly that a pandemic is about to start. This poses a difficult public health dilemma. If public health authorities move too soon, then unnecessary and costly actions may be taken. However, if action is delayed until there is unmistakable evidence that the virus has become sufficiently transmissible among people to allow a pandemic to develop, then it most likely will be too late to implement effective . . . responses."

See also:

"WHO Inter-country Consultation: Influenza A/H5N1 in Humans in Asia, Manila, May 6th-7th, 2005"
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_in ... 0final.pdf

CIDRAP

[OilsNotWell]

It was practically impossible to miss all the news today from that WHO report.....I won't re-post all that info....I'll try to post what may be most useful...

By now, those reading this have had some bit of a headstart in the what is coming...

The first step in any preparation is psychological....once you get your head wrapped around a possibility, you are much better able to react to something when it comes...

And it will happen they say, just a matter of when...I've clipped the following from various reports (USA Today, Reuters, etc)...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Klaus Stohr, WHO's global influenza program coordinator, told a news briefing in Geneva: "We don't know whether the pandemic will occur next week or next year...We should continue very intensively with pandemic preparations."

"We believe a pandemic will happen but we don't know when," said Guenael Rodier, head of communicable diseases surveillance and response at WHO.

Experts fear that if the virus mutates to allow easy transmission among humans, it could create a global pandemic, killing millions of people.

The latest studies show it would take three months for a possible pandemic to spread around the world, said Dr. Klaus Stohr, WHO's influenza chief.

[OilsNotWell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')8 May 2005 10:34 GMT Indonesia Probes A Possible H5N1 Avian Flu Human Case:WHO
Copyright © 2005, Dow Jones Newswires

JAKARTA (Dow Jones Newswires)--Indonesia's Ministry of Health has uncovered what may be the country's first human case of H5N1 avian influenza and is seeking to confirm the possible infection through additional blood tests at the University of Hong Kong, a Jakarta-based World Health Organization official said Wednesday.

The suspected case emerged from a series of blood samples linked to routine human medical surveillance during an avian flu outbreak in South Sulawesi province several weeks ago, Steven Bjorge, the WHO's technical officer for emerging diseases, told Dow Jones Newswires.

Health officials have apparently lost track of the person, Umar Fahmi Ahmadi, director-general of the ministry's Communicable Disease Control and Environmental Health Department, told reporters Wednesday. The officials are now trying to find the person. [Poster's Comment: That means he or she may be spreading it and be totally unaware]

Dow Jones Newswire

[OilsNotWell]

[OilsNotWell]

Vietnam reports another bird flu death, raising regional death toll to 53

Actually, that headline, and some of the information, is misleading...particularly the part thats that suggest there is no evidence of human to human transmission. As the above posts have clearly shown, and WHO now nearly admits is not the real story...

I am also reading disturbing reports (in the journal Nature, for one) of the UN's agricultural arm that handles bird flu samples has not cooperated with WHO's infectious disease team on getting them current samples for the last eight months... Thus, the one agency that was set up to warn of just this type of disaster (was formed after the 1918 flu pandemic by the way) has had one of its eyes poked out, so to speak...scandalous indeed.

An interesting graph that unfortunately may have to be updated...based on published WHO data for the latest wave of infections...

http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread. ... ae&t=15312

And here's some other data on the waves of bird flu (by the way, the bird flu waves extend even earlier than this, so it's been some time in coming)..

Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Reported to WHO
---------------------------------------------------
Date of Onset: 26-DEC-2003 to 10-MAR-2004

Country / Cases / Deaths
Viet Nam / 23 / 16
Thailand / 12 / 8
Cambodia / 0 / 0
Total / 35 / 24

Date of Onset: 19-JUL-2004 to 08-OCT-2004

Country / Cases / Deaths
Viet Nam / 4 / 4
Thailand / 5 / 4
Cambodia / 0 / 0
Total / 9 / 8

Date of Onset: 16-DEC-2004 to 13-MAY-2005

Viet Nam / 49 / 17
Thailand / 0 / 0
Cambodia / 4 / 4
Total / 53 / 21

Date of Onset: 26-DEC-2003 to 13-MAY-2005

Viet Nam / 76 / 37
Thailand / 17 / 12
Cambodia / 4 / 4
Total / 97 / 53

(The total number of cases includes deaths. WHO reports only
laboratory-confirmed cases

ProMEDMail

[OilsNotWell]

Here's a quote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')If somebody should need warnings that another pandemic is coming, we've had enough and we should continue very intensively with preparations for pandemic preparedness," the World Health Organisation's top influenza expert, Klaus Stohr.

Nations on Guard

[RIPSmithianEconomics]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Egon_1', 'H')mmm...

Asia is the fastest growing user of oil.
Asia is seeing new outbreaks of potentially nasty bugs.
Some of those bugs appear to be genetically engineered.

What would the U.S. do to protect it's national interests?

If I were a conspiracy theory fan, I would probably be going ape-shit about now...

[PhilBiker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's all a scheme by the Freemasons, in cahoots with the Jews, in cahoots with the Liberals, in cahoots with the Communists, in cahoots with the UN, in cahoots with the aliens, in cahoots with the EU.

[gg3]

About Cahoots: is that in Arizona or New Mexico? Or is it some kind of warm fuzzy blanket...?:-)


Seriously, consider this:

Here we have the Senate locked up by Frist and his band of fanatics, while a huge public health emergency is about to descend on the world. Are they nuts?!

This is another example of the kinds of urgent priorities that are not getting dealt with because Senator Dr. Frist wants to add President to his list of titles in a couple of years.

I'm already bloody pissed that Bush's energy policy is not getting the attention it deserves because Frist et. al. have hijacked the Senate, but now this!

How many dead bodies because that egotist won't climb down from his high horse....?

[OilsNotWell]

Even though this may not be connected to H5N1, or WSN/33 (Dr. Niman said it is H3

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')3N8 in Greyhounds in Northeast Cause for Concern

Recombinomics Commentary
May 14, 2005

>> ``We really don't know if this is a mutated virus from what everybody's used to,'' Giacoppo added. ``Nobody seems to know what's going on. It's a mystery disease.''