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When will the next U.S. civil war begin?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

When will the next U.S. civil war begin?

soon
0
0%
2012
2
No votes
2013
3
No votes
2014
0
0%
2015
1
No votes
sometime between 2015 and 2020
4
No votes
after 2020
4
No votes
never
7
No votes
 
Total votes : 21

Re: When will the next U.S. civil war begin?

Unread postby oowolf » Thu 03 Mar 2011, 18:59:14

When the USD crashes and the Fed can no longer bribe the individual states into submitting to Federal control. Judging from the considerable number of "nullification" bills currently before the Montana Legislature, this potential situation is on the minds of many of our citizens. I know there was recently a bill in South Carolina to create a state currency.
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Re: When will the next U.S. civil war begin?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 03 Mar 2011, 20:19:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'W')e did this calculation the other day, didn't we?

Here is the Shoe-Throwers Index from The Economist:

Image http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailycha ... rest_index

Perhaps some insomniac could plug in some numbers for the US, here are the criteria:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he chart is the result of ascribing a weighting of 35% for the share of the population that is under 25; 15% for the number of years the government has been in power; 15% for both corruption and lack of democracy as measured by existing indices [perhaps Transparency International; Freedom House?]; 10% for GDP per person; 5% for an index of censorship and 5% for the absolute number of people younger than 25.


Nationmaster might be a good source too
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: When will the next U.S. civil war begin?

Unread postby Oakley » Thu 03 Mar 2011, 20:37:59

According to the authors of "The Fourth Turning", recurring patterns in history indicate that the current crisis will resolve itself in violence sometime between now and 2020. This violence could be civil war (revolution) or WWIII or a combination of both.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest- ... revolution

I think there is a revolution point that is reached when the pain of going along with the plunder and control of a current government is significantly greater than the pain that comes from fighting back.

As to who will be fighting whom, I think there will be three camps. One will be those who currently control the government and benefit from it. Secondly will be those currently out of power who want more government to take care of them. Thirdly will be those who want little or no government. The idea that people will be fighting against the evil bankers or evil military is I believe a misconception. Just like in the civil war of 1861, it will be neighbor killing neighbor and even brother killing brother.

I think the desperation people will feel in the struggle to survive the energy related economic contraction will intensify the brutality of the coming conflict. The 1776 and 1861 civil conflicts were fought in better economic times where economic survival was not a major issue.
"The deepest sin against the human mind is to believe things without evidence" Thomas H Huxley
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