[Leanan]

Would be interesting to see if commuting distances have gotten longer since the '70s. My feeling is that they have, but I don't have any hard numbers.

[lexicon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'I') was talking with a friend today about the '70s oil crisis. (He had seen a promo for Oil Storm, and we got to discussing gas prices.) He was old enough to be driving during the '70s oil shock, and remembers it as being terrible.

[RockHind]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xample: A minimum wage worker can only buy about 2 gallons of gas for an hours' work right now. This compares to nearly 4 gallons a couple of years ago.

[Daculling]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'p')up55 ...good point but in regards to the schmoe at the bottom of the heap. Back in the mid-70's he likely drove a huge chrysler or chev with fuel economy that is no where near what he can get from his KIA or SmartCar today.

[scrod]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daculling', '
')Rockdoc123... I assume you don't live in the U.S. (what the hell is a KIA?)

[ubercrap]

Right, Kia's are Korean cars readily available in the states, SmartCars were going to be imported, but Mercedes axed that idea.

[k_semler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RockHind', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xample: A minimum wage worker can only buy about 2 gallons of gas for an hours' work right now. This compares to nearly 4 gallons a couple of years ago.

[pup55]

http://peakoil.com/fortopic1121.html

My bad. All of my spreadsheets are in this post, along with an explanation of the index.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')up55... Maybe you could caculate against a barrel of crude seeing that everything we consume is based on that. That way you get buying power across the board.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'W')ould be interesting to see if commuting distances have gotten longer since the '70s. My feeling is that they have, but I don't have any hard numbers.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n 1977, I owned a 1965 ford mustang, that got 20 miles per gallon city and 25 highway. Today, I am driving a POS Kia that gets 20 miles per gallon city and 25 highway, so not much difference, except back then, I was driving a classic mustang, and now, I am driving a little korean piece of junk.

[jaakkeli]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'W')ould be interesting to see if commuting distances have gotten longer since the '70s. My feeling is that they have, but I don't have any hard numbers.

[pup55]

Here is my spreadsheet on income, taxes, and mortgage
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') Income Taxes Mortgage Ccard disp income
2005 Est 26,107
2004 $44,531 $9,799 $7,980 $963 $25,789
2003 $43,658 $9,607 $7,624 $956 $25,471
2002 $42,802 $9,419 $7,562 $932 $24,888
2001 $42,629 $9,381 $7,795 $865 $24,587
2000 $42,233 $9,850 $8,172 $810 $23,401
1999 $40,750 $9,447 $7,477 $781 $23,045
1998 $38,967 $9,073 $7,088 $748 $22,059
1997 $37,177 $9,153 $6,903 $696 $20,425
1996 $35,486 $8,740 $6,470 $606 $19,669
1995 $34,106 $8,383 $6,099 $509 $19,115
1994 $32,385 $7,925 $5,654 $445 $18,362
1993 $31,272 $7,655 $5,349 $418 $17,850
1992 $30,631 $7,498 $5,711 $394 $17,028
1991 $30,147 $7,416 $5,743 $356 $16,632
1990 $29,781 $7,335 $6,062 $315 $16,069
1989 $28,925 $7,052 $5,876 $279 $15,718
1988 $27,291 $6,637 $5,709 $244 $14,701
1987 $26,055 $6,045 $5,116 $222 $14,672
1986 $24,979 $6,190 $5,046 $191 $13,552
1985 $23,735 $5,801 $5,470 $152 $12,312
1984 $22,547 $5,332 $6,141 $123 $10,950
1983 $21,105 $5,019 $5,854 $111 $10,121
1982 $20,195 $4,940 $6,109 $105 $9,042
1981 $19,141 $4,822 $6,550 $97 $7,672
1980 $17,807 $4,217 $5,465 $91 $8,035
1979 $16,495 $3,810 $4,160 $76 $8,449
1978 $15,010 $3,235 $3,263 $65 $8,447
1977 $13,671 $2,834 $2,752 $33 $8,052
1976 $12,762 $2,582 $2,480 $28 $7,672
1975 $11,787 $2,361 $2,288 $26 $7,113
1974 $11,206 $2,164 $2,028 $22 $6,992
1973 $10,402 $1,942 $1,688 $19 $6,753
1972 $9,625 $1,579 $1,571 $17 $6,458
1971 $8,965 $1,428 $1,456 $10 $6,071

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ey, do you know when Oil Storm is going to air? I'd like to watch it or tape it.

[Daculling]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ey, do you know when Oil Storm is going to air? I'd like to watch it or tape it.

[rockdoc123]

Pup 55. Interesting numbers....especially the one that shows purchasing power for things other than oil (your example beer) has suffered worse than that for petrol. I have a question in regards to the raw data. One of the things that might throw error into the analysis is the assumption that all the distributions are either normal or non-skewed lognormal. I suspect that isn't the case. I can't remember where I read it but apparently 80% of the North American wealth is in the hands of 20% of the population. That 20% doesn't necessarily consume more food or fuel. It would be interesting to see the full distributions of these "mean" estimates for the various variables. As well it would be interesting to look at how many are totally independent variables versus dependant. A good check on your analysis would be to look at a single wage earner in 1975 versus the equivalent wage earner in 2005. As an example you could take the salary of a plumber in 1975, assume he would drive a 5-10 year old car with the equivalent gas mileage, figure out what the level of his mortgage would be ....etc. etc. This would avoid the possible statistical problems.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne of the things that might throw error into the analysis is the assumption that all the distributions are either normal or non-skewed lognormal.

[RiverRat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RockHind', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xample: A minimum wage worker can only buy about 2 gallons of gas for an hours' work right now. This compares to nearly 4 gallons a couple of years ago.

[pup55]

Here is your data on the energy purchasing power of fatcats vs. schmoes since 1971:


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Fatcat Schmoe Fatcat Schmoe
bbl oil bbl oil Gal Fuel Gal Fuel
2005 Est 3395 522 77164 11867
2004 Est 4120 645 84521 13225
2003 5639 883 107664 16868
2002 6275 995 106101 16816
2001 6681 1006 106735 16070
2000 5329 821 97347 15000
1999 7925 1282 116732 18889
1998 10565 1735 119948 19695
1997 6661 1070 98593 15834
1996 5743 952 92017 15248
1995 6547 1123 92073 15797
1994 6925 1161 93623 15694
1993 6133 1052 88957 15256
1992 4154 881 67443 14309
1991 3731 831 62190 13860
1990 3117 677 60620 13171
1989 4106 862 70602 14828
1988 4370 985 67934 15314
1987 3536 800 67522 15284
1986 3869 946 59569 14573
1985 1717 447 39383 10260
1984 1333 380 31972 9125
1983 1203 352 28131 8229
1982 913 285 22646 7064
1981 593 224 15067 5683
1980 656 225 19203 6586
1979 949 281 32377 9601
1978 2120 621 44351 12996
1977 2050 605 42601 12582
1976 2076 620 42842 12787
1975 2053 617 41535 12479
1974 2026 604 44268 13193
1973 7420 2053 62592 17315
1972 9785 2604 67410 17939
1971 9745 2710 60638 16864

[rockdoc123]

Good one Pup55. This kind of analysis is really useful because it gets to the heart of the matter as to why we are where we are.....good ole greed and avarice methinks.
Makes me think back to my undergrad economics courses that dealt with materialism and the rise of communism in the Soviet Union.....oh oh can history repeat itself?

Scenario: Oil prices rise to $80/bbl and fuel costs follow....manufacturing goods also follow suit due to higher op costs. Joe Blow on the street can't afford anything but the "fat cats" are still consuming and driving prices even higher. Large gangs of disgruntled Average Schmoes form and raid Bill Gates bunker in Seattle and then a separate group take Warren Buffett hostage and threaten to behead him unless Bush releases all of the oil in strategic storage. OK a bit of Sci Fi there.
But a snapshot of reality is back in the late eighties/early nineties I was in Algers ....it was a pretty good place, friendly people, beautiful climate, good food and even the wine wasn't that bad. Then the Dinar devalued to half in just a couple of days. The Average Algerian Schmoe went from being able to buy enough food for his family to not being able to even afford unleavened bread. Unemployment skyrocketed because there was noone buying anything that was made. The Mullahs took quick advantage and sold all the young average schmoes on the fact that they had no future in this life but the next one would be good....virgins and good food for everyone! Hence the situation where they are now.
So do you think it could happen in North America as well?

[Cash]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'I') was talking with a friend today about the '70s oil crisis. (He had seen a promo for Oil Storm, and we got to discussing gas prices.) He was old enough to be driving during the '70s oil shock, and remembers it as being terrible. He was working as a cable installer, and so needed gas. He would go to the gas station at 10pm, park at the pump, and go to sleep. When he woke up the next day, the line behind him would be blocks long.

He also remembers the economic effects as being devastating. No one had money for gas or shopping, so his once-bustling neighborhood became a ghost town. People were losing their jobs left and right. Crime rose, because people were frustrated and didn't have anything else to do. It's not something he ever wants to see happen again.