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2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 14 Feb 2011, 20:01:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vaseline2008', 'T')o be a true AI wouldn't the AI need to be given the freedom to choose whether it is "good" or "evil"?



Good and evil are human constructs. Not sure an autonomous AI would recognize them.
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby kiwichick » Mon 14 Feb 2011, 20:50:30

sixstrings;"eliminates oodles of jobs"

fed considers 6.7% unemployment the new normal (in the US)

compared to previous normal of 5%

in the 1960's in New Zealand the then Prime Minister kept a list
of the unemployed in his desk

@ one stage the list had 6 names on it

the population of NZ was approx 2.5 million at the time
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby americandream » Mon 14 Feb 2011, 21:23:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vaseline2008', 'T')o be a true AI wouldn't the AI need to be given the freedom to choose whether it is "good" or "evil"?



Good and evil are human constructs. Not sure an autonomous AI would recognize them.


Good and evil are practical constructs (though not necessarily logical) born of the individual will to live. Assuming said AI is mortal, it will be subject to all of the functions we are circumscribed by. Having said that, a higher level of awareness necessarily contemplates a greater degree of reason and common destiny so to that extent, and if thats the case, there will be differences.
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 14 Feb 2011, 21:32:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')Good and evil are practical constructs (though not necessarily logical) born of the individual will to live.


I thought what was meant was good and evil as moral constructs. I'm not convinced other sentient creatures have a concept of "good" and "evil" much like our own, in a moral sense. How can we know? Considering humans do not even know what consciousness is, it seems a bit hubristic to make definite claims about the consciousness of non-humans.
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby vaseline2008 » Tue 15 Feb 2011, 13:11:39

Has anyone been following the TV Show Jeopardy with IBM's Watson computer playing along? Interesting times indeed.

As for the good and evil argument, perhaps I opened up a can of worms, but however in nature all species are competitive and have the desire to be the dominant species. Interestingly enough, it seems that money has also taken that path in a capitalistic system where money seems to know nothing but to make more of itself.

In my mind if an AI were created with competition built in...then I don't see how we won't end up like "The Matrix".
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 15 Feb 2011, 13:39:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vaseline2008', ' ')in nature all species are competitive and have the desire to be the dominant species.



False.
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 15 Feb 2011, 18:12:26

01010111 01101000 01100001 01110100 00100000 01100001 00100000 01101100 01101111 01100001 01100100 00100000 01101111 01100110 00100000 01100010 01110101 01101100 01101100 01110011 01101000 01101001 01110100 00101110
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby vaseline2008 » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 13:40:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vaseline2008', ' ')in nature all species are competitive and have the desire to be the dominant species.



False.


How is this false? Either your species is on the rise or heading towards extinction...it is never static. In order for any species to propagate itself is to increase in number, afterall there is strength in numbers. The reason for adaptation of any species is for survival purposes, they don't adapt they go extinct. The reason they adapt is to continue on. As for the term "competitive" perhaps it is not the best term however the desire to continue to live and thrive is inherent in all species from bacteria to us human beings.

Take the HIV/AIDS virus for example, it doesn't want to die so it continually adapts and changes and that's why scientists have such a hard time coming up with a cure. Once they create an antibody to kill one strain of the virus, the virus mutates and adapts to another form and continues on.

Sure the gazelle doesn't go and attack lions so that their species continue on living but they will do everything they can to increase their herd size so that even with losses to lions their species will continue to go on and thrive.

Any species that may seem like they are in state of static growth is due to the physical limits preventing their continued growth, whether it may be a food source or habitat restraints or any other limitation to them. Take for example the yeast in beer, there comes a point where the yeast has no more sugar molecules to eat and in their constrained environment (the vat) they simply die and you have beer to drink. This is the reason why no fermentation process exceeds a certain limit. Hard liquor and other distilled spirits are created outside of this environment and distilled instead of fermented.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '0')1010111 01101000 01100001 01110100 00100000 01100001 00100000 01101100 01101111 01100001 01100100 00100000 01101111 01100110 00100000 01100010 01110101 01101100 01101100 01110011 01101000 01101001 01110100 00101110

The above translated = "What a load of bullsh!t." Nice... :lol:
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 14:09:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vaseline2008', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vaseline2008', ' ')in nature all species are competitive and have the desire to be the dominant species.



False.


How is this false? Either your species is on the rise or heading towards extinction...it is never static.



Species have no "desire." Species adapt to conditions through evolution. Either they adapt, or they go extinct. There is no "desire to be the dominant species." "The dominant species" doesn't even make sense in the context of evolution. There is no such thing as "the dominant species."
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 14:24:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Watson Supercomputer Terminates Humans in First Jeopardy Round

IBM supercomputer Watson closed the pod-bay doors on its human competition Tuesday night in the first round of a two-game Jeopardy match designed to showcase the latest advances in artificial intelligence. The contest concludes Wednesday.

By the end of the Tuesday’s shellacking, Jeopardy’s greatest champions, Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter, were sporting decidedly sour looks.

Watson had a near-miss at the end of the game, when it incorrectly answered the Final Jeopardy clue, but when the dust settled, the supercomputer had earned $35,734, blowing out Rutter and Jennings, who had earned $10,400 and $4800, respectively.

That final missed clue puzzled IBM scientists. The category was US Cities, and the clue was: “Its largest airport was named for a World War II hero; its second largest, for a World War II battle.”

Rutter and Jennings both correctly wrote “What is Chicago?” for O’Hare and Midway, but Watson’s response was a baffling “What is Toronto???” complete with the additional question marks.
http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2011/02/watson-game-one


Interesting.. why would the supercomputer add those additional question marks. Odd how little sparks of humanity can come out like that.. ????? seems a very human thing to add when one isn't sure about a guess.

EDIT:
Here's the video..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7h4baBEi0iA&feature=player_embedded

Interesting thing is that the supercomputer knew it wasn't sure and so didn't bet much on that Toronto answer.

Background video on Watson from IBM:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FC3IryWr4c8

At the end, the scientist says "it's limitless, the things you can apply this technology too." Yup, it sure is.. and it will mean A LOT OF PEOPLE losing their jobs. This Watson computer is a big step in that coming watershed I mentioned earlier, a question-answering system that can understand and speak fluently with humans. Once they have that, many millions of jobs are gone.
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby basil_hayden » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 15:13:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Watson Supercomputer Terminates Humans in First Jeopardy Round

IBM supercomputer Watson closed the pod-bay doors on its human competition Tuesday night in the first round of a two-game Jeopardy match designed to showcase the latest advances in artificial intelligence. The contest concludes Wednesday.

By the end of the Tuesday’s shellacking, Jeopardy’s greatest champions, Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter, were sporting decidedly sour looks.

Watson had a near-miss at the end of the game, when it incorrectly answered the Final Jeopardy clue, but when the dust settled, the supercomputer had earned $35,734, blowing out Rutter and Jennings, who had earned $10,400 and $4800, respectively.

That final missed clue puzzled IBM scientists. The category was US Cities, and the clue was: “Its largest airport was named for a World War II hero; its second largest, for a World War II battle.”

Rutter and Jennings both correctly wrote “What is Chicago?” for O’Hare and Midway, but Watson’s response was a baffling “What is Toronto???” complete with the additional question marks.
http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2011/02/watson-game-one


Interesting.. why would the supercomputer add those additional question marks. Odd how little sparks of humanity can come out like that.. ????? seems a very human thing to add when one isn't sure about a guess.

EDIT:
Here's the video..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7h4baBEi0iA&feature=player_embedded

Interesting thing is that the supercomputer knew it wasn't sure and so didn't bet much on that Toronto answer.

Background video on Watson from IBM:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FC3IryWr4c8

At the end, the scientist says "it's limitless, the things you can apply this technology too." Yup, it sure is.. and it will mean A LOT OF PEOPLE losing their jobs. This Watson computer is a big step in that coming watershed I mentioned earlier, a question-answering system that can understand and speak fluently with humans. Once they have that, many millions of jobs are gone.


I watched this and was dumbfounded by the Toronto answer by Watson.
Something appears to be wrong here, from what little I know about computers and logic. Hopefully I can explain it here so others understand it the way I do.

A human reads the clue, and sometimes forgets the category while giving their answer and we all realize that the human is not a dumbass but made a "human" mistake and provides a city from outside the US even though the category is US cities.

But how could a computer, or Watson if it's not a true computer, "forget" the category or make a simple "human" mistake? The first thing Watson should have registered is that the answer had to be a US city, not a Canadian one.

Can someone smarter than me explain how a computer can make this kind of mistake, or forget what category it was working with? And if this is going to be par for the course, how can we rely on AI to solve all our problems? Can computers forget, or was it a mistake, or some kind of "glitch"? Was Watson pining for some heavy crowd sighs and pity? I can see where a computer was not programmed for a specific answer, but if you entered "US city, two airports, one named after WWII hero" into Google, the first thing that comes up is Chicago. Suddenly I'm not so worried about the Skynet scenario. Maybe Watson belongs on one of those Japanese game shows and not Jeopardy?
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby vision-master » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 15:38:02

It's beyond yer reptilian brain......... :lol:
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 15:55:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'B')ut how could a computer, or Watson if it's not a true computer, "forget" the category or make a simple "human" mistake? The first thing Watson should have registered is that the answer had to be a US city, not a Canadian one.

Can someone smarter than me explain how a computer can make this kind of mistake, or forget what category it was working with?

...Suddenly I'm not so worried about the Skynet scenario. Maybe Watson belongs on one of those Japanese game shows and not Jeopardy?


Because Watson is designed to be used by the public at call centers. Sometimes a query is from someone who has made some sort of "human" mistake in formulating the question at the outset. If you are a call center, you would like your system to be able to handle fuzzy information like incorrect and missing query information.

So Watson could not pull enough out of its database to the Jeopardy! question. It then just followed what its probability generators produced and coughed out "Toronto".
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby basil_hayden » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 17:02:13

So Carl, are you saying that Watson coughed out an incorrect answer on purpose?

I can understand an incomplete database (human error) but not the logic of knowingly providing a wrong answer. Obviously the IBMers do not understand either according the articles posted above (it must be their reptilian brain, right vomit-master?)
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby basil_hayden » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 17:03:43

Woops, doubla...
Last edited by basil_hayden on Wed 16 Feb 2011, 17:46:43, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby vision-master » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 17:32:43

No, yours..

See that little red area. 8)

That's you.

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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby basil_hayden » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 17:45:57

At least mine works, maybe you have this problem instead...

http://www.aolnews.com/2011/02/12/chase-britton-boy-without-a-cerebellum-baffles-doctors/

I wonder if you could get on Special Olympics Jeopardy?
Prolly not, they have standards you can't meet. :lol:
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 21:41:44

Ok I like Vision, but this off topic arguing in the middle of threads over the reptilian brain thing has gone too far.
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby Dezakin » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 10:19:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')
Actually Gas raises a good point. If you think about it, "humanity" is more than just neurons. We're hugely influenced by hormones as well -- from testosterone, estrogen, adrenaline, etc. How could that ever be modeled by an AI? And, who we are is really the product of many years of programming, so to speak. How could a computer ever tell a joke, if it's never felt pain?

To create real artificial human intelligence you'd have to model everything, hormones plus all the life experience of being human.

You don't have to model all that stuff. You only have to model the effects of chemical interactions on simulated neurons. Which is what we're doing anyways as the primary motivation of computational neuroscience is drug development.
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Re: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal

Unread postby Dezakin » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 10:24:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NickyBoy', 'T')here are many reasons why a ‘pure’ Artificial Intelligence is unlikely to emerge in the format that the media/vocal supporters present, but the viewpoints of some of the luddites in this thread are significantly wide of the mark (“I do not understand this therefore it cannot happen”- Seriously? That’s the worst aspect of human ignorance being displayed right there.)

Adaptive expert systems designed to work at a very deep interactive level (potentially deeper than via our senses) with humans are far more likely to arrive first, as they are a simple extrapolation of modern technology that provide the majority of the benefits derived from an AI without the need to programmatically reproduce sentience.


Sure expert systems, theorem provers, sat solvers, and other number crunchers will be useful, but the real stuff will happen with simulated brains. We're in the process of developing true AI over the next half century and it has nothing to do with expert systems so much as computational neuroscience.

There's a huge difference in providing your employees with new tools and simply being able to manufacture more employees. In the beginning they'll just be people raised in virtual environments. Kurzweil will like be dead decades by the time we actually can upload people into software however. 2045 is at least two decades too soon.
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