by mos6507 » Sun 09 Jan 2011, 21:19:23
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')I read through this conundrum and my interpretation comes back to the missing catalyst of consequences. Putting so much emphasis on consequences might seem an intellectually lazy position and a refusal to engage in all the nuts and bolts required to get transition started.
To me it keeps revolving around the central question of
last-minute change. If you accept he Hirsch report, that serious mitigation would need to have taken place decades before peakoil, and if you accept what the climate scientists say, that what we do around this time can make or break passing tipping points (like the methane bomb that Cid and a few others think already went off) then waiting around for "consequences" is
SUICIDAL. There, frankly, won't be much left for us to save if we do that.
It seems to me that Greer is much more optimistic when it comes to this point. That's why he pushes Green Wizardry. He seems to think we'll have this explosion of resourcefulness as we scurry around like chickens with our heads cut off, in panic mode. Surely we are a resourceful species, but there is a limit to how you can adapt to serious carrying capacity deficits brought on by peak everything, the depths of which will largely be determined based on how proactive we are starting, like, yesterday.
Let me give you an example. With all the permaculture stuff that is discussed. This stuff needs ramp up time. Lots of ramp up time. Martin Crawford put 15 years into building his temperate food forest, for instance. I hear about grand projects all the time, like planting chestnuts all over median strips in Vermont. Great ideas, but ideas that, based on my timeline of collapse, better the hell get a move on now if they have any hope of paying off when we need them the most. Otherwise you're going to have these piddling little saplings struggling to grow when people are paying $100 for a loaf of bread.
Instead what we will have is whatever last-minute things are possible when people instantly get off their duff, but they are left with land covered in asphalt etc... Sure, you can evoke the Cuban experience all you want, considering that it wasn't the perfect analog of doom that it's sold as. I am not very optimistic that a last-minute approach will have anywhere near the success than starting well in advance.
Maybe that's all we can expect, but I am just not satisfied with this. I am not comforted with the idea that people will hit a breaking point and then rush to their shovels to start planting potatoes. If that means you're going to have Cassandras out there trying to preach to deaf ears, my hat's off to them. Go out there, burn yourself out, take a break, then get back out there and be spat on again.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')But this "Deep Transition" vs "Lite Transition" debate only really points out that the wheels are spinning in the mud and the transmission hasn't yet engaged the gears.
More specifically what is going on is a costly and time-consuming diversion of the blame-game. Instead of making the leap of judging others in a negative light, which would in essence cause us to classify them as incorrigible and hence write them off, Transitioners are starting to burn their own at the stake. So suddenly it's Mike Brownlee or other "uppity" people who are sabotaging the movement by laying it down straight, not that people might just be ignorant, gullible, or selfish. By Transition avoiding the dogmatic, it also has no real teeth. Since nobody's lifestyle can be "wrong" and everybody is welcomed in the tent, what can we ever expect people to do?
Transition Towns act like direct democracy, so they "go where they want to go". If you happen to live in West Virginia, that might mean the town opting for "relocalized" CTL plant, since we all know global warming's a crock and we have to keep the cars running. Rob's not the Pope so he's not going to tell a WV transition town to say no to coal if that's what their strongest natural resource is.
You see what I mean? If a Transition movement can only reflect the preexisting culture of the populace, then it will always lead to a "brown tech" approach to an EDAP. It will not engage in a complete paradigm shift.
If that's all Transition aims to do, then count me out.