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Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

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Re: Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 04 Dec 2010, 15:46:07

I save myself by having most of them on ignore most of the time. Otherwise I'd have to chew my own legs off. :)
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Re: Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 04 Dec 2010, 16:12:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')[While] a handful of Americans are going back to work, ... they are doing so at much lower pay.



While the top 1% make more money than ever!

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/24/busin ... .html?_r=1

Welcome to Neo-feudalism.
But those rich people create important jobs for yacht builders, Ferrari-buffers, and human lawn jockeys.


I was reading somewhere that in 1900 there were about 1.5 million domestic servants "in service" in England, assuming the population was around 30 million at the time that's 5%.

The rich today don't employ a fraction of that amount today, may be different when the supply of oil dwindles to the point that it's only used for the essentials.
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Re: Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

Unread postby Cog » Sat 04 Dec 2010, 16:18:46

I always wanted some domestics around. Wonder if I can hire pstarr.
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Re: Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sat 04 Dec 2010, 17:05:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '@')Xenophobe

You consider nearly $90/bbl crude oil prices low?


Compared to what they should be, if we were facing our crude crackhoe habit seriously? Damn right they are low. And because of it, gasoline is way too low as well.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '
') This is an economy that is struggling to grow its way out of a very deep recession? What do you consider a high oil price?


Anything that would give us a solid, and consistent, $5-7/gal gasoline price. Call it a doubling of what we have now.
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Re: Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sat 04 Dec 2010, 17:10:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')The problem is that small business and large corporations spend more on energy, leaving less money for profit, expansion, and hiring new workers.


Sure. Until they make the investments necessary to cut their energy use. Which means the jobs they DON'T create, by not hiring for a period of time, are created somewhere else as solar panel, hybrid and EV manufacturers kick into overdrive to provide the necessary capital improvements. Presto...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Planetagenet', '
')High energy prices produce recessions, and the increasing energy prices we are seeing now increase the chance of the US plunging back into a double dip recession, destroying millions more jobs and pushing any recovery years further away.


But when we made exactly the sort of investments I mentioned above through the 70's, and started creating a higher GDP/Barrel environment, we had nearly a generation of pretty decent improvements in lifestyle and productivity. From such small investments...and yes...some pain...are such large improvements possible. Its not like people are going to give up their crude swilling ways willingly, any more than they wanted to give up their 10mpg 6000# monster cars back in the 70's. But gave them up they did...with the proper incentive. Incentive is a good thing. And it applies to businesses as well.
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Re: Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sat 04 Dec 2010, 17:16:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Actually I blame the oil companies. They should have known and warned us about peak oil.


They did. Don't blame the scientists for not telling you if you aren't willing to take the time to read what they have written.

M. King Hubbert, Chief Consultant (General Geology), Exploration and Production Research Division, Shell Development Company, Publication Number 95, Houston, Texas, June 1956, Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7-8-9, 1956.

Sorry, no Cliff Notes version.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/13630
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Re: Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

Unread postby deMolay » Sat 04 Dec 2010, 17:22:31

The really really big difference between now and the 70's is that millions of Boomers have quit spending and are now saving. They are like cats trying to cover shit on a hot tin roof, with nowhere to jump. The other big item is that home values have collapsed and can no longer be used as a line of credit.
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Re: Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 04 Dec 2010, 17:32:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'T')he really really big difference between now and the 70's is that millions of Boomers have quit spending and are now saving.


The other big difference involving the boomers is that millions of boomers are starting to retire now, and the government has to start finding money to pay their social security. Democrats can no longer pretend that their social security payments will be covered by the non-existent social security "trust fund"----the need to find money for social security payments is another thing that is busting the federal budget and screwing up the economy and slowing any recovery.
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Re: Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 04 Dec 2010, 17:52:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')I'd blame just about anyone--the Kenyans, ancient astronaut or sunspots--before I'd blame Ludi for this lousy state we are in.



Oh why not blame me? I'm sure I've done something to cause the problems we're having! :)

Probably didn't have enough babies or something.


<<<<<<never had babies
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Re: Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

Unread postby vision-master » Sat 04 Dec 2010, 18:57:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'T')he really really big difference between now and the 70's is that millions of Boomers have quit spending and are now saving.


The other big difference involving the boomers is that millions of boomers are starting to retire now, and the government has to start finding money to pay their social security. Democrats can no longer pretend that their social security payments will be covered by the non-existent social security "trust fund"----the need to find money for social security payments is another thing that is busting the federal budget and screwing up the economy and slowing any recovery.


Christ, do you even have a job? Daddy will take care of little ol Planted. :) Tell us about taht 5 miles of river front!
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Re: Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sat 04 Dec 2010, 19:24:44

Image

Image

There are a myriad of reasons why high energy prices are bad for economic growth but the impact on productivity growth is, in my opinion, one of the key ones.

When oil prices shoot up, firms are forced to invest in schemes to reduce their oil consumption, at the cost of other investments.

Say a factory has $50,000 to either buy a new radiator or a new conveyor belt. In a world of low energy prices, the company would buy the conveyor belt and increase production. In a world of high energy prices, they company has to buy the heater, depriving them of the capital necessary to expand production. Multiply this by tens of millions of businesses and the world gets poorer.

To make matters worse, the impact is asymmetrical. People (at least historically) tend to overreact to high oil prices and make a lot of bad investments out of fear. Incidentally, the same happens with taxes/subsidies. Lots of people bought cars they couldn't afford to take advantage of a small tax credit under the Cash For Clunkers program.
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Re: Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sat 04 Dec 2010, 19:31:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', ' ')Multiply this by tens of millions of businesses and the world gets poorer.


Until the cost savings pay back the original investment and now they have higher efficiency?
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Re: Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 04 Dec 2010, 19:44:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'O')bama's energy policy is just as misguided as his economic policies. He supports Quantitative Easing and cutting off domestic offshore oil drilling---- both policies that have helped to drive oil prices to $90 and higher. Higher oil prices hurt the poor and impact businesses, and ultimately destroy jobs.


Well.. saving whatever domestic oil we can is SMART in terms of peak oil mitigation. We should continue to use foreign oil right up until the whole world is falling apart and oil can't be found anywhere.. then that would be the time to tap our last reserves.

If you were about to get snowed in Plant, would you say "we're gonna run out of food let's go eat every last thing in the cupboard?"
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Re: Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 04 Dec 2010, 19:47:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'S')kip a slurpie a week and it nets out to not change at all.


It's slrupees and plastic pumpkin cashier clerks that provide the jobs in this "service" economy. You can't have it both ways Xeno, you can't be a cornucopian then say the jobless and poor should just stop consuming -- if the nation stops consuming we descend into deflationary depression.
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Re: Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 04 Dec 2010, 19:53:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')'d blame just about anyone--the Kenyans, ancient astronaut or sunspots--before I'd blame Ludi for this lousy state we are in.


As for far as declining resources, there's nobody to blame other than human nature -- just like any other species that's too successful, has no natural predators, and so over-populates beyond what its environment can support.

But if we're talking about declining living standards in the first world.. you can blame globalism for that.
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Re: Jobless America Can't Survive $90 Oil

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sat 04 Dec 2010, 19:58:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'S')kip a slurpie a week and it nets out to not change at all.


It's slrupees and plastic pumpkin cashier clerks that provide the jobs in this "service" economy. You can't have it both ways Xeno, you can't be a cornucopian then say the jobless and poor should just stop consuming -- if the nation stops consuming we descend into deflationary depression.


The jobless and the poor have already stopped consuming, maybe some couldn't even consume in the first place. Its the 90% with jobs still running around buying discretionary stuff which matters, and of course, they wouldn't be bothered by a 25% jump in gasoline at all, and are the ones who could afford to mitigate against it if they were.
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