by Outcast_Searcher » Tue 30 Nov 2010, 18:16:24
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'T')he key questions other than will it work on humans are, How much will it cost? and Who will be allowed to access it?
I'll address your questions.
Will it work on humans? Probably (90% confident)
Cost? Initially high, coming down fast. Price of doctor's visit and administered drugs, lab analysis, and ongoing drug therapy. The principal cost will be the drugs themselves due to capital investment by the Drug co's.
Who will be allowed to access it? There are no qualifications, as with most drugs. Insurance Co's will likely pay for it, as it is a form of gene therapy that will replace costlier operations and procedures.
These products are not made from rare South american trees that only grow in the wild.
Probably the riskiest part of the therapy will be the delivery of genes into a living genome. It will probably be accomplished with a modified HIV virus.
We're still aways off from implementing a consumer therapeutic, my guess is 5-6 years.
Is this spitballing, or do you actually have reliable sources / insider insight into the science behind this?
How about risks / side effects? How much testing of something like this would be needed before we'd have some intelligent assessment of the risks of things like cancer or any number of things caused by metabolic changes?
How do we ethically test that? Give it to hordes of nursing home volunteers, and hope they become healthy 30 or 50 year olds? Assuming it's not that easy, wouldn't determining long term effects take a LONG time?
How do you know this can replace other procedures? Will this fix a bad heart or liver by making it younger? Or are you presuming that the anti-aging will prevent (or delay) many such problems?
. . .
This kind of thing sounds GREAT medically if it works reliably. If it just improves the quality of life, that's super.
If it actually greatly improves longevity, then the can of social, cost, and constraint worms THAT opens up gives one pause.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
by Narz » Wed 01 Dec 2010, 13:54:55
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'P')ersonally, I don't like the ageing process one single bit.
Me neither.
“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
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by BlisteredWhippet » Wed 01 Dec 2010, 23:07:09
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'm')y guess is 5-6 years.
so if I can only hang on for five more years, then I am good to go?
Will I age backwards or will I be stuck with the paunch I have now?
You will age backwards. The paunch is history, too, if you want it.
I think immortality will be a good thing. Death and fear of death is the driver of so much hopelessness and inaction- in positive directions. People spend their lives recklessly because there is conceived to be a limit on things. These reckless decisions are based on primal fear produced by moments of panic. People don't value the Earth because it is just a backdrop sailing by. If people had to live in the world they were involved in creating, I think you would see an increase in thoughtful and responsible use.
Also, the great tragedy of death is the destruction of wisdom, skills, and knowledge in the form of minds. Reversing senescence would create whole new categories of human being we have never had before: a person with the wisdom of 125 years without the fogginess of neurological degeneration, for example. These people would be a tremendous source of help to humankind.
by BlisteredWhippet » Thu 02 Dec 2010, 00:52:18
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Is this spitballing, or do you actually have reliable sources / insider insight into the science behind this?
No, I just know. Trust me.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')How about risks / side effects? How much testing of something like this would be needed before we'd have some intelligent assessment of the risks of things like cancer or any number of things caused by metabolic changes?
What the research shows is that telomerase helps DNA from being damaged. Everyone already expresses telomerase. Your unusually long lifespan as a human being is testament to its effect.
The expression of telomerase tends to fall over time. Eventually the telomerase isn't around in sufficient quantities to fix all the errors. They mount with every new cell division and dysfunction proceeds- your DNA gets shorter and shorter. Depending on the tissue you get different effects, all bad. Think Cancer. Think Birth defects. Dementia. So, a reinvigoration of telomerase would step in and top off the tank. The easiest way to do that would splice some new DNA into your existing DNA. A great way to do with is with a modified HIV virus (with all the bad parts taken out). This modified HIV would infect you, only instead of inserting bad viral DNA into your DNA, if would insert some new telomerase code, and voila, you're making telomerase again.
Why does telomerase expression fall over time? That is another good question. I think all the clues are there. Take a small child, lock him in a room for 12 years and beat him senseless, and he will likely have shortened telomeres. Monk sits on hillside meditating, improves telomerase function. It is all, I think, a throwback to ancient evolutionary heritage when we were all just multicelled protoplasms bumping up against each other. Individual cells had to know when to die for the group. Today, we are just bigger bags of cells, each having its own little "time to die" liquefaction factor.
Its also a consequence of having double-stranded DNA as opposed to our single-strand competitors (the bacteria). They evolved the opposite strategy of reproducing fast, a few mistakes, no big deal while we have lots of error-correcting functions.
Big bonus now is that we know what is going on a little better. Is it so sensational to ruminate on what we can accomplish by bringing in foreign DNA to our own? For example, we find an organism somewhere, it has a novel DNA repair mechanism. We modify virus, we incorporate DNA. Presto-life extension. Whats the problem? Too much UV light? Can't tolerate modern pollution? Cancer got'cha down? Some bug somewhere is already kicking its ass.
This is why we want to make very sure we don't destroy all life on Earth. Those organisms have genes we'd like to add to our own collection.
There are a few ways a protein's expression can be limited. One is an inhibitor of some kind preventing expression. The other possibility is that expression subsides because of some other function. This can occur due to physical damage. Since telomeres are only really critical in dividing cells, the stem cells are really the only important cells to look at.
Personally, since across the animal kingdom the problem of telomere shortening occurs, it is conserved, genetically, and serves the biologic imperative of evolution. In other words, it proves evolution loves species at the expense of individuals.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')How do we ethically test that? Give it to hordes of nursing home volunteers, and hope they become healthy 30 or 50 year olds? Assuming it's not that easy, wouldn't determining long term effects take a LONG time?
Well, it really depends on whether or not we want government telling us what we can and can't do to our bodies. Volunteers for medical research, yes, that works. Long term effects shouldn't be a big deal. There are things we don't understand, but there is no reason to fear anyone's having cells that express telomerase. Gene therapies eventually progress to augmenting or replacing deficiencies in producing all sorts of normal, natural proteins.
I'd say there is a very low likelihood of side effects for other reasons related to the structure of DNA.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')How do you know this can replace other procedures? Will this fix a bad heart or liver by making it younger? Or are you presuming that the anti-aging will prevent (or delay) many such problems?