by Oakley » Sat 13 Nov 2010, 23:05:56
I'll save you some time.
I think that we are heading to civil conflict, whether you call it civil war or revolution.
Crisis periods resulting in violence have been identified as a recurring pattern in western civilization by Strauss and Howe in "The Fourth Turning". The prior three nation threatening crises were resolved by the American Revolution (1776), the Civil War (1861) and World War II (1941); note the four generation spacing between these periods of violence, roughly 80 years. This places the next nation threatening period of violence near 2020.
There is a revolution point that eventually is reached, and either the anger and frustration of the population is directed against the government itself as in the cases of the American Revolution and the Civil War, or the government manages to redirect it against a foreign "enemy" as in the case of WWII. This point is reached when the then current system of government plunder and control brings more pain than the pain that comes with civil violence. People at some point finally have little to lose by attempting to throw off the system that brings them pain. The weight of government is now heavy upon our backs, and increasingly is becoming intolerable.
It should be obvious that we are in a crisis period of increasing intensity, that we have a government that uses its power to favor the few at the expense of the many, and that there is a disconnect between the population and those controlling the government.
Consider that the prior three conflict periods were set against a backdrop of the economic expansion of the industrial age which itself began in the 18th century, and that the current cycle is set against the backdrop of the contraction of the industrial age for want of sufficient energy to fuel it. As Richard Duncan has pointed out, we are past the per capita peak in world energy production and heading down.
We are in the early stages of the revolution and it is still peaceful. The attitudes of people are changing as seen in the Tea Party "rebellion" for example. The idea that people are openly discussing the possibility of revolution or civil war is telling.
And of particular interest is the non compromising characteristic of the "spoiled" baby boomer generation (1945 to 1965 birth dates), the members of which are currently occupying the seats of power, previously occupied by the more compromise oriented silent generation.
The stage is set and all that is needed is an event or series of events that take us beyond the threshold. The thin veneer of civility that civilization demands of us will give way to our inner savagery.
Last edited by
Oakley on Sat 13 Nov 2010, 23:10:09, edited 1 time in total.
"The deepest sin against the human mind is to believe things without evidence" Thomas H Huxley