[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')
I've read the article before. It's a rant against manned space travel, and travel into deep space. I don't advocate either of those things. I propose a robot-based program of trying to harvest solar energy flows on the moon, or in orbit

[Liamj]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', ' ')...
Let’s hope that once the dust settles, we’ll live in a sustainable fashion and still have the knowledge to go along with our new wisdom ... thereby allowing us to truly reach for the stars.

[Ludi]

Where will a huge investment come from post-powerdown?

[Liamj]

Thats JDs problem.

[OilyMon]

I apologize if this is a repeat but I read 4 pages of the thread and didn't see it:

Groundless optimism = denial, delusion
Pragmatism = realism, critical analysis
Runaway pessimism = unrestrained emotional reaction

The problem with groundless optimism is that it is groundless. To be groundlessly optimistic one must consciously look the other way and lie to oneself.

Groundles optimism is a luxury we can no longer afford. I don't think it will be stoneage for everybody, because there are a lot of renewables that are in production right now, but pragmatically, a lot of people must die in order to provide a balanced and sustainable world for the survivors.

[mididoctors]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', ' ')...
Let’s hope that once the dust settles, we’ll live in a sustainable fashion and still have the knowledge to go along with our new wisdom ... thereby allowing us to truly reach for the stars.

[spudbuddy]

Many authors who have seriously examined this issue over the past 30 years keep pointing out the same facts.
Too many people respond to the idea of peak oil by assuming some other source of energy will replace not just oil...but cheap oil.
If this is impossible, or at least financially unfeasable and therefor highly unlikely, it follows that we have to change the way we do things.
One must start by examining how we do things now, and have done for some time.
What is it in our society that consumes so much of the stuff, anyway?
We use it for energy.
Consider how many downtown skyscrapers in any large city are lit up at night like beacons. Is this necessary? Probably not...but it has always been done and we're used to it.
Suburban sprawl: Original suburbs on the edge of cities used to be designed in such a way that no side street was more than a 5 minute walk away from a connecter light rail line.
We've certainly gotten away from that.
Even when your tv set is turned off, it is still drawing power. This gives it that "instant-on" feature that everyone has grown used to. I know that time is money, but that's a little ridiculous. A 15-second warm-up is wasted time?
These are just a few examples of how we waste energy. There are many thousands more.
Because for a long time oil was cheap, we got into the habit of being wasteful with it.
That is one of the first things that will have to drastically change as the effects of peak oil play out.
I imagine it will be market-driven. It makes sense that when energy costs considerably more, everyone will be looking to save money, in that manner.

Logically, any substantial reduction in energy use will increase the shelf-life of the amount of unrenewable fuels we have left. This buys more time for future research and development projects. Who knows?
A decade from now we may have an internal combustion engine that gets 100mpg.
We may find a way to produce enough ethanol to supply a quarter of all the gas we need....especially if fewer people are driving, and driving shorter distances, and less often.

If future growth happens in such a way that no urban sprawl is added to what already exists, but instead housing developments are planned with mass transit in mind, this will be energy-responsible growth, instead of energy wasteful.
It is this kind of mindset that will pay huge dividends.

The opposite mindset: That we have to continually increase energy consumption...that is the road to perdition.
It is obvious that what fuels this mindset is the idea some other form of energy will bail us out.

The point is...this may very well be possible....some day.
In the meanwhile, the sensible thing to do would be to choose discretion as the better part of valor.
If cheap energy is disappearing fast, we have no choice but to act accordingly.

The above examples are but a few of many that will probably wind up on planning boards in years to come. This will happen...because peak oil isn't going to fall on us overnight.
The more changes we make, and as early as we can make them, will have a lot to do with how prepared we are to handle diminishing unrenewable fossil fuels.

Let's face it. We have been consuming the stuff in enormous amounts.
We need it to do the necessary work it does in our society.
If you start a mind-set shift by considering that maybe two thirds of what we use is a ridiculous amount of waste...it follows that many of us would hardly miss what disappears when we cut that out.
If your only other option was walking, would you care that what you drove wasn't an SUV?
If your only other option was a dingy basement apartment, would you care that what you lived in wasn't a 3500 square foot McMansion?
If your only other option was a candle, a wood-burning cookstove, a washboard...would you care that you had to live your life far more energy conscious, flipping switches?

It is understandable that we feel deeply distrustful of a social, political and economic order that has brought us to this crossroad (and still officially hardly whispers about it.)
As a result, we find it hard to trust what anybody is saying about it now.
Historically...there have always been people who spoke out about the issues of the day. Often they were right. This is no different.
Many intelligent people are working on it now. As time goes by, we'll start seeing some of the results.
Once we let go of a lot of the wastefulness, the alternatives won't necessarily be as painful as many people think.
This could be a time when doomsday scenarios abound. That's always been part of the social fabric. Cooler heads, a re-application of responsible technology, and a strong public will can go a long way to solving the problem...if political and economic forces allow it.

I look at it this way: If I'm smart enough to figure even just this little bit out (average IQ) just imagine what the smartest people whose job it actually is, can accomplish?

Once we get off the energy growth bandwagon...this starts looking whole lot different.
Start by asking this simple question: If you have $50 for food for the entire month, are you going to blow that entire amount in the first week? Of course not. Same rule applies.

A suggestion: Instead of all the worst-case scenarios one can imagine (there are many!) imagine that 2 or 3 decades from now, our world has actually improved in some amazing ways. Instead of recession, depression, oil wars, and social chaos, a global turning point the brings us to a level of sustainability not for just a short time, but long after we have gone. That would be a nice legacy.