[Newfie]

I too live in a large center city area, Philadelphia, for some similar reasons, and because I can't get the wife to leave.

I don't see the urbanized city crashing to pillage the outlying rural regions. I see the city crashing into anarchy. I think that the existing city gangs, which represent a form of shadow government in their ghettos, will be more resilient and flexible than traditional organized government. So in this way I see at least the possibility of a rapid decent into some kind of feudalism with the city being broken up into fiefdoms.

I feel that the current under privileged classes may find a distinct advantage against the currently well paid suburban commuter. I don't pretend to know how this will all spin out but I doubt that these gangs will have much time or use for lawyers and bankers.

So our prep strategy is different from many here. Pops, a long time ago, had a thread on the 5 most important things you need to survive. For me this came down to:
Mobility
Water
Food
Flexibility
Skills/Intelligence

Mobility is a blue water boat capable of long unassisted voyages. It is ready to leave on short notice.
Water is 100 gallon expandable tanks in the basement and the boat has 285 gallons in integral tanks.
Food is not something we are hoarding at this moment because I think we will have enough warning to get what we need. 2 million calories per person per year.
Flexibility is in having a multitude of places we can go. We own land in Canada and have family in Canada and Germany and can go other places if needed.
Skills/Intelligence is something that I keep working on and you can never have enough of. Right now my main thrust is in teaching my family how to sail. This is fairly slow going because of their job commitments.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IslandCrow', 'I')n terms of travel time I live in the largest 'city' in the country. In actual fact I am in a very small community that had less than 1000 year-round residents (on all islands) before the recent forced community mergers.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', ' ')I think that the existing city gangs, which represent a form of shadow government in their ghettos, will be more resilient and flexible than traditional organized government. So in this way I see at least the possibility of a rapid decent into some kind of feudalism with the city being broken up into fiefdoms.

[davep]

In a similar fashion to Pops, I got off the housing ladder in 2006 in the UK. The property doubled in value.

I then spent time in Italy doing my job, but looking for a doomstead. I eventually quit my job in a vain attempt to move to the land in Italy. The fact I didn's speak Italian, coupled with the high price of land over there (and it's kinda hilly) meant that I took refuge in a region of France with cheap land (and where I speak the language).

So, after buying the doomstead very cheaply for cash, and having a great time doing farming etc, I ran out of money.

Now I've spent the last two and a half years earning a lot of money in Germany, but due to high overheads (good car, huge weekly commute, apartment in Germany etc) I'm not making anything like the progress I thought I would with the money I earn.

I guess for now I'll just keep plugging away. I've re-subscribed to the French farming course I had to stop when I got a job, only this time I won't need to do the practical stuff for three months. This means I could sell the doomstead and buy a proper large-acreage farm in France.

I still have lots to do before we can sell at a decent profit, and in the meantime I'm assuming it won't happen (I may just buy more farmland next door when I get my farming qualifications). I'm still planting walnuts

I hope that my current job will enable me to support my goals over the next five years. If we get rid of meteorological satellites before that then we really are doomed.

At that point, whether armageddon is arriving or not, I will hopefully be able to get a 250 acre place where my family and friends can come and help as and when things do get serious. This is not an endeavour to take up on your own.

[Expatriot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fredrik', 'M')any say that PO will probably result in major resource war, but I'm not so sure about it. What country still has enough oil to make a war and subsequent occupation profitable? After Iraq, there aren't that much potential candidates. You'd have to not just invade the country, but occupy it permanently, and most importantly, pacify its population to secure continuous oil production. Not going to happen in the Middle East or in Africa.

[DomusAlbion]

We've been preparing (with various success) since 2004. We established our farm in 2005 in a protected valley in the rural Idaho panhandle. We got lots of water, good pasture/fields that sub-irrigate, a forty tree orchard that is 4 years old and producing nicely. We've had a lot of success but failures as well. We're now debt free except for the mortgage and we're planning to be free of that debt early in 2015. So on a personal level I'm hoping that there won't be major disruptions until 2015.

[Expatriot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', 'W')e've been preparing (with various success) since 2004. We established our farm in 2005 in a protected valley in the rural Idaho panhandle. We got lots of water, good pasture/fields that sub-irrigate, a forty tree orchard that is 4 years old and producing nicely. We've had a lot of success but failures as well. We're now debt free except for the mortgage and we're planning to be free of that debt early in 2015. So on a personal level I'm hoping that there won't be major disruptions until 2015.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', ' ')I think that the existing city gangs, which represent a form of shadow government in their ghettos, will be more resilient and flexible than traditional organized government. So in this way I see at least the possibility of a rapid decent into some kind of feudalism with the city being broken up into fiefdoms.

[Cid_Yama]

Time to begin forming "Wings over the World".

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('expatriot', 'M')any have taken to calling the thing a "black swan" event.

[Shar_Lamagne]

Nassim Thaleb? Sounds Muslim. Surely must be on the banned books list for the right-wing.

[Pops]

That's good Smiley, most people go at life like quants went at programing their little black boxes to beat the market - they play on the background noise right? The little differences in price that go on constantly.

Most people fail to code for the occasional outlying event...

[wisconsin_cur]

If the current trend continues my time of being able to leverage money for preparation may be passed. Few extra shifts available; everything else goes into reducing debt, maintaining vehicles and the cost of living.

Depending upon the scenario we may be in a place to weather the future just fine, we have a lot of options or (to use fed speak) a lot of bullets to shoot, but the time of adding to them with money appears, at this moment, largely gone.

There are plenty of other things to do. The bride is slowly taking over the gardening for me (a huge help), I continue to pursue relationships with neighbors near and far as well as adding to my list of core homesteading competencies. There is always something to do.

[oowolf]

I see a currency crisis as the greatest imminent threat to prepping. Most of us still use money to get things done. Having to deal with monetary collapse will complicate matters considerably; the scenario can shift from "prepping" to "surviving" very rapidly, as those who've studied hyperinflation events know. I believe there is a probability of a REAL financial panic in the near future--1 or 2 years...but I've always been somewhat paranoid, and have never claimed to be a seer.
I advise those who listen to move from cash to commodities.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oowolf', '.')..but I've always been somewhat paranoid, and have never claimed to be a seer.
I advise those who listen to move from cash to commodities.

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') advise those who listen to move from cash to commodities.

[halcyon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow much time do you think you have to prepare? Do you have to prepare?

[halcyon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('halcyon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow much time do you think you have to prepare? Do you have to prepare?

[Ferretlover]

IMO, there is more than enough time to prepare--for those in the US.
But, due to the lack of understanding of the concept, and how the time lines (each and every aspect of PO has its own time line) work, and the number of people who have the power and stamina to make the necesary changes, I believe there will be NO widespread effort to prepare any major part of humanity for the increasing resource wars and for plantary changes.

[Newfie]

5 years.

Thats when the civil service pensions are due to run out in Philadelphia, where I live.

I really don't think the cities finest will find it within themselves to be sufficiently motivated if they find out they are not going to get their pensions. Then all hell breaks lose.

8 years for Boston and NY.

http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/fac ... 101011.pdf

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')bstract
We calculate the present value of local government employee pension liabilities as of June 2009 for approximately 2/3rds of the universe of local government employees. Using local government accounting methods, the total unfunded liability in these areas is $190 billion or over $7,000 per municipal household. When government accounting is corrected by discounting already‐promised benefits at zerocoupon Treasury yields, the total unfunded obligation is $383 billion or over $14,000 per local household. If on a per‐member basis the unfunded liability is the same for the 1/3rd of workers covered by municipal plans not in our sample, the total unfunded liability for all municipal plans in the U.S. is $574 billion. This unfunded promise is above and beyond the roughly $3 trillion (or almost $27,000 per
household) unfunded liability of all state‐sponsored pension plans in the U.S. Many U.S. cities are therefore carrying substantial off‐balance‐sheet debt in the form of unfunded pension obligations. We also identify 6 major municipalities whose current pension assets would only be sufficient to pay already‐promised benefits through 2020, and 20 whose current pension assets would only be sufficient to pay already‐promised benefits through 2025.