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THE Stephen Hawking Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby efarmer » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 20:58:08

Take heart Seagyspy, you sail on the ocean under the power of the wind, it is in and of itself, a glorious physics lesson in which one lives the equations, and every time you bring it back to port, you have passed another exam with flying colors. I would gladly sail with you on a moment's notice, I am however convinced you should avoid piloting interplanetary spaceships on missions to save the earth.
It is my sincere hope, skipper, that this will not diminish my shot at a sailboat ride.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 21:01:01

Gypsy, I have no idea what the hell you are talking about except:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ottom line is the idea is a silly masquerade; a distraction from real problems with real solutions, HERE ON EARTH; enough to keep us plenty busy for a few million generations.


I absolutely agree. The ONLY sense space colonization would make would be if we were sufficiently convinced that we were going to cook this planet and we wanted some small, very small, chance of keeping our species alive but sending setting up some very, very small colony somewhere else.

That would do none of us here any good, and might actually shorten our species life span here.

But I would not be at all surprised if this is actually attempted. I have become convinced that humans have very little if any free will, we are here driven to a purpose which we will strive to fulfill. I.e., to promote entropy, which means we must survive as a species.

Kinda weird, but far less than what most people claim as their religious beliefs. At least it has some sense and relation to reality.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 23:03:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'A')t speed of light his mass would grow to infinity (so energy needed to accelerate him to this speed would also be infinite) but marginally below this speed our unlucky astronaut would gravitationally collapse into a black hole or similar alternative object.

No, in his rest frame his mass would seem normal to him - that's why it's called "Relativity".
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 23:44:42

Ancient Vedic principle:

Knowlege of the entire world and workings of the universe;
is nothing, in comparison with knowlege of the self."
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 02:52:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'A')t speed of light his mass would grow to infinity (so energy needed to accelerate him to this speed would also be infinite) but marginally below this speed our unlucky astronaut would gravitationally collapse into a black hole or similar alternative object.

No, in his rest frame his mass would seem normal to him - that's why it's called "Relativity".

You are correct.
Only observers (say from Earth) would see mass increase of astronaut and he would not.

However an astronaut who have collapsed into BH or something similar (as per perception of observers who have sent him) is no longer of any use for them.
Last edited by EnergyUnlimited on Fri 20 Aug 2010, 04:15:36, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 03:29:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')I don't think it matters if it's 2 billion of a trillion or a trillion of a quadrillion, the 44 billion entire life of the sun figure has been thrown around. If enough scientists say something, of course it must be true, right?

There are plenty of cosmological theories.
One can say that we have about as many such theories as we have cosmologists working on them.
Nevertheless we are also doing astronomical observations which are selecting more promising ones.
Subject is vast, needless to say.

For now it seems that Hoyle's Steady State Universe is out of question, Big Crunch or most of cyclical models also went to dust bin and we are left with varieties of Thermal Death approaches (but you must be aware that so called entropy gaps are making some havoc there - every gravitationally bound structure would face its own thermal death but whole Universe-as-we-know-it-now never).

Big Rip is a credible alternative to heat death and it is related to one yet unproven but possible property of dark energy.
It is ugly in a sense that it damages beauty of equations describing General Relativity but its beauty is that it satisfies 2nd law of Thermodynamics in most direct way (at Big Rip singularity entropy of every location in space would uniformly get to maximum possible level and hence time would cease to exist).

There are plenty of other models too.

It seems that you subscribe to models related to heat death.
If so, we are likely to enjoy shining stars maybe for trillion years but existence of dark energy still implies that within some billions of years entire observable Universe will consist only of our Galaxy or a Local Group (of galaxies) at best.
That is a foregone conclusion supported by recent observations.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow we have quarks and sub quark particles, string theory and particle string theory.

Quarks are for sure real but strings are still in domain of religion, not science.
Why?
Because their existence is beyond any hope of experimental testing.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here are proven dimensions of existence we know are there but know nothing (almost) about.

Additional dimensions are also in domain of faith now, albeit with considerable luck LHC may reveal existence of additional dimension.
Here is an interesting article dealing with these and few other interesting possibilities:
http://lpsc.in2p3.fr/ams/aurelien/aurelien/cern.pdf
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy is it that the people who know or should know the real limits to our space travel capability are so often the ones promoting it?

Actually I find it weird.
Perhaps areas of investigation available to science are really getting exhausted and now we are entering into world of fantasy...

Relentless work on string or brane theories or recent growth of faith between brightest scientists in correctness of many worlds interpretation of QM is certainly giving credence to such suspicions.
It seems that these peoples have simply surrendered their intellect and started to make unverifiable, religious, statements and pretend that these have anything to do with science.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ottom line is the idea is a silly masquerade; a distraction from real problems with real solutions, HERE ON EARTH; enough to keep us plenty busy for a few million generations.
First part about "distraction" is certainly correct albeit I have serious doubts about millions of future generations of us.

There may well be million but we are doing all the best to ensure that there will be only few more.
Lets hope, we do not succeed.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 06:08:27

I saw a physics program about 18 years ago about forces and dimensions, some of which I understood, perhaps others here are able to enlighten us further?

The scientists were utilising simple apparatus to prove a force exists outside gravitational equilibrium; for some reason which is beyond me, this would prove the existence of a 4th energy plane of existence which in turn would imply a 5th, 6th, 7th and at least 8th or 9th dimension on the energy platform of reality here on earth.

The apparatus was a completely airtight dark box with a bath of water and floating objects being computer monitored for their position in the bath. The objects would be made sure to be absolutely stilll in the center of the vessel then left for days. It was found that bodies of water pull objects towards them if the object is nearby and raised above the water. This contradicts gravitational mass being in favour of rock.

They thought it was a big deal at the time, sorry I haven't a link.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 07:47:42

We could possibly use thread drift to propel us through space.

The main point to the OP was, in my opinion, not that we need to step up space exploration, but that Hawking adds his strong voice to those who think that we have crossed the tipping point.

We each have to decide how to react to that information.

I, like Gypsy, see the ocean as my best bet, but in different ways. Others want land based doomsteads.

If you want to talk physics (metaphorically) then think of the mass of unawareness contained within our species and the trajectory of actions. Then try to predict where that momentum will drive us. Then predict a safe place.

As a wise old Chinaman once said "When SHTF everyone get stinky."
When going through hell, keep going! Churchill
Nothing is ever lost by courtesy. It is the the cheapest of pleasures, costs nothing, and conveys much. E Wiman
I know there’s no solution, so I just enjoy what’s here and I enjoy the journey G Carlin
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 08:04:38

This may be a tad off the vital topic so will segway, that unlike a doomstead or space shuttle, a yacht may simply ride the elements in a day from a city to a wilderness. It may carry the provisions to sustain inhabitants for many years; likely long enough to get beyond the bottleneck looming.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 13:33:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'I')t may carry the provisions to sustain inhabitants for many years; likely long enough to get beyond the bottleneck looming.

If the bottleneck will be climate change driven, then there is no hope of success here.

You will end up like those "smokers" from Waterworld.

PS.
In respect of additional dimensions.
I am entirely unaware of any work dealing with what you have said.
These experiments with water and gravity seem to contradict canonical physics.
Maybe these were artifacts after all (say related to minute electric charges on tested objects)?
It seems that there was no further developments in this field...

However I am aware that some considerations from theory dealing with unification of magnetism with general relativity (Kaluza - Klein theory) are calling for additional dimension.
Here is an interesting paper dealing with it:
http://www.konfluence.org/final_AIPv1103p243_1.pdf
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby jodell8964 » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 16:51:11

If mankind needs to reach out into space to obtain new resources to keep our economies running, we must do so at minimum expense..(if this is possible)... I bevieve that we are technologically challenged, in that making a round trip to Saturn in under a week, let alone bringing back a days supply of crude oil, is still something only seen in a sci-fi movie. But, purhaps there may be a dim light at the end of the tunnel. There has been scepticism for many years about an alien space ship that crashed near Roswell, New Mexico many years ago, which may be housed at Area 51. If there is any fact to this..why can't engineers examine, learn and understand the alien technology that made this craft operate. After all this alien space ship more than likely came from outside the solar system and how long do you think it took them to get here.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 17:07:07

Engineers built all the shit that got us into this mess. They are the bus drivers, not the navigators.

Come to think of it, who are the navigators?
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby jodell8964 » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 17:21:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'E')ngineers built all the shit that got us into this mess. They are the bus drivers, not the navigators.

Come to think of it, who are the navigators?


The Navigators are the Illuminati.......
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 20:32:46

Water World, like Noah's flood, alien spacecraft on earth etc., is in the realm of pure fantasy.
It will be economics which cause the bottleneck, resource based economics.
Long before AGW has flooded the Himalaya.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby Lore » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 20:42:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'W')ater World, like Noah's flood, alien spacecraft on earth etc., is in the realm of pure fantasy.
It will be economics which cause the bottleneck, resource based economics.
Long before AGW has flooded the Himalaya.


All part of the same pie. Resource depletion with a capper of AGW will push a large portion of the planet's population towards starvation and disease. No need to get your feet wet to die.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 21:50:23

Pretty much. So the real question has to be how do I make it through the bottleneck; and how do I help my kin?

Wanking on about seeding space before we completely fark this planet is absurd in the extreme.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 21:53:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'P')retty much. So the real question has to be how do I make it through the bottleneck; and how do I help my kin?

Wanking on about seeding space before we completely fark this planet is absurd in the extreme.



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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby Lore » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 22:34:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'P')retty much. So the real question has to be how do I make it through the bottleneck; and how do I help my kin?

Wanking on about seeding space before we completely fark this planet is absurd in the extreme.


As it stands right now, we're never going to get off this planet to live some sort of Trekker utopia on distant worlds. So get that out of your heads. In the future, we will be lucky enough to find just the energy necessary to keep 2% of our current technology viable while trying to obtain the necessary calories to work 16 hour days in extreme conditions for our food, clothing and shelter. That is if any of us survive at all.

The problem is the bottleneck, as you describe it, is more like a very long soda straw in years. It could likely be many generations of humans before anybody comes out on the other side. You can only prepare yourself and yours to live the best life possible, however short or long that may be. You can do things to stack the deck in your favor, but there is the very real chance that what ever preparations a person makes may just end up being ultimately futile. You have to learn to accept that too.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 20 Aug 2010, 23:39:10

Like a gamble on your life effectively; you weigh the odds, variable's, known and unknown knowns then place your bets. There is no more rational solution than a good seaworthy sailboat, well equipped with a well trained crew. To be at home anywhere, to have a foot in both camps, there is just nothing like a good sailing yacht. Not everyone's cuppa tea, but nonetheless, far and away the most logical, closest to perfect solution.
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Re: Stephen Hawking: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 21 Aug 2010, 00:49:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'A')s it stands right now, we're never going to get off this planet to live some sort of Trekker utopia on distant worlds. So get that out of your heads. ... It could likely be many generations of humans before anybody comes out on the other side.


Fact is, "many generations" is just a speck of time on the geologic timescale, or even the human evolutionary timescale. We're still a young species -- only 200,000 years.

So assuming ocean acidification or whatnot doesn't knock us down to the stone age, in general we have time on our side. Technological advancement is exponential, with the pace of change getting faster every decade. When you combine those two factors -- the very long timescale of geologic time with the ultra fast pace of tech advancement -- then I'd say it's more likely than not that we will in fact end up colonizing the solar system.

Think of colonization of the Americas. It took a good couple hundred years after 1492 for colonization to really get rolling. 1969, the year of the first moon landing, could be analogous to 1492. If I had to guess, I would pin a date of 2169 as the time when extra-terrestrial colonization reaches critical mass.

Another thing to keep in mind.. people first settled down to farming about 12,000 BC. So that's 14,000 years to go from hunter gatherers to everything we have today. So on the evolutionary timescale, we could actually suffer a total collapse back to the stone age and civilization could rise all over again and who knows, we might just get it right after five, ten, or fifty cycles of this.

Bottom line.. geologic time is VERY long. Technological progress is exponential. Now add the two together.
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