[Narz]

I saw this question posed in a blog : "What is the minimum number of people you need in order to maintain (not necessarily to extend) our current level of technological civilization?"

And thought it would be a good one to throw out here.

Here's the blog by the way.

[hillsidedigger]

That guy is lost and irrelevant to the situation confronting us.

[Narz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hillsidedigger', 'T')hat guy is lost and irrelevant to the situation confronting us.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'I') saw this question posed in a blog : "What is the minimum number of people you need in order to maintain (not necessarily to extend) our current level of technological civilization?"

And thought it would be a good one to throw out here.

Here's the blog by the way.

[Pretorian]

You are truly nuts Carlhole you know that? Multi-trillions of nano robots flying everywhere? New evolutionary paradigm? What for? So some mythic super-robo-brain will discover some mysteries of the Universe that human brain is unable to not only to discover but to understand ? By the time it will be possible not only humans will be gone, but all other creatures related by blood to us as well-- like cockroaches or E.coli.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'Y')ou are truly nuts Carlhole you know that? Multi-trillions of nano robots flying everywhere? New evolutionary paradigm? What for? So some mythic super-robo-brain will discover some mysteries of the Universe that human brain is unable to not only to discover but to understand ? By the time it will be possible not only humans will be gone, but all other creatures related by blood to us as well-- like cockroaches or E.coli.

[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'Y')ou are truly nuts Carlhole you know that? Multi-trillions of nano robots flying everywhere? New evolutionary paradigm? What for? So some mythic super-robo-brain will discover some mysteries of the Universe that human brain is unable to not only to discover but to understand ? By the time it will be possible not only humans will be gone, but all other creatures related by blood to us as well-- like cockroaches or E.coli.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'w')ell right now we have millions of made-up job titles and billions of people who do not produce ( or invent,develop, if you like) absolutely nothing. They are given imaginary jobs or sustained in some other way for the sake of stability, consumation and humanity. Why would a machine do that? Such a mega-waste of resources? This just doesnt make any sense. By the way, name me one thing that didnt exist 30, 40 years ago, and came to us as a part of this technological bonanza.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'I')t will probably emerge that fewer and fewer ordinary people will find intellectual occupations because they will be so readily out-classed by thinking machines.

[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'w')ell right now we have millions of made-up job titles and billions of people who do not produce ( or invent,develop, if you like) absolutely nothing. They are given imaginary jobs or sustained in some other way for the sake of stability, consumation and humanity. Why would a machine do that? Such a mega-waste of resources? This just doesnt make any sense. By the way, name me one thing that didnt exist 30, 40 years ago, and came to us as a part of this technological bonanza.

[Pretorian]

Sixstrings, don't worry-- unless resources will end, everyone will be provided with another made up job title doing useless work. Will it be paying a living wage-- well that depends on what you consider to be a living wage. I guess not providing some people with made-up job titles, along with legal and illegal immigration will help to degrade a bit the definition of the living wage for an average American, finding a suitable middle between what it is now (read own place to live at, new car every once in awhile, cable TV, air conditioning, fancy drugs, ability to travel and to throw away food and clothes) and what you really need to live ( read 1500 calories a day, a multivitamin pill, half a gallon of reasonably clean water and a bunk bed in some barack for 500 people or a private sleeping bag every couple of years)

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '.')..neverthless you did failed me to name one thing

[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '.')..neverthless you did failed me to name one thing

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', ' ')But if you insist-- CERN was founded in 1954. So not really. NIF--playing with lasers and making new particles-- these games were here longer than 30-40 years. Again, it is not a "thing" it is a facility for scientists to play with OLD toys.

[Pretorian]

I didnt say nothing had changed. A lot of things did, a lot, and for the better. But I do not see new "things" added for an average yokel to play with. Like radio, Tv, car, phone, computer. Name whatever and something like that did exist in some form 30-40 years ago. Kindle-give me a break, a book is a book, be it in PDF, paper, vellum or clay tablets.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '.')..like radio, Tv, car, phone, computer. Name whatever and something like that to play with...

[Tyler_JC]

1. Corrective eye surgery isn't just for rich, risk-takers anymore.
2. Robots that clean our floors (Roomba)
3. Organic LEDs.
4. Blue ray disks.
5. Nuvaring birth control.
6. Artificial liver.

Just a few minutes of Googling.

And that's another thing. "To Google". We can do that now. Instantly. All of the world's useful information (and most of its useless stuff to) is available to over a billion people with a click of a mouse.

Even twenty years ago, only a small fraction of those people had access to real time information on EVERY subject. Remember when people used to have to go to libraries to do research? Now everyone can access anything. Think for a minute how efficient information gathering has become for the average person.

As for the OP, I'd say we need at least 500-750 million people to maintain our current level of technological development.

It's also important to realize that economies of scale kick in at fairly low levels for many production processes. A paper mill doesn't need to provide paper to the entire country of France before it reaches the minimum efficient size. If we only had 500 million people, we could greatly reduce the number of paper mills with zero effect on our technological development. (just one little example)

[MarkJ]

It's amazing how much technology has changed in such a short period of time.

Back in the late 90s, we were still paying 10 to 25 cents per minute intrastate long distance charges to call residents a few miles away.

Once cellular coverage and broadband came to the region, the phone company offered unlimited calling packages in order to compete with unlimited Roadrunner digital phone packages, unlimited cellular talk/text/web packages, unlimited VOIP packages etc.

Technology also made many forms of communications, research and education available to lower income households.

Currently it's pretty common to see low income households with 2/3/4 cellular phones, multiple desktops/notebooks/netbooks, DSL, Roadrunner, VOIP phones etc.

Once free WiFi, wireless access points and wireless notebooks, netbooks and handhelds became popular, people were also able to surf for free, or share connections and costs.

This technology has provided much free, or low cost entertainment in the form of movie, music, software, game downloading, sharing, copying etc.

This technology has also given many of our poorly educated residents and their kids reading, writing, typing, multitasking and tech skills.

[Narz]

Any more answers?

[dolanbaker]

I reckon it's possible to have a population as small as 10 million.

Assuming everything remains in place, i.e. they don't have to start from scratch and the specialist knowledge is available as in the team stays together or the knowledge is passed down to a select few.

Such a world would have only one or two chip fabricaton plants to produce all the electronc components needed, other engineering plants would be available to make replacement parts for the FAB plant.

All these specialists plants would be interdependant on each other for equipment and parts, lose one and the rest will eventually fail. The same could be said for other specialists industries as well, for example pharmacey.

There would be a number of large manufacturers who would specialise in makeing PC's, Televisions etc, one or two manufacturers for each class of device. They would still need to make about 500,000 Televisions a year assuming 5 million households, one TV per house being replaced after 10 years.
Other mass produced goods be produced without any difficulty, but there would be much less variaty as like electronics the number of componant manufacturers would be limited.
With the small population numbers, Product R&D would be very limited, you would be able to get a a new replacement spare part for your 20 year old washing machine. something that's almost impossible today.