[Pops]

I'm sure you are all by now sick of hearing me say that in '04 we moved to Missouri from central CA (where the phrase "Drive to Qualify" was invented) in order to turn the "froth" into farmland. Today that area is just toast with UE at 18% (that's the MSM headline number) and home values down 60% or something stupid.

The housing market certainly hit a rough patch but has now hit bottom - maybe.

Bigger

Some doomer econimists think there may be another leg down. By the looks of this writing on the wall that might be true:



Do you think gas prices had anything to do with the cost of real estate in your area before the crash - how about as a contributing factor to the crash?

Did you do anything to change your housing before the crash, either because of peak oil or the bubble itself?

Have you done or are you planning to do anything since the crash regarding your housing? I'm thinking mostly about moving closer to where you drive but also big changes to the building itself?


Commuter Calculator
http://lenpenzo.com/blog/id977-evaluati ... it-up.html

[Maddog78]

What housing crash?
I have a house in a suburb of Vancouver. Prices up over 20% in the last 6 months.
Average price in Vancouver proper was 1 million bucks two months ago. Didn't that make the headlines?!
Last month it came in just under a million, so it turned down a bit.

I know it sounds crazy but it's true. I think we are teetering on the edge though.
Our correction is coming.
I won't get into all the details but the system is a lot different in Canada.
Nevertheless, unaffordable is unaffordable and we must be at that point in Vancouver.
Amazingly enough there are still a few bulls out there saying this isn't the top.
It's madness.

[the48thronin]

Before I ever saw the words PEAK OIL, I started looking into what was considered "homesteading" because I realized that the post war growth had created a country consuming 70% ( more or less) and a world of poverty that would be ( thanks to "leave it to Beaver" reruns) living every day in envy of the one great economy.
That situation coupled with corporate realization of the possibilities of transportation to make slave labor rates viable in the one great economy could only lead to one end for my class ( worker).

After a series of foreign ventures while I attended schools that were IMHO not completely dominated by the anti war remnants that were taking over our universities, I came home and began the search for a homestead.

I ended up in southern Alabama, bought land in a few places including the 20 acres where my family has settled in 4 homes.
My criteria for land was and still is..
1. 1/2 of all land be farm-able acres with at least 10 years ( preferably more) rest from modern farming.
2. Natural spring year around.
3. Rural with limited access by hi way and the ability to visualize further limits to access if necessary.
4. Owner financing.

Since the debacle last year I have reintroduced some small farmstead practices abandoned a few years ago when my wife started also driving in a second truck. I have also started doubling the fruit orchards, and stocking seeds while starting a new generation in the "fun" of grow your own gardening. ( They now see the need they ignored before.)

[vtsnowedin]

Paid off the mortgage and subdivided it and gave the first daughter with a fiancee her inheritance. Two more to go and I may build a small cottage planned for the old and infirm to finish up in and give the present not handicapped friendly house to one of the girls.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '8')) Paid off the mortgage and subdivided it and gave the first daughter with a fiancee her inheritance. Two more to go and I may build a small cottage planned for the old and infirm to finish up in and give the present not handicapped friendly house to one of the girls.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '[')Mary and I have also thought that the 2,000 sq ft is too much even tho we did put in a ramp for her mothers use a couple years ago. When it comes down to just Mary and I, I think a small 3 room place would be better, I simply hate to budget for that..sigh!

[?!]

I still live with my parents and am helping to pay off the mortgage since I'm innheriting it anyway. I will sell it since it is in a small town that is becoming suburbanized and am currently looking for an attractive piece of rural mountain land to start my green doomstead on. The minor stigma of living with parents beats throwing away 65% of my income on rent and utilites when that money can go to something more permanent. BTW, I think the luxuries of most housing=slavery. These 100,000+ homes are rediculous... unless it's a f*'in fortified castle/underground nuke capsule or something. If you are going to keep one in the suburbs/cities it would be best to keep it as minimal/inexpensive as possible if you are truly worried about a collapse.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')ome doomer econimists think there may be another leg down.

[davep]

I sold the house near London and bought a 10 acre doomstead in France, cash.

I've since had to spend a lot in doing the place up, as it was very cheap and in poor condition. But it belongs to me and not the banks

The only problem is that I've had to find a job over 500km away in Germany, but it pays well and has enabled me pay for the improvements to the house. Hopefully I'll be able to quit the job and do a bit of market gardening to make some cash in less than two years.

[Ayoob]

I'm pretty sure I'm fucked.

[quadzillajim]

I currently rent $1100/month but kinda hoping the housing market really crashes in Vegas and I might be able to pick up a nice house for about 20k.

[dinopello]

Just refinanced at 4.75, 30 yr fixed. Plan to pay off in 10 years, but the lower required payment will help if something happens with the job (I hope).

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('?!', ' ')These 100,000+ homes are rediculous...

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('quadzillajim', 'I') currently rent $1100/month but kinda hoping the housing market really crashes in Vegas and I might be able to pick up a nice house for about 20k.

[Pops]

Ouch!
New Home Sales collapse to Record Low in May



Makes you wonder if it was all just the stimulus programs propping up the market and it is simply going to continue falling now to where it would have been without the giveaways. That makes sense, just like the price of commodities (including oil) blasted way above what demand justified propelled by speculators, so did housing.

There is a pile of shadow inventory as well (people and institutions ready to sell but waiting on demand) so the real "months of supply" figure I'd guess is really much bigger than the graph in the opening post suggests.

I don't know if its a good time to buy yet - still a ways to go down. But if I was thinking about it, I'd sure have my eyes open. I doubt any offer is too low to be considered if the seller is desperate enough.

---
So anyone out there move closer to work or public transit?
Downsize or maybe lobby your employer for telecommuting?

[Pops]

Thanks for the link Keith. I got Here from there and found this:



Mortgage balances off 2% (based on bank reporting anyway) but values off 34%?

[Pops]

gonna be a long road back...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fanny', 'F')annie Mae (FNM/NYSE) announced today policy changes designed to encourage borrowers to work with their servicers and pursue alternatives to foreclosure. Defaulting borrowers who walk-away and had the capacity to pay or did not complete a workout alternative in good faith will be ineligible for a new Fannie Mae-backed mortgage loan for a period of seven years from the date of foreclosure. Borrowers who have extenuating circumstances may be eligible for new loan in a shorter timeframe.

...Fannie Mae will also take legal action to recoup the outstanding mortgage debt from borrowers who strategically default on their loans in jurisdictions that allow for deficiency judgments.

[ubercrap]

I left rural Missouri twice for better opportunities because, as I am from there, I cannot move there from a wealthy outside area and buy a farm. One of the times I was building up a pretty cool property, but the company I worked for wanted me to move and there was really no alternative but to sell. Yeah, I didn't buy it "cash" as some ignorant salesperson from the company who lived in a wealthy area of the country thought when I told her the price.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercrap', 'I') left rural Missouri twice for better opportunities because, as I am from there, I cannot move there from a wealthy outside area and buy a farm.

[MarkJ]

When the market bottomed in some local regions, I was buying foreclosures, tax seizures and distressed sale properties right and left.

Unfortunately, when investors, flippers, landlords and other cash buyers re-entered the market, the bidding wars drove prices out of my comfort range.

I bid 30K cash with zero contingencies for one FSBO property listed for 25K. The property sold for 70K after several investors got into a bidding war.

I also bid on dozens of auction properties that sold for more than double what they were worth from an investment perspective.

Since I buy properties for cash, I'm swamped with calls, but really haven't seen a bargain in several months.


Since our best subs are pretty busy, they're unavailable, or their prices are too high to turn a substantial profit.