[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', ' ')I don't know MQ, these comments seem to be inferring something of the sort:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')You fail to grasp that it is not in our best interest as a species to avoid a die-off.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', ' ')SSHHHH!!!! You aren't supposed to notice!! How are the regulars supposed to feel superior to newbies if you keep ruining the ending for them?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Smudger', ' ')the reality is PO will signal the end of the US era, as has happenned for the UK, France etc etc. there will be lots of unemployed, bankrupts etc but the end of civilisation it will not be

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', ' ')SSHHHH!!!! You aren't supposed to notice!! How are the regulars supposed to feel superior to newbies if you keep ruining the ending for them?

[thuja]

Wait- I know- using Praise Doom's logic, Peak Oil has had no ascertainable side effects. Thus, we shouldn't be getting into a tizzy about it. Using his logic there really is nothing to worry about.

And if we don't have to worry, then why consider what happens when the peak plateau that we are in, turns into a never ending descent in production, year after year after year. That shouldn't be a problem either- unless you are some sort of culty apocolyptic kook.

Nope, using Matt and PD's logic, you shouldn't worry your pretty little head about this...because no discernable change has occured at the very peak of production.

Oh but forget that 350% rise in oil prices in the last 5 years (20$-70$/brrl). Forget the crippling of the airline industry, the US automotive industry, the demand destruction happening in Third World countries, the inflation in prices of most industrial manufactured goods. Forget the rise in anger of a significant portion of the First World at the rising gas prices, the shift towards ethanol that has caused a subsequent leap in price of corn and thus meat.

No no- ignore all that- nothing has been going on in this plateau phase. And if nothing is going on, then you really don't have to worry about what will happen when that plateau turns into a descending line...

Lets see- four words...head in the sand

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', ' ')And if we don't have to worry, then why consider what happens when the peak plateau that we are in, turns into a never ending descent in production, year after year after year.

[azreal60]

I didn't start reading this debate after the 3rd page till now, because I had other posts to read and sleep to catch up on.

Much to my chargrin.

I must say, the Montequest-davep and to some degree Otimar debate was one of the most interesting and more importantly least ad hom filled I've seen. I have to give you kudos for that, I could actually read it for content and not for moderation.

I have to take the middle of the road here. Monte, they are right that, given the stipulations they imply, solar Can do the replacement of liquid fuels to some degree. davep and Otimar, your ignoring, well, davep mentioned it, the fact that we, as a society, Won't. Your arguing over each other to some degree. But the arguement was worth it despite that, simply for it's quality.

Praisedoom, you on the otherhand are like the court jester dancing around while the great debates go on in the senate. I have this feeling your not reservegrowthrules as pstarr implied, simply because he was never that funny. On the other hand Praisedoom, your being silly. Yes, I'm sure Some people aware of peakoil made silly predictions that wheren't all the way thought thru, and where later proven wrong by time passing. Something about predictions, they are made with certain assumptions. If one of those assumptions is wrong, it can throw off the whole prediction. The thing about assumptions though, you can to some degree predict how likely they are to be wrong. What it comes down too is this.

Your arguement is like a table. The assumptions are the legs. How strong those legs are defines how strong the table is. Some people have made silly arguments about how fast peakoil's effects are going to be seen. And by who. It's pretty evident if I lived in africa, peakoil is right now effecting me. If I live in america it is as well, but it's not yet hard enough that it hurts. In africa, they are already feeling the pain. So if you lived in Africa, you wouldn't be lamenting the lack of obvious doom about. It would be there. Here, we won't really really feel it for a few years. And MSN only informed people won't really feel it for probably 3 to 4 years. Maybe less depending. Peakoil is an event that's time scale is a bit bigger than the days to weeks that you wish for. Sometimes you just gotta wait. Personally, I'm glad for it. More time to prepare.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', ' ') Monte, they are right that, given the stipulations they imply, solar Can do the replacement of liquid fuels to some degree.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', '
')
Praisedoom, you on the otherhand are like the court jester dancing around while the great debates go on in the senate. I have this feeling your not reservegrowthrules as pstarr implied, simply because he was never that funny. On the other hand Praisedoom, your being silly.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Any species in overshoot will suffer a population crash to regain balance with it's environment. That is the way nature works.
That grasp of ecology does not equal we "deserve" to die-off.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', ' ')And what does Monte do for a living? BUILDS HOUSES. Talk about whistling past the grave.....seriously....its either be the court jester or stand around CRYING about both the hypocrisy contained within the Doomer movement or at least make some fun of it and keep my blood pressure down.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '
')
Then SAY it already Monte....large groups of us get to DIE. Being all dry and artsy fartsy about it is amusing, but come on, you can say it, large numbers of people are going to be croaking all over the place, probably in and evil ways as they shoot/stab/starve themselves, each other, their neighbors, their favorite construction workers, etc etc.

Its just really a matter of degree and timing apparently, now that most of us agree that Peak has happened, and we're just waiting around for the other shoe to drop.

Am I wrong here? Is this not what this entire website has been built for? To discuss first if Peak mattered and has happened, and now that it has at the very least happened, its all about the other shoe. If I'm wrong I'll gladly wander off to somewhere else...but I really don't think I am wrong, or even off topic in this particular case.

SOMEBODY has to find humor in all of this, nicht wahr? It IS kinda funny....Monte for the life of him just doesn't want to bring himself to say what "overshoot" really means...it means large numbers of his neighbors get to DIE. According to the Prophet Duncan...SOON. And what does Monte do for a living? BUILDS HOUSES. Talk about whistling past the grave.....seriously....its either be the court jester or stand around CRYING about both the hypocrisy contained within the Doomer movement or at least make some fun of it and keep my pressure down.

[Omnitir]

MQ on solar;
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')
They are not considered because they can't do the job. Neither can conservation or efficiency gains.

What's the job? Mitigate peak oil short-term.

Only more oil can mitigate peak oil short-term.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
As the website admin for an organization devoted to sustainable building and living, I fail to see the hypocrisy.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', ' ')Why do I think we will be okay in the long-term? Obviously I’m very pro-technology, but unlike many doomers, I think a serious case can be made for the continuing progress of science and technology, even in a declining energy environment. The historic example of this is the Great Depression and WWII, which both saw smooth sailing for science and technology.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'A')nd given that we can expect demand for solar to be beyond supply for the foreseeable future, it’s unlikely that it will stop evolving. Even in economic collapse, and in an energy starved environment (in fact perhaps because of these), there will be much incentive to invest in solar and develop the latest improvement to the design.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
As the website admin for an organization devoted to sustainable building and living, I fail to see the hypocrisy.