[aahala]

Toe, you're quite right if you were comparing the costs of solar versus
other sources, you should adjust the cost and timing of the other
source as well.

The comparison was not a subject of your earlier posts and not the
subject matter of my reply. The reply had to do with the calculation
of solar costs and your apparent failure to understand the time value
of money.

[WisJim]

Solar panels should last much longer than 20 years (my 24 year old ones are working fine, and the newer ones seem to have better materials used to seal the perimeters of the panels and the wiring , etc.). Batteries as expensive as mentioned should also last closer to 20 years than 10 years, from my experience.

And quality wind generators are even longer-lived--ours was built in the 1940s.

[The_Toecutter]

But I was using quite a pessimistic estimate. After 20 years, solar panels still produce 80% of their rated output. Some of the first panels in the 1960s made are still producing 70% of rated output, but approxamately 10% of them have failed(I don't recall the exact figure, so consider the 10% pulled out of my ass, if concerned about precise accuracy).

If everything is accounted for over 40 years, including panel degredation, panel replacement, and failures of parts(like inverters), it is quite possibile solar electricity using today's panels, kept in today's dollars, could approach the $.13/kWh level. But that would be using them long after most companies would have decomissioned and replaced the entire set.

I think $.16-.22/kWh for today's technology is more accurate given how industry would choose to run their operation. And that right there is competitive with 70s era nuclear plants. Prices for panels are rising slightly, but efficiency is also improving drastically, more than enough to bring the cost per kWh generated over their lifetime down still.

In five years, cost per kWh of solar electricity may be in the region of $.13-19/kWh. That's my best guess.

As for wind, if you try to find the cost per kWh for wind, say, over a 50 year period, it definately becomes cheaper than coal. But some generators will need to be replaced, as 30 years is about their rated lifespan(some companies and governments rate them at 20 years when doing estimates for cost per kWh, which depending on turbine, may or may not be accurate. New turbines will last 30+ years and EROI is in the region of 30-50.).