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Kunstler: "History of the Future"

A forum to either submit your own review of a book, video or audio interview, or to post reviews by others.

Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 13:24:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'P')eople who read his books do so more for finding confirmation how dumb our society is rather than seeing his writing as a handbook on solutions....


Kunstler is never going to write a "handbook on solutions" because he doesn't believe there will be a solution. Kunstler thinks BAU is over and modern society is going to slowly collapse. :)
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby Lore » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 13:27:02

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Kunstler, you magnificent bastard, I read your book!
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 13:28:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')Nothing, I personally made the decision to power down several years ago when I decided to move from North Carolina to the woods and water of Michigan. I volunteer my services now, heat less, drive less, eat less and live small. I also vote and support anyone, in and out of my community, that has the gumption to move towards a more sustainable future.


That's great Lore. I salute you and everyone who does this. At some point enough people developing these personal ethics start to represent a cultural movement. We see this in a significant sub culture of the millennial generation. As this grows the mind set that promoted excess to the point of poisoning our planet begins to lose relevancy and we can move forward no longer in relationship to it.
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 13:38:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
And the irony is that he is far more engaged and in relationship to the very society that he has so much disdain for. That is why his writing is so visceral.


That is the truth of it because nothing much has changed around him or us. As humans we all need to function with the tools and in the society at hand. Being an arcane hermit doesn't result in actionable change that can affect yourself and anyone around you.

If a rising tied floats all boats then the opposite is also true, a receding one lowers them altogether. For the result to be impactful we all must take action together. Building a coalition is never easy. Specially one that suggests sacrifice.


Sometimes an image only comes into focus when enough of the points allow you to then connect the dots. That is how we are at the moment, individual bricks or building blocks culturally speaking isolated in a sea of a dominant culture of dysfunction. But that does not mean that no change is happen. There is momentum happening in more people choosing frugality and valuing living with a small foot print. At some point this starts to bind people together as a cultural identity.

Timo mentioned what's stopping us is money. Maybe the lack of money is what is forcing a lot of people to choose frugality, out of necessity. From that necessity we are forced to rekindle a resourcefulness our grandparents knew.

Money will never enable change. As I mentioned in another thread. We evolved with constraints. We don't handle abundance well.

In these early days when frugality is still a recessive cultural gene money will only shift us back over to high consumption. There are very few that take their financial resources and put this to work toward sustainability in real meaningful ways.

We are still one in a million.
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 13:42:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'P')eople who read his books do so more for finding confirmation how dumb our society is rather than seeing his writing as a handbook on solutions....


Kunstler is never going to write a "handbook on solutions" because he doesn't believe there will be a solution. Kunstler thinks BAU is over and modern society is going to slowly collapse. :)


And so do many others. From all political spectrum's. It's not interesting any more.
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby Timo » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 14:10:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'T')imo mentioned what's stopping us is money. Maybe the lack of money is what is forcing a lot of people to choose frugality, out of necessity. From that necessity we are forced to rekindle a resourcefulness our grandparents knew.

Money will never enable change. As I mentioned in another thread. We evolved with constraints. We don't handle abundance well.

In these early days when frugality is still a recessive cultural gene money will only shift us back over to high consumption. There are very few that take their financial resources and put this to work toward sustainability in real meaningful ways.

We are still one in a million.

Actually, now that i think about it, my family has ditched several modern luxuries an conveniences precisely because of the excess and unnecessary costs involved. It is cheaper to live within your means, and to make do with less. I'm very surprised to hear myself saying this, but my life is much richer now without television than it ever was with that contraption. So, i'll modify my reply about money being the restraint keeping me from engaging in meaningful change. There are a littany of things i'd do proactively to shore up the future of the world. If i had enough money, i'd build a solar and wind-farm power plant and replace our region's outdated, earth-killing coal plant. I'd invest in fusion research. I'd buy vast regions of El Salvador for the purpose of reforestation. I'd buy 10,000 Trojans for every person in the developing world to help them offset their own population bomb, and invest in modern healthcare for the developing world, as well. And on and on and on. Money is a limiting factor in the volumes that each one of us can have in proactively affecting the planet around us. But, money is not a limiting factor in choosing to make do with less on a personal level. I can ditch a car, and save money on excess car insurance and fuel and maintenance. I can start darning my own socks like i did back in college. I can repurpose my flower garden to grow vegetables and fruits. I can build a bat house, and an owl house, and finally turn my compost heap after leaving it dormant for the past 5 years. I can't make it rain in California, but i can, and do grow grapes in my own back yard.
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 14:34:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')Move onto what?


By the looks of the postings here, just following geopolitics as sport. Orlov and Greer have kind of migrated over to that. Choose your favorite whipping boy (the west, no doubt) and flog it tirelessly, day after day, week after week, and run defense for "the enemy of my enemy", whether it be Putin, Venezeuela, ISIL, etc...
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 14:38:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'K')unstler talks far more about our society's failures than he actually does about solutions.


He used to talk about New Urbanism. He didn't come up with the movement, but he glommed onto it. But now he's basically just an entertainer, a sort of a grumpy misanthrope ala George Carlin. It's more about cynical gallows humor than accomplishing anything productive.

The opiate is the schadenfreude. Orlov plays into this as well. It's the desire that we have to point the finger away from ourselves to absolve ourselves of our own personal responsibility. It also helps us deal with a sense of powerlessness that we are afloat in the sea of BAU.
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby Pops » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 14:53:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')Time to move on?

Move onto what?
...Only tapping out the time now.

Moving on from the tired cliche of identifying all that is dysfunctional with our modern civilization


I'm feeling quite of bit of this myself. I think PO.com is becoming less a place about trying to understand depletion and figure out what to do next, and more and more just a place to bitch about the thing that enables us to sit and bitch.

I find my interest in the machinations of the oil economy seems to be losing out to the tedium of endless complaints about bakers — by people with their mouths full of cake.

.
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 16:23:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rollin', 'T')he reality is that during a fast collapse, most cities and towns would burn. A lot of forests would burn also. The resulting "nuclear winter" would make it tough for anyone In a cool to cold climate to survive at all. There might not be a lot of things to use after all the fires and chemical spills. Of course there wouldn't be many people either.

Personally, I put fast collapse probability at less than 10 percent. If collapse occurs it will be cyclical inhomogeneous and stretched out over a period of time. Those places insulated from the global economy might not notice it much at all.


Neither fast nor slow, but in between, so we can watch in horror as we sink into chaos. It appeared to happen pretty quickly in the Middle East, and it may be ongoing for quite some time. You have to wonder how much destruction is possible before we settle down to a slow decline? Probably, a LOT.
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby dinopello » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 16:49:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', ' ')more and more just a place to bitch about the thing that enables us to sit and bitch.


But, the ability and proclivity to bitch about things is primarily what sets us apart from the rest of the animal kingdom.
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby Lore » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 17:13:14

The goal should be to bitch and do something about it, rinse and repeat.

One reason for the endless bitching is peak oil is not a movement. It's a concept codified as a threat. Movements by definition campaign for action on their beliefs.

Stalin and Lenin took a concept and turned it into a revolution.
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 17:16:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', ' ')

Stalin and Lenin took a concept and turned it into a revolution.


Actually, Lenin took a concept and turned it into a revolution.

Stalin then took the revolution and turned it into a fascist counter revolution culminating in a totalitarian state. 8)
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby Pops » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 18:16:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', ' ')more and more just a place to bitch about the thing that enables us to sit and bitch.


But, the ability and proclivity to bitch about things is primarily what sets us apart from the rest of the animal kingdom.

That is indeed depressing.
I'm pretty sure I'd have never put that on my list, LOL
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby steam_cannon » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 22:08:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kunstler', '&')quot;I'm not gay and don't know anyone who is, but I'm pretty sure it (being gay) doesn't have anything to do with peak oil, plastic Christmas trees or consumerism."

It's complicated but being gay probably does have a lot to do with consumerism. This is going to take a lot of words and a long list of scientific studies to explain, but oh well, I'm going to explain this and scientific referenced are below... :P

So I'm going to jump the shark on this and pose this as a question, can being gay have anything to do with plastics and consumer products? Well first ask the question can being gay be caused by exposure to hormone altering chemicals to fetuses, the answer is yes. Can the spectrum of being gay be enhanced by hormone exposure? Based on some studies, probably yes. If the answer to those questions is yes and it probably is, well then let's explore these question further. First are synthetic hormones rampant in an industrial society? The answer to that is certainly yes. BPA for example. What is BPA, BPA is that "lovely" estrogen mimicking molecule in water bottles and cheap plastics. However the #1 source of BPA isn't water bottles, eating canned food or drinking from styrofoam cups. Those are all big culprits, but factors of ten off from what you are exposed to by simply handling receipts at the checkout line. That chalky feeling thermal paper you handle at the checkout line is literally coated in BPA and every time you handle a receipt your absorbing BPA though your skin. Summing up, synthetic hormone exposure is very common in our modern industrial society. And some people will be more sensitive to these estrogen mimicking molecules, probably more so if they had prenatal exposure affecting brain development. So I think it's ironically plausible that consumerism could increase the likelihood of feelings in the homosexual spectrum. But not just for men...

Going further, modern women in industrial societies are also exposed to estrogen mimicking molecules like BPA and in addition to that often use hormonal birth control. I'm very pro birth control, but from what I've read hormonal birth control has a very serious problem. Several studies (including the larger more recent studies that tried to disprove the original study) showed that hormonal birth control changes the mating preference of women in some interesting ways that mimic mate preference changes present during a pregnancy. The studies indicated women were less attracted to masculine features and prefer the scent of people with immune systems similar to their family instead of different immune systems. I suspect BPA exposure would have similar effects as it mimics estrogen. The social implications of that are not part of those studies though I do include an article below that briefly and delicately discusses social implications. But I'm not going to be delicate. Based on what I've read and my own opinion, I would guess hormone exposure to BPA or synthetic birth control would probably cause women to be attracted to feminized men (emo culture?) and others with more feminine features including having more interest in other females, shifting their interest spectrum. Further hormonal birth control comes with health risks so women don't usually spend their whole life on it. So I would expect that when women go on or off birth control or their BPA exposure levels shift, that their gut feeling for mating preference would also shift potentially causing many broken relationships as that "natural chemistry" is interrupted or no longer there.

My own opinion, on a society level the effects from estrogen and estrogen mimicking chemicals would play out with a larger portion of the population shifted into the gay/lesbian spectrum as well as very high rates of broken long term relationships.

And I'm not saying being gay/lesbian/whatever is wrong, I'm just saying the chemicals people are commonly exposed to in our current environment unfortunately may be shaping sexual culture, just as tetraethyl lead probably boosted criminal culture in the US until that was removed.

References:

BPA May Lower Men's Testosterone, Study Finds (Huffington Post 2013)
"... Phthalates are chemicals used to soften plastics..." "...Because testosterone produces the masculine brain, researchers are concerned that fetal exposure to anti-androgens such as phthalates ... has the potential to alter masculine brain development, said lead author Shanna H. Swan, Ph.D., professor of Obstetrics and Gynecology, director of the URMC Center for Reproductive Epidemiology, and an expert in phthalates."

bisphenol A came into use as a synthetic estrogen in the 1930s (Scientific American 2008)

Cash Register Receipts May Be A Source Of BPA, Study Suggests (Forbes 2014)

Receipts May Expose Us to High Levels of BPA (Discover Magazine 2014)

Researchers advise pregnant women to limit exposure to receipts and plastic (Canada.com 2015)
“What we show is that BPA affects the timing of when neurons are born, and that presumably alters circuitry in the brain, so you get this slightly different wiring,”

Does the Pill Shape Your Mate Choice and Satisfaction? (Psychology Today 2013)
"if hormone levels influence mate choice, and hormonal contraception changes these levels, what happens when a woman enters a relationship and then changes her use of hormonal contraception? (or bpa exposure?)... So the answer is yes: if you created your mate preference at one hormone level, found a mate, and then switched your hormone level, you may also have switched your mate preference and so feel more relationship jealousy than a woman who was on or off the pill the whole time."

The Pill May Alter Sex Partner Preferences (Live Science 2009)

HOMOSEXUAL STUDY CITES HORMONE LINK (nytimes.com 1984)
"However, in the homosexual men studied, an intermediate response pattern was observed. Following an initial decline in LH, there was a rise to a level about 35 percent higher than baseline. The 35 percent increase occurred in 9 of the 14 exclusively homosexual men studied, but in none of the 17 exclusively heterosexual men given the same treatment."

What's interesting about that last study and similar studies are that they suggest that prenatal exposure is the main factor, but continued reaction to hormone exposure in adult life could also play out in a spectrum of responses, so I would suspect that continued exposure later in life may to chemicals like BPA could have an enhancing effect and cutting off exposure might have a limiting effect. So going back to the article, is it plausible that a person might have less homosexual inclinations due to a reduction in exposure to synthetic hormones? Sure, I find that plausible. So does being gay have anything to do with consumerism, well if it's a consumer society with Plastics (Phthalates and BPA) and or other synthetic hormones, then the answer is yes.

Not that anyone else is going to read though those articles and I'm probably going to get called a homo hater by someone for even talking about these chemical exposure problems. But this is an oil discussion forum and I think our oil based plastics could very well be influencing society and are definitely proven to be a many faceted danger such as to growing fetuses.
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby Pops » Tue 21 Apr 2015, 07:43:00

Thanks for that Steam.
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby Timo » Tue 21 Apr 2015, 09:47:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'T')he goal should be to bitch and do something about it, rinse and repeat.

One reason for the endless bitching is peak oil is not a movement. It's a concept codified as a threat. Movements by definition campaign for action on their beliefs.

Stalin and Lenin took a concept and turned it into a revolution.

Are you making a suggestion with that statement, Lore?
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby efarmer » Tue 21 Apr 2015, 11:39:59

Jim is a writer, and he found an audience, and he caters to it, which is how this career works. He has an opinion, and it changes over time a bit, but it is consistent. I never expect him to layout the solution to the world's issues. I don't expect to come here to PO and find the solution to oil dependence either. Pops hit his latest work with "Pop's sickle" instead of a thumbs up.
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby Loki » Wed 22 Apr 2015, 00:37:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', 'J')im is a writer, and he found an audience, and he caters to it, which is how this career works. He has an opinion, and it changes over time a bit, but it is consistent. I never expect him to layout the solution to the world's issues. I don't expect to come here to PO and find the solution to oil dependence either.

Yeah, pretty much this. Well said. Kunstler sees himself as a modern day H.L. Mencken. Works for some, not for others.

If Ibon et al. actually bothered to read/listen to his stuff, they'd know Kunstler has offered plenty of "solutions" (i.e., adaptations to our predicament), from structural changes like new urbanism to more personal approaches like suggesting young adults go into organic farming. That's not his focus, but it's there if you care to read it. It's pretty obvious that they haven't bothered to read his stuff, though. Much like Pops writing a review of a book he didn't read LOL

But yes, he's never offered a comprehensive band-aid to solve all our problems. If that's what folk need, they're in for a rude awakening. Doesn't exist.
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Re: Kunstler: "History of the Future"

Unread postby Loki » Wed 22 Apr 2015, 00:57:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'K')unstler is a good read for the adolescent, still dependent on "daddy and mommy" BAU but not yet mature enough to leave the relationship behind and follow your own world view.

At the root of obsessing over the decline of modern civilization is this same adolescence. One is not yet rooted in creating an alternative value system or culture and so must waste all ones time obsessing on how "mommy and daddy" civilization is all fxxcked up..

You start drifting away from obsessing on this topic when you grow up. You accept the dysfunction and move on to build what ever creative life you can within the limits and in spite of our collective retardation.

To endlessly dissect all the many facets of the dysfunction is immature. Not only that, it is also becoming a tired cliche. What was perhaps cutting edge 10 years ago is becoming rather worn and boring and scripted and predictable as a theme.

Time to move on?

I'm having a real hard time squaring this post with your thousands of other posts droning on and on and on about the "overshoot predator."
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