PeakOil is You
KSA Stops Development
Re: KSA Stops Development
by rockdoc123 » Fri 25 Nov 2011, 12:33:22
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')oes it mean Ghawar is near collapse?
this whole idea of a Ghawar "collapse" came largely out a view portrayed in Twilight in the Desert that the water production would eventually overwhelm oil in a rapid unpredictable fashion. The MRC wells along with the SMART completions and the ability to use expandable liners to intervene means that the water could be controlled. If you actually read through the various SPE publications the issue with premature water production in Ghawar was to due to fractures. Wells that intersected fracture swarms had early water production (referred to as water coning). The new technology coupled with 4D seismic and what is undoubtedly the worlds largest reservoir simulation model allows them to avoid the coning issue. Of course the periferal water flood will continue to encroach, but it will be predictable (a reason for having 4D seismic coupled with simulations). Parts of Ghawar (Ain Dur) are at a high recovery factor already but the detailed laboratory work suggests they can expect a bit over 70% total recovery (I think Ain Dur is up close to 60 now). Other parts of Ghawar (eg: Haradh) have lower recovery at this point so will have a longer life.
So the Readers Digest version is Ghawar isn't going to suddenly collapse tomorrow. It is on decline and will continue that way but one shouldn't expect that you would go from several millions of barrels a day production to zero as that isn't supported by the information available in the SPE reports. Remember that many fields in the world are produced at water cuts as high as 90% and Ghawar currently is still around 40% by all accounts.
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Re: KSA Stops Development
by radon » Fri 25 Nov 2011, 17:22:24
Things that come to mind:
1. If Saudi Arabia's production is on the plateau stage and may not be increased, than its recoverable oil reserves should be comparable to Russia's, because Russia's production is also on the plateau stage at this very moment. Indeed, entering the plateau stage means being at the Hubbert's peak on the graph. The recoverable reserves is the area under the Hubbert's curve on the graph (or, maths-speaking, the integral of the Hubbert's function over time - S H(t)dt). SA's and Russia's coinciding Hubbert peaks means that their Hubbert curves are broadly equivalent, and this means that the areas under their Hubbert curves are broadly equal, and this means that their recoverable reserves are broadly of the same size. (Edit: of course, all this bearing in mind that SA's and Russia's current, "peak", oil production rates are broadly equal at around 10 mbd).
This in turn implies that SA's recoverable reserves are a third of what they have declared. Is this realistic?..
2. Their population is around 27 mln now, and was around 20 mln back at the time of the 1998 oil glut. Growing fast, requiring substantial social spending. It might happen that for purely economic reasons they cannot afford oil gluts/cheap oil any more.
3. SA may actually be taking a responsible stance, and seeks to ensure that capital intensive unconventional oil projects do not go bust due to the oil price falling below their break even point (like $80/bbl cost of production).
Maybe some combination of the above.
1. If Saudi Arabia's production is on the plateau stage and may not be increased, than its recoverable oil reserves should be comparable to Russia's, because Russia's production is also on the plateau stage at this very moment. Indeed, entering the plateau stage means being at the Hubbert's peak on the graph. The recoverable reserves is the area under the Hubbert's curve on the graph (or, maths-speaking, the integral of the Hubbert's function over time - S H(t)dt). SA's and Russia's coinciding Hubbert peaks means that their Hubbert curves are broadly equivalent, and this means that the areas under their Hubbert curves are broadly equal, and this means that their recoverable reserves are broadly of the same size. (Edit: of course, all this bearing in mind that SA's and Russia's current, "peak", oil production rates are broadly equal at around 10 mbd).
This in turn implies that SA's recoverable reserves are a third of what they have declared. Is this realistic?..
2. Their population is around 27 mln now, and was around 20 mln back at the time of the 1998 oil glut. Growing fast, requiring substantial social spending. It might happen that for purely economic reasons they cannot afford oil gluts/cheap oil any more.
3. SA may actually be taking a responsible stance, and seeks to ensure that capital intensive unconventional oil projects do not go bust due to the oil price falling below their break even point (like $80/bbl cost of production).
Maybe some combination of the above.
- radon
Re: KSA Stops Development
by vtsnowedin » Sat 26 Nov 2011, 14:24:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon', 'T')hings that come to mind:
1. If Saudi Arabia's production is on the plateau stage and may not be increased, than its recoverable oil reserves should be comparable to Russia's, because Russia's production is also on the plateau stage at this very moment. Indeed, entering the plateau stage means being at the Hubbert's peak on the graph. The recoverable reserves is the area under the Hubbert's curve on the graph (or, maths-speaking, the integral of the Hubbert's function over time - S H(t)dt). SA's and Russia's coinciding Hubbert peaks means that their Hubbert curves are broadly equivalent, and this means that the areas under their Hubbert curves are broadly equal, and this means that their recoverable reserves are broadly of the same size. (Edit: of course, all this bearing in mind that SA's and Russia's current, "peak", oil production rates are broadly equal at around 10 mbd).
This in turn implies that SA's recoverable reserves are a third of what they have declared. Is this realistic?..
2. Their population is around 27 mln now, and was around 20 mln back at the time of the 1998 oil glut. Growing fast, requiring substantial social spending. It might happen that for purely economic reasons they cannot afford oil gluts/cheap oil any more.
3. SA may actually be taking a responsible stance, and seeks to ensure that capital intensive unconventional oil projects do not go bust due to the oil price falling below their break even point (like $80/bbl cost of production).
Maybe some combination of the above.
1. If Saudi Arabia's production is on the plateau stage and may not be increased, than its recoverable oil reserves should be comparable to Russia's, because Russia's production is also on the plateau stage at this very moment. Indeed, entering the plateau stage means being at the Hubbert's peak on the graph. The recoverable reserves is the area under the Hubbert's curve on the graph (or, maths-speaking, the integral of the Hubbert's function over time - S H(t)dt). SA's and Russia's coinciding Hubbert peaks means that their Hubbert curves are broadly equivalent, and this means that the areas under their Hubbert curves are broadly equal, and this means that their recoverable reserves are broadly of the same size. (Edit: of course, all this bearing in mind that SA's and Russia's current, "peak", oil production rates are broadly equal at around 10 mbd).
This in turn implies that SA's recoverable reserves are a third of what they have declared. Is this realistic?..
2. Their population is around 27 mln now, and was around 20 mln back at the time of the 1998 oil glut. Growing fast, requiring substantial social spending. It might happen that for purely economic reasons they cannot afford oil gluts/cheap oil any more.
3. SA may actually be taking a responsible stance, and seeks to ensure that capital intensive unconventional oil projects do not go bust due to the oil price falling below their break even point (like $80/bbl cost of production).
Maybe some combination of the above.
I'm not an oilfield geek so may be off the mark here but I doubt that you can conclude that Russia's reserves are equal to KSA's just due to current production matching. Russia's reserves are spread over a much larger area and production is limited by corruption and incompetency so current production may have little correlation to recoverable reserves. KSA on the other hand has a concentrated source where the best available technology has been applied for decades. I expect KSA to produce a steady flow for as long as physically possible and then a very steep decline where Russia will or may steadily increase recovery rates as reforms and new technologies are brought to bare.
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