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Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby FireJack » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 13:12:08

I posted on the Rage 3d forums about the book "The Second Great Depression: Starting 2007, Ending 2020" by Warren Brussee and am scared by the responses I got.

My original post:
"I didn't make the title it's from the book : http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/159...Fencoding=UTF8

It's something that has concerned me for a while espeically as skyrocketing energy prices seem set to exasterbate the problem. I don't think this guy says anything surprising with skyrocketing consumer and government debt with the average saving rate being negative. I wonder if most people are aware of the great hardships they are about to face.

There is a interview with the author:http://financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Brussee.html"

First 3 posts wern't serious and the 4th guy agreed. The 5th post though was this:

"I don't know if there will be another great depression in the US. If there was, the world would join us in it, since the US is 1/5 of the Earth's economy. All the major nations sell things to us and if we cannot buy them, their economies tank also.

Personally, I think we have placed our nation into a holding pattern, to give the rest of the world time to catch up. Most of the world cannot afford to buy US products. As their economies ramp up, their people become wealthier. As they become wealthier, they can afford more of our products.

That is my crystal ball gazing prophecy."

The next guy agrees with him. I thought of arguing but I tried before and its useless, these people want to live in la la land. This puts me another step forward to making a hidden shelter and stocking it full of food and hiding there until idiots like that either die of confront reality.
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby UIUCstudent01 » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 15:56:18

"All the major nations sell things to us and if we cannot buy them, their economies tank also."

People just don't understand that the United States isn't exactly the center of the world anymore. There is a rising middle-class everywhere that can take up the slack. (Including China, but it's everywhere really.)
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby NeoPeasant » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 16:24:30

I don't try to figure out complex monetary policy arguments.
I think it is sufficient to understand that the balance between numbers of people and quantities of energy, food, and other stuff will change in such a way as to quickly make most of us dramatically less materially well off.

The best advice to prepare for peak oil is to prepare yourself for a life that is worth living even while you deal with poverty and material scarcity. Study afluenza and voluntary simplicity.
The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby Peak_Plus » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 17:18:35

The world is about to fall apart very soon.

Does it help any of your posters to know that?

Has it helped you? I knew about 10 years ago that we have about 10 more good years (its all in the demographics), but have not been able to do a single stupid thing about it. As individuals, we are mostly powerless.

Better to be blissfully ignorant, don't you think?
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
T.S. Eliot
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby americandream » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 17:18:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', 'T')he world is about to fall apart very soon.

Does it help any of your posters to know that?

Has it helped you? I knew about 10 years ago that we have about 10 more good years (its all in the demographics), but have not been able to do a single stupid thing about it. As individuals, we are mostly powerless.

Better to be blissfully ignorant, don't you think?


Thats where I disagree...you see unlike you, I took the red pill.lol.....
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby rogerhb » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 18:26:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')ersonally, I think we have placed our nation into a holding pattern, to give the rest of the world time to catch up. Most of the world cannot afford to buy US products. As their economies ramp up, their people become wealthier. As they become wealthier, they can afford more of our products.


And what mystical products are these that the rest of the world wants to buy from the US? We get some food cheap because US farmers are subsidised. What else would we want from the US? All gee-whizz technologyl whiteware and clothing is made in abroad with cheaper labour and the rest of the world detests American made cars.

So, pray tell, what is it we are yearning to buy from the US?

Unless of course he means armaments.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby TheTurtle » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 18:40:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'T')he best advice to prepare for peak oil is to prepare yourself for a life that is worth living even while you deal with poverty and material scarcity. Study afluenza and voluntary simplicity.


Very good advice, NeoPeasant! :) This is the point I too seem to have reached. I find myself reading Gandhi lately.
“Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.” (Ted Perry)
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby RonMN » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 19:28:31

Voluntary simplicity...I'm good with that! I can turn down the heat & wear an extra sweatshirt! I can carpool! I can......
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes.
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby JoeCoal » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 23:50:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'V')oluntary simplicity...I'm good with that! I can turn down the heat & wear an extra sweatshirt! I can carpool! I can......


I can turn off the compu+++NO CARRIER+++
Good night, and good luck...
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby DantesPeak » Mon 20 Mar 2006, 00:25:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', 'T')he world is about to fall apart very soon.

Does it help any of your posters to know that?

Has it helped you? I knew about 10 years ago that we have about 10 more good years (its all in the demographics), but have not been able to do a single stupid thing about it. As individuals, we are mostly powerless.

Better to be blissfully ignorant, don't you think?


I was lucky enough to study in 1974, 32 years ago, under someone who was very familiar with the concepts spelled out in the book "Limits to Growth". Natural resource shortages, global warming, etc., were themes that would conspire to limit economic growth - and eventually cause a population crash in the 21st century.

Even so, it still seems we individual humans are mostly powerless to do much to stop what will happen. I'm just hope we will be able to make the transistion a little smoother.

And yes, a downturn in total energy use would be equal to a downturn in the economy. The downturn will fall unevenly across the world and within countries.
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby grabby » Mon 20 Mar 2006, 03:01:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '
')
So, pray tell, what is it we are yearning to buy from the US?

Unless of course he means armaments.


How about 8x11 homeboy inkjet printed digital pictures of teenagers with purple hair and tongue studs who cannot make change at a drive through restaurant looking alert in T-shirts that say "up yours"?

That would be a commodity evey one would fight for.

I can't think of anything interesting we could sell, all the good stuff is made in China.
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby Peak_Plus » Mon 20 Mar 2006, 03:54:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', 'T')he world is about to fall apart very soon.

Does it help any of your posters to know that?

Has it helped you? I knew about 10 years ago that we have about 10 more good years (its all in the demographics), but have not been able to do a single stupid thing about it. As individuals, we are mostly powerless.

Better to be blissfully ignorant, don't you think?


I was lucky enough to study in 1974, 32 years ago, under someone who was very familiar with the concepts spelled out in the book "Limits to Growth". Natural resource shortages, global warming, etc., were themes that would conspire to limit economic growth - and eventually cause a population crash in the 21st century.

Even so, it still seems we individual humans are mostly powerless to do much to stop what will happen. I'm just hope we will be able to make the transistion a little smoother.

And yes, a downturn in total energy use would be equal to a downturn in the economy. The downturn will fall unevenly across the world and within countries.

Ok, I'm not saying that the individual is powerless. I knew around 1980 that we would eventually start running out of oil. I think most everybody did. I did not choose my carreer accordingly and I would not have been better off if I had. (It's surely different today for someone who is in college, for instance.) I knew we would be having a widespread economic crisis about 2010 - but what to do? Peak Oil was not the primary question and will not be til about 10-15 years after Peak.

What to do in the suburbs with wife and kids and a good job (which I could possibly loose in 10 years time)? More than window dressing is probably not possible. Already got rid of the car. But I could only do that because the wife plays along. Also don't have a cell phone (50% out of principle), but is that possitive for PO?

I think most of us do not realize exactly how trapped we are in our own situations. Radius of influence is very very very small...
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
T.S. Eliot
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby grabby » Mon 20 Mar 2006, 09:42:05

It used to be when a lady was pregnant, the husband would pace in the waiting room until the doctor would anounce wether it was a boy or a girl.
This is different now.

Now we have smiling little girls on cell phones, with their boyfriends "not married" allowed IN THE DELIVERY ROOM and the parents (mother and father) waiting outside on the cell phone informing the girls high school friends how the delivery is going. and watching the other babies from this 14 year old this time girl.

The majorityare single now, and unmarried and society is paying for all of it.

We cannot afford to have more than two kids, but these ILLEGAL aliens can have as many as they want cause the more they have the more benefits they get.

Something is wong with our society, I must say, it cannot support every baby born.

All of these have food coupons and free medical.

sad out of control condition cannot be continued, something will give.

Now, through the law passed by Bill clinton before he left office, the HIPPA privacy law, no one is allowed to access any medical records to see how many of these are teen mothers and pregnancies it is illegal to share these medical records, therefore these will neveer be discovered or brought to light. But the nurses working in OB know.

and it is illegal for them to talk about it.

it is all hidden by law.

and the situation is bad.
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby Peak_Plus » Mon 20 Mar 2006, 10:00:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', '
')We cannot afford to have more than two kids, but these ILLEGAL aliens can have as many as they want cause the more they have the more benefits they get.

Something is wong with our society, I must say, it cannot support every baby born.

All of these have food coupons and free medical.

sad out of control condition cannot be continued, something will give.

???
Do you really think the problem has anything to do with poor or ILLEGALS having (too many) children?
Do you really thing that the average Joe or you yourself can only afford two children?
My bet is that more than two children (or children at all!) would ruin your lifestyle. Maybe more than two don't fit in the SUV, for instance. An occassional computer and a college education (fully paid from Hotel Mom) for each kid can get horribly expensive!

It has to do with LIFESTYLE!!!!

The statistic just came in that Germany has the lowest birth rate in Europe. 1.3 (replacement is just over 2.0). Now, imagine taking away the foreigners, who at least in the first generation or two have more than the indigenous population. Is that sustanable???? (You probably by now see that I think not).

It is thanks to the foreigners in the US which make the US the only western country with a positive birthrate (2.06, the last time I checked). Isn't it good to know that your tax money is going to good use?
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
T.S. Eliot
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby grabby » Mon 20 Mar 2006, 10:09:24

I believe peak oil is about unsustainable population, and we do not want a positive birth rate if they are not helping us pay taxes.

In other words, we should KEEP THE LAW

When a law says something is ILLEGAL we should not DO THAT/
Novel Idea eh?
It is pretty sad when the GOVERNMENT is SUPPORTING ILLEGAL ACTIVITY.

Whom shall we sue?
Last edited by grabby on Mon 20 Mar 2006, 10:50:36, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby Peak_Plus » Mon 20 Mar 2006, 10:26:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', 'I') believe peak oil is about <b>unsustainable population</b>, and No, I am not hapy about my taxes almost 50% percent of my income when there are illegals with 4-5 children living off my taxes, sorry.
...

You see, I don't think that Peak Oil is necessarily a question of unsustainable population. It is a question of <b>UNSUSTAINABLE LIFESTYLE</b> The dysfuntional society that you are talking about is all part of that.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', 'B')ut when did the government ever really care about its citicens? As long as they get their taxes.

What we need is a systems change. What PO will probably affect is a systems change - whether we like how the new system is going to look OR NOT.
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
T.S. Eliot
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby savethehumans » Mon 20 Mar 2006, 10:56:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he world is about to fall apart very soon.

Does it help any of your posters to know that?

Has it helped you? I knew about 10 years ago that we have about 10 more good years (its all in the demographics), but have not been able to do a single stupid thing about it. As individuals, we are mostly powerless.

Better to be blissfully ignorant, don't you think?

No. I have been, am, and will continue to believe that it is better to know than to not know. If nothing else, that gives my psyche a slight edge. No, not because I could do much to prepare. I guess it's just cuz knowing ahead of time IS a kind of preparation.

Kind of like wiping out on a big wave, rather than having a tsunami fall on top of you. Better chance of getting through a wipeout!
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby grabby » Mon 20 Mar 2006, 10:59:57

The best thing about post peak oil, is that I probably won't have to pay half my income in taxes.

I am looking forward to that aspect ( attitude, condition, expression, facet ) viewpoint of post peak oil anyway.

People will have to learn to be responsible *(answerable, at fault, chargeable, constrained, culpable, duty-bound, engaged, in charge, in control, incumbent, liable, obligated, to blame) or they will not survive.

There is going to be a very steep learning curve for those who will survive.

The wild west was uncivilized, and the law of the west was developed, when people became law abiding citicens, they did well. I foresee a lot of lynchings for a while.
Last edited by grabby on Mon 20 Mar 2006, 11:15:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby Peak_Plus » Mon 20 Mar 2006, 11:10:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('savethehumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he world is about to fall apart very soon.

Does it help any of your posters to know that?

Has it helped you? I knew about 10 years ago that we have about 10 more good years (its all in the demographics), but have not been able to do a single stupid thing about it. As individuals, we are mostly powerless.

Better to be blissfully ignorant, don't you think?

No. I have been, am, and will continue to believe that it is better to know than to not know. If nothing else, that gives my psyche a slight edge. No, not because I could do much to prepare. I guess it's just cuz knowing ahead of time IS a kind of preparation.

Kind of like wiping out on a big wave, rather than having a tsunami fall on top of you. Better chance of getting through a wipeout!

:-)
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a wimper!
T.S. Eliot
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Re: Is this what most people think is going to happen?

Postby AmericanEmpire » Mon 20 Mar 2006, 21:48:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o. I have been, am, and will continue to believe that it is better to know than to not know.


Definitely. While I haven't been able to do much in the way of preparation I'm glad that I know. It'll be a little less of a shock when everything goes to shit than someone who is completely ignorant about the issue.

Its better to know the real deal and mentally prepare yourself now for a life of poverty than to think you actually have a lifetime of material comfort ahead of you like most the sheep out there are shooting for.

Most of the people out there in la la land are powering up not powering down, folks. One of my neighbors in the apartment building I live in recently bought one of those huge new plasma screen TV's. Yep, thats sure preparing for a life of less energy isn't it? :lol:

People like that are gonna be pissed off when the've spent some much on all these new toys and can't use them anymore.
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