[Munqi]

What would be the impact on rest of the world and especially Europe if the american economy were to crash?

[drgoodword]

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'W')hat would be the impact on rest of the world and especially Europe if the american economy were to crash?

[Ludi]

Worldwide depression. See "the Great Depression" for historical example.

[Munqi]

When this happens how long do you think it will take before companies start going bankcrupt in Europe?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'W')hen this happens how long do you think it will take before companies start going bankcrupt in Europe?

[Kingcoal]

Instead of expecting to wake up some day and hear that the economy has officially crashed (which would never be announced officially, by the way), look at it all like an extreme slow motion movie of an explosion played in reverse.

The US economy is crashing - in slow motion. It's way to big to suddenly crash, like some smaller countries. Rather, it is slowly imploding. The reason why it is happening in slow motion is that the US economy is everyone else's problem. Mr. Bill likes to use the expression; "our dollar, your problem," and that about sums it up. Most of the industrialized world profits in some way or another on the US economy and they don't want those markets go away. IMO, the US has done an excellent job of making it's economy everyone elses problem. Like the adage about owing the bank a billion and the bank having a problem, the world economy will have a big problem as Americans quit borrowing and buying.

It's all necessary, however. Conservation of resources will occur no other way.

[Micki]

I disagree with the whole world crashing scenario.
Take one example. China. When they decide to float Yuan it will strengthen multifold against US$. This will over night result in imports of all raw materials, energy etc. becoming much MUCH cheaper to them. They have 1.3Billion people who suddenly would get stronger purchasing power. They are set to become the new consumer nation.

This is obviously the reason why for instance Jim Rogers is telling his kids to learn Mandarin.

[Fishman]

A billion people starve. One of the few breadbaskets of the world, the greatest source of humanitarian aid, licks its wounds and stays home to take care of its own. War breaks out in several world sites, the mean old "world policeman" sits in his office and heals. Again, as in the past, the world calls out for us, but we can't respond.

[vilemerchant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'T')his will over night result in imports of all raw materials, energy etc. becoming much MUCH cheaper to them.

[BigTex]

The price of oil would fall along with consumption and peak oil and its effects would be mitigated.

Sort of like a "treatment is worse than the illness" scenario.

[hope_full]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') billion people starve. One of the few breadbaskets of the world, the greatest source of humanitarian aid, licks its wounds and stays home to take care of its own. War breaks out in several world sites, the mean old "world policeman" sits in his office and heals. Again, as in the past, the world calls out for us, but we can't respond.

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vilemerchant', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'T')his will over night result in imports of all raw materials, energy etc. becoming much MUCH cheaper to them.

[mmasters]

A few years ago the USA crashing would have set the whole world into a crash. A crash today would send the world into a depression. A crash a year or two from now will probably send the world into a recession/depression depending on where you are. When/If it happens you can bet the rest of the world will find other ways to make ends meet.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'W')hat would be the impact on rest of the world and especially Europe if the american economy were to crash?

[GeneralGreen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hope_full', '
')
I still have hope that the US can support its 300 million residents in some fashion *if* we stop burning our food in the gas tank and *if* we stop shipping it overseas. And another thing - the US population growth is speeding toward ZPG. It's the OTHER guys (and girls) in the rest of the world that are procreating like mad.

[Munqi]

Now uh.... this might be a little dumb question but i have to ask.



Is this it? Will things ever get better once this happens or do you think we will see temporary improvements before things start going downhill?

If not, then.... wouldnt that mean that this is the fast crash that people talk about here? Or am i mixing something here?

[dorlomin]

Life is always vastly more complex and unexpected than almost anyone imagines. The system is not static, if there is a severe crash in the stock market and a series of sympathetic bankruptcies running through the global financial system due to outstanding CDS's and other interconectedness... the following morning when the world looked at itself it would have just short of half of the oil we will ever consume left, huge factories and an infrastructure that can continue to support billions of people for decades to come.

The easy imaginitive solution is Collapse----> Mad Max. That is one credible if in my opinion low probability outcome. The most likely outcome of a severe economic crisis from the fiancial sector would be (in my opinion) a rapid return to the thirties, chaos mixed with people trying to rebuild order, New Deals and National Socialism. Make work programs and make war plans. Protectionism and populism would dominate the politics of the era.

Out of the panic the nations of the world would largely rebuild along socialist lines. Work for all, just back breaking building of new railways and farms wheather you want to or not.

Id guess in these circumstances if you can grow your own food and make enough money from selling food or services you would not need to be handed a shovel to earn your bread.

History has many suprises for yet. I just have a rather uncomfortable feeling none of them are going to be overly pleasant.

[ROCKMAN]

dorlomin,

I agree with your characterzation of a possible future especially the complexity of a system that can't really be predicted. The world survived the global depression brought on the the late 70's oil spike. In fact, the oil price collapse of the mid 80's led to a great economic boom here. But we weren't knocking on PO's door in 1986 either. For me the future hinges on the race between demand destruction vs. PO production decline rate. And I don't think anyone can offer a credible expectation...just to many "what ifs".

[Snowrunner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'W')hat would be the impact on rest of the world and especially Europe if the american economy were to crash?