[Pops]

Yeah, and on the next morning the sun will come up and the doomers left will nail a message on the Posting Tree,
"See!"

And the Cornies left will scribble,
"What? Nothing happened and we're recovering from it already!"

Doomers, "Just wait!"

Cornies, "So you've said!








And all will be right with PO.com

LOL!

[vision-master]

Pops, you feeling ok today?

[SeaGypsy]

Pops is right, there is no way to know what's coming really.

We have stiil not turned the corner in terms of honesty about our collective resource situation coming from any important government decisions. The closest to it are all in Northern Europe, particularly Britain, but even Britain is endlessly touting 'return to growth' mandatory doctrine.

When this happens: Internationally governments and media are forced to admit forthwith: There will be no 'return to growth' and that 'The entire framework of our national and international economiess needs urgent and utter revision in light of scientific and natural facts about limits to growth of human society on this planet. Then we will be in a new era. Until then we are watching a train wreck.

[Heineken]

Those are fine comments, Gypsy.

There is still tremendous, coordinated denial. Much of it is staged by PR people for corporations and politicians, of course, but it does the same damage as---maybe even worse than---the more natural spontaneous human denial.

Large numbers of Americans still believe that high gasoline prices are entirely due to "speculators," "liberals," and "environmentalists." They believe that, if only they could be cut down to size, rivers of oil would start to flow right here at home.

Same thing for global warming---it's a "conspiracy."

I agree that the situation is hopeless as long as this continues. And, I think it will continue until it's too late. (It's already too late anyway.)

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'W')e're still on that bumpy plateau and hopefully it will continue for several more years

[Heineken]

Could be, Plant. The jury's still out, isn't it.

My beliefs are flexible.

The idea I'm playing with is that civilization won't suddenly collapse during this plateau phase, which I think we're in. That's the notion I tend to object to.

[Mesuge]

Civilization collapse?
Well that's such a broad brush attempt..

Do I believe that the forthcomming power down will affect, change (and destroy) many facets of our todays societal normals? Yes, definately.
However, does it mean that people like Musk with in house >80% product value high tech manufacturing strategy won't be able to continue with some progress space-defense cargo/EVs for rich etc. (enabled via gov./plutocrat du jour paid contracts)? Probably, NO prob for him, at least in the mid term post plateau-peak. Do I believe many regions in the world, incl. former 1st world/North countries will turn into gloves off brutal dictatorships BEFORE 2020, Yes. Overnight massive die-off probably not, accelerated havoc in demographic trends, definately yes.

Can we expect literacy levels of today in say around 2100, most probably not. Are there going to be machines operated by humans at that time though? Most probably "some" dirt smoke werks will still churn on.

[SeaGypsy]

I see a generally more ruthless world emerging right now, more brutal, less caring.

To my mind the response to famine in NE Africa now is case in point, as is overall response to massive social unrest/ violent crackdowns on protesters/ silenced/ filtered media/ internet shutdowns.
I can't remember any noteworthy protester shootings happening since Appartheid was fighting to the death in SA/ about 30 years ago. 2011 this became commonplace in the ME with hundreds, possibly thousands of non-violent protesters murdered by their governments.

I am old enough to well remember the responses to previous famines and atrocities going back to the 1970's.
Reaction now is most certainely dulled, when compared to only a decade or 2 ago. Following this pattern, put together with the gaming/ web based relationships of the youth generation, we have a scenario emerging which is more than a little scary.

Putting the real current resource situation together with the calousing of society as a whole, computerized relationships and warfare tech, the endless fabrication of reality by our media and governments; does not bode well for anyone expecting to just go with the flow and end up in a nice place.

The next period will I believe, be the Zenith of the Individual. Collectives will again retract, focusing around actual people in actual places, rather than the illusion of society we have now with it's plastic leadership charade. Bleeding hearts will be more and more out on a limb. We thought selfishness was big last century, I think it only began it's dominance during this period. It's going to be more and more dog eat dog.

[Heineken]

Absolutely. There are too many people and too many problems now. Poverty and struggle are creeping up to ensnare and founder the middle classes. It's becoming overwhelming. You see it happening both locally and around the world. The problems have become too large to solve, and I think people are beginning to grasp that they never will be solved. There's an atmosphere of quiet---and unquiet---desperation. Not a good climate for charity.

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'B')leeding hearts will be more and more out on a limb. We thought selfishness was big last century, I think it only began it's dominance during this period. It's going to be more and more dog eat dog.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') think we've had plenty of human slaves all along. They never vanished; they just wear more clothes.

[SeaGypsy]

That's kind of what I see emerging over the next period also Agent.
There is a naive assumption amongst conspiracy minded hoi-poloi that the wealthy are somehow blind to what's going on or their personal abilities in the emerging situation. There is a growing market for elite: yachts, martial arts, survival boot camps etc. The upper echelons are reaching out to make connections beyond their ordinary ones, because they can see the writing on the wall as well as anyone else, they know on their own they will be as screwed as anyone else. Interesting times indeed.

[Ibon]

Since human civilization emerged some 12000 years ago serfs and slaves have been the norm.........with the illusion of a brief pause during the past 100 years. Aren't we just heading back to the base line of what is a hallmark of civilization. We have discussed this in the past. We are rehashing this observation here for the what....100th time?

Perhaps, more interesting, is to explore the possibility that a return to a more "traditional" elite and serf society is actually adaptive to a world contracting due to resource constraints. Furthermore, it is worth exploring the ecological impact of a return to an elite/serf society vs. one that continues to distribute more wealth to the masses.

Notable in this regard is the observation that 1 billionaire consumes less than a 1000 millionaires.

If total consumption of resources would decline with a small elite and vast serfdom and if this would result in less ecological impact why shouldn't we embrace this?

I guess because 99% of us are serfs right?

A tabu topic worth exploring?

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'W')e are rehashing this observation here for the what....100th time?

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince human civilization emerged some 12000 years ago serfs and slaves have been the norm.........with the illusion of a brief pause during the past 100 years.

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'I') guess because 99% of us are serfs right?
A tabu topic worth exploring?

[vision-master]

Thinking like AgentR11 does keeps ppl in the existing rut.

Let me add a little.......

We are muti-dimensional beings that create our own reality. What 'we' have been duped into 'believing' is that we are nothing more than mortals, that depend on TPTB for survival. The 'control' is done thru material means, our schools, churches and social order (control). We have created this mess and we are the ones that can change, but in order to do so, we must change our way of thinking (of being). We must create a 'new' reality for ourselves. Can ya dig it?

[AgentR11]

Well, I'm kinda more interested in keeping people from dropping a wrench in the works.

That said, pstarr, you hit on something that is quite important; of that 80%, it would be wrong to think of them as a unified group. Within that category are numerous groups with diametrically opposed, and irreconcilable differences. They have also spent the last several decades proving to each other that if they DO come to power; they won't act to do much for the category as a whole, but will expend all possible energy in harming the opposed political preferences of groups within that category.

The greatest example of all time is of course Clinton and the Crime Bill; at the time, the US population was off balance enough, and not wary enough that a true National Health Service could have been brought into being. But opposition arose, and it failed. The 80% lost their opportunity. Instead, those wonderful representatives of the poor and middle class decided that while Health Care for all was not worth losing their seats over; banning odd cosmetic features on certain rifles, and setting a maximum size for newly manufactured magazines certainly was. WHAT THE ****?!?!

This is how the 80% is split, abortion, guns, gays, green, welfare, arts, blah, blah, blah. The groups within the 80% are much more hostile towards Bob the Gunnut, or Jane the EnvironmentalWacko than they are at the 1% that have truly played them for all they're worth. They split their vote, the money controls, and we get the wonderful choice of selecting between CorporateUS Obama or CorporateUS Romney. With not enough difference in enacted policy between them for a 5th grader to write a three paragraph paper.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
If total consumption of resources would decline with a small elite and vast serfdom and if this would result in less ecological impact why shouldn't we embrace this?

I guess because 99% of us are serfs right?

A tabu topic worth exploring?