[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f the country doesn't act, the financial markets eventually will raise the cost of credit, likely turning on a dime and moving quickly without warning, as is happening in Europe. If that happens, the cost of everything from credit card debt to home mortgages — along with cost of borrowing for the country — will shoot up and the U.S. will experience “a recession like you've never seen before. The markets will force us to do this at some time,” Bowles said. “You just can't live beyond your means forever.”

[Cog]

There is a snippet from the above article which I wanted to add:


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')owles said that last year, the country spent all of its revenue on interest on the national debt and entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Meanwhile, the money to pay for everything else, including wars, defense, education, infrastructure and research, had to be borrowed — and about half of that was borrowed from foreign countries.

[Cog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f the country doesn't act, the financial markets eventually will raise the cost of credit, likely turning on a dime and moving quickly without warning, as is happening in Europe. If that happens, the cost of everything from credit card debt to home mortgages — along with cost of borrowing for the country — will shoot up and the U.S. will experience “a recession like you've never seen before. The markets will force us to do this at some time,” Bowles said. “You just can't live beyond your means forever.”

[Heineken]

Those are all superb posts. Posts like those suggest to me the caliber of thinking on PO.com has not deteriorated at all.

I'm not an economist. All I know about economics comes from "what I've read in the newspapers." Also from being a long-time individual-stock investor (a successful one) and, in the course of that, reading thousands of financial stories. But I'm not an economist at all, and sometimes I struggle to understand some economic concepts.

I do know a bit more about the natural world. Therefore I tend to view "collapse" through that prism rather than an economic one. Ultimately we depend on the natural world for survival, not on fiat currencies or even on heaps of gold. People were around long before money was.

Our deteriorating economy does reflect our deteriorating resource base, though, as Gypsy and some others have implied. The two are linked, up to a point.

I don't (and never did) believe collapse-and-dieoff will be sudden, unless it involves nuclear war or some sort of epidemic. It will tend to be protracted and very painful.

Things rarely play out as predicted. It's too easy to look at things as they are now and say, That's it, we've shot our wad, we'll never have another broad economic expansion. People are determined, resilient, and highly creative. The System won't die easily, and it still has much power and many strings to pull.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'T')he main way PO.com has changed is that the forum as a whole just feels behind the curve and out of the loop what is going on in the world. I mean talking about $100+ oil in 2003 was a bold statement. That has come to pass but what is the next bold statement. There really hasn't been one since $200 oil never panned out.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '
')There is a division in collective consciousness here, many are hanging onto the old world while a few are moving towards the new world, a new way of thinking, a new way of living, yet [one] born [out of] the earliest teachings [of] mankind.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', '.')..$200 oil never hasn't panned out yet.

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '
')There is a division in collective consciousness here, many are hanging onto the old world while a few are moving towards the new world, a new way of thinking, a new way of living, yet [one] born [out of] the earliest teachings [of] mankind.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') don't (and never did) believe collapse-and-dieoff will be sudden, unless it involves nuclear war or some sort of epidemic. It will tend to be protracted and very painful.

[ralfy]

Also, we have a JIT system and limited inventories of food and medicine.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') don't (and never did) believe collapse-and-dieoff will be sudden, unless it involves nuclear war or some sort of epidemic. It will tend to be protracted and very painful.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '
')
All of this talk about slow-crash vs fast-crash will come to an abrupt end once the interest rates on US debt begins to soar. That will be the end of the US Ponzi Party, and the beginning of the fast collapse.

[Heineken]

Hmm, I'd read that PO.com had changed because most of the fast-crashers had given up or moved. But they still seem to be here. Which is all well and fine. I am a fast-crasher on alternate Wednesdays.

I was thinking about the Romans, and it occurred to me that their civilization rose, flourished, conquered much of the known world, and declined, all with no fossil fuels.

Whatever happened to the Plateau? The Bumpy Plateau. Remember that? Why wouldn't our civilization linger as the plateau lingers? Why must it crash almost immediately, when we've used up only half the oil? (Granted the cheaper half.) Do we give no points whatever for the remaining half? For conservation? For rising efficiency? For alternatives, including heavy oils?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')
Whatever happened to the Plateau? The Bumpy Plateau. Remember that? Why wouldn't our civilization linger as the plateau lingers?

[SeaGypsy]

Hah, yeah we got plenty of potential candidates, perhaps that's it (the next boom)/ the re-emergence of slave empires? If it's that versus chaos & starvation, slavery probably looks pretty good as long as you get to keep your family together. Hell of a lot of 'free workers' do worse than 3 meals & clean water.

[Heineken]

I think we've had plenty of human slaves all along. They never vanished; they just wear more clothes.

[Pops]

I'm convinced everyone will get the chance to point and say "See, I told ya!"

We'll discover billion barrel resources and the cornies will hoot - ignoring that we need a billion barrels every 12 days.
Oil prices will surge and the doomers will proclaim doom - ignoring that it can only rise if someone can pay.
The economy will preform heart-flopping drops and hops and everyone will wish they could use double-extra-large type with flashing, neon colors to post the news that they were right.


Everyone wants to know how it turns out but no one ever will.
.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'W')e're still on that bumpy plateau and hopefully it will continue for several more years

[Lore]

The race to the bottom is really a long arduous grind. Punctuated by sign posts that point in opposite directions. All I hear is children in the backseat screaming; "are we there yet?"

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Everyone wants to know how it turns out but no one never will.