[diemos]

I'm feeling ready to call a peak in US finished gasoline consumption as of last august. I suspect that that number will drop over the next couple of years as the US goes into recession. By 2010, even with increasing world oil production, the rest of the world will be claiming a larger share and US prices will be up and our consumption down. I suspect that this will be true regardless of whether US prices go up or down and is probably a better indicator of the US going into it's terminal decline than any other.

[DantesPeak]

Granted the last four weeks of gasoine demand is down 0.2% per the EIA from 2006. However the EIA figures includes some estimates, and does not retroactively revise its figures if any errors occur. Or in other words, the 0.2% drop is statistically insignificant.

However gasoline demand may actually be dropping as the economy weakens (but has not yet crossed in recession). Holding up gasoline demand is increasing population, increased suburbanization, and larger vehicles. Going against this trend is some conversion from gasoline to diesel, and higher prices.

I do agree that US gasoline and diesel demand will have to be pulled down to match the level of available supplies. My guess is that within on year demand will start to be dragged down by falling availabilty of supplies, although demand may increase slightly more until then.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('diemos', 'I')'m feeling ready to call a peak in US finished gasoline consumption as of last august. I suspect that that number will drop over the next couple of years as the US goes into recession. By 2010, even with increasing world oil production, the rest of the world will be claiming a larger share and US prices will be up and our consumption down. I suspect that this will be true regardless of whether US prices go up or down and is probably a better indicator of the US going into it's terminal decline than any other.

[diemos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')ncreasing oil production? Are you privy to information you may like to share?