[PrestonSturges]

Using "chimera" to say that something is a myth is becoming an outdated use of the word. Any truly sustainable system is likely to be a chimera. So I read the title and I was like "Wha...?"

[Serial_Worrier]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shaved Monkey', 'I')n time in one way or another the whole world will become an eco village it just wont be called that.

[Mesuge]

The most important and "unpredictable" question is which regions will ultimately fall into rapid descent without omnipresent central government and the second broad possibility of muddling through impoverished yet still somewhat centrally governed regional/national state authority.

The first option means at least some %of longterm success for distant location homesteaders, eco-villagers, and refusniks of all sorts, which can cooperate on some minimal level to fend of various incomming "zombie" and "army" residual plundering hords.

The second option and likely more prevalent outcome in the times of prolonged 50-150yrs "soft crash" means various nasty things like crop confiscation, brutal taxation and conscription, plus other forms of similar oppression well known to history.

Obviously the first eventuality benefits the most from rapid (day on day) pop crash and/or fossil/JIT infrustructure implosion, which is rather esoteric or shall we say "low prob/unrealistic" scenario to begin with.

In conclusion, the planet is too small, there are too many people stacked everywhere for an individual/family "to run-hide away", I'm afraid too many preppers will be rather disillusioned to find themselves sooner or later, just slaving under the second scenario no matter how distant their location is or deep is their cellar full of ammo.

Perhaps, it's going to be marginaly better existence than to be fully dependent on energy-food stamps (for the 99% plebs) of the future. But lets not pretend here on this very forum where all has been discussed previously so many times in much detail, that the demise of the naked ape will be painless procedure. No it will be nasty, and we will strip most of the remaining biosphere bare as going down.

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shaved Monkey', 'I')n time in one way or another the whole world will become an eco village it just wont be called that.

[SeaGypsy]

When transport breaks down permanently, so does the State's ability to control areas outside capital cities. The tendency is for the city to militarize and raid surrounding countryside for forage and women as necessary, besides pouncing pre-emptively on any perceived resistance likely to be able to hold seige.

This gives us 3 environments:
The City State (military & ruling class HQ)
The Surrounds (neo feudalism)
The Wilderness (chaos)

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'W')hen transport breaks down permanently, so does the State's ability to control areas outside capital cities. The tendency is for the city to militarize and raid surrounding countryside for forage and women as necessary, besides pouncing pre-emptively on any perceived resistance likely to be able to hold seige.

This gives us 3 environments:
The City State (military & ruling class HQ)
The Surrounds (neo feudalism)
The Wilderness (chaos)

[davep]

I'm not sure deep rural areas will be chaotic. I'm sure the denizens will keep control. They tend to be pretty hardy people. And if that gives others the impression that it is chaos out there, all the better...

[SeaGypsy]

That's what makes it really interesting don't you think?
I know in remote parts of Australia if it comes to the point there's no trade off in complying with the State, many law abiders would immediately sign up with the local militia and fend for themselves fairly well. But I'm not talking about intentional communities as such, with one or 2 exceptions, more really remote townships.

[davep]

That's how I imagine things will transpire where I live. They're no-nonsense farming people, and very good hunters.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'W')hen transport breaks down permanently, so does the State's ability to control areas outside capital cities. The tendency is for the city to militarize and raid surrounding countryside for forage and women as necessary, besides pouncing pre-emptively on any perceived resistance likely to be able to hold seige.

This gives us 3 environments:
The City State (military & ruling class HQ)
The Surrounds (neo feudalism)
The Wilderness (chaos)

[Mesuge]

SeaGypsy, I can generally subscribe to your train of thought. However, as mentioned and stressed as important point in other related threads, there simply won't be proper conditions for this category "wilderness/chaos" in many parts of the world to emerge at all, e.g. most of Europe(-Ural), coastal areas in NA, Asia etc. Cudos for those prepping/bugging out north of the arctic circle, Iceland, Siberian heartland or Aussie bush etc. but that's very marginal number.

Think about it, even after the JIT collapse the broken highway system will continue to serve for many decades as impromptu marching route for still significant swarms of troops and their donkey/prisoner pushed carts, the same goes for railways, waterways, natgaspipeline corridors and what have you.

Simply, there is NO ESCAPE from the powers of city states and neofeudalism at least for several decades post-apo. And that's the darkest point to address, have no prob or fear about the later stages, even if they turn more desperate from our current standpoint. Because the major "re-valuation of everything" will likely take place during our lifetimes and the rapid descent won't be pretty. For the next generations, the mess will be just very normal.

[SpringCreekFarm]

You are probably just pissed that you never learned to play the gee tar so that you can play your Ted Nugent and Hank Junior ( both of which probably still smoke weed or at least used to ) songs while sitting around whining about how liberals ate your lunch.

There are some hippie-types that might surprise you when it comes to self-defense.

[Serial_Worrier]

The thing rural people will have to do is have a "shoot on sight" policy for looters & arsonists.

[KingM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'T')hat's what makes it really interesting don't you think?
I know in remote parts of Australia if it comes to the point there's no trade off in complying with the State, many law abiders would immediately sign up with the local militia and fend for themselves fairly well. But I'm not talking about intentional communities as such, with one or 2 exceptions, more really remote townships.

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'S')eaGypsy, I can generally subscribe to your train of thought. However, as mentioned and stressed as important point in other related threads, there simply won't be proper conditions for this category "wilderness/chaos" in many parts of the world to emerge at all, e.g. most of Europe(-Ural), coastal areas in NA, Asia etc. Cudos for those prepping/bugging out north of the arctic circle, Iceland, Siberian heartland or Aussie bush etc. but that's very marginal number.

Think about it, even after the JIT collapse the broken highway system will continue to serve for many decades as impromptu marching route for still significant swarms of troops and their donkey/prisoner pushed carts, the same goes for railways, waterways, natgaspipeline corridors and what have you.

Simply, there is NO ESCAPE from the powers of city states and neofeudalism at least for several decades post-apo. And that's the darkest point to address, have no prob or fear about the later stages, even if they turn more desperate from our current standpoint. Because the major "re-valuation of everything" will likely take place during our lifetimes and the rapid descent won't be pretty. For the next generations, the mess will be just very normal.

[furrybill]

This discussion suggests a question: Should a Transition Town plan include something about self-defense/militia? Assuming one is able to get a town into a sustainable/oil-free position, that makes it a ripe target. So do you then have to have a discussion about putting up walls or other ideas for defending the town?

[Mesuge]

FurryBill> Even the plain fact that most of the Transition Town groupings avoid this discussion as a plaque is rather telling..

SeaGypsy> Agree, as we touched upon these relatively pristine beyond frontier outposts numerous times before. However, being realistic there are only handfull of micro-regions not yet messed up completely in terms of favorable climate (and diseases) which wouldn't kill a westerner in short order. And I discount the "agriculture" question completely, because most of the globe has been destroyed in past centuries via errosion from these over saturated settlement outposts already. These places are without fossil intake (to keep sanitary/fresh water/.. standards) a hell hole and it doesn't matter much was it originally dutch, french or british plantation colony related area. Frankly, I went through scouting for this very option, and in the end it's a dead end, too many people and/or harvesting-mining industries nearby or what you seem to suggest a crazy little hilly outpost (by the active volcano) all and all thousands nm away from everything. Facing these results, in my view it seems much more appealing to duke it out (futile prospects or not) e.g. in northern Europe or NA.

Not starting another topic on dedicated seavoyaging/trading plan though, in order to trade from your landlocked paradise outpost you have to have a surplus. To get a surplus you have to "terraform" (albeit on smaller scale and using as low impact methods as possible) your immediate surroundings to begin with, do it in the rainforrest area and it's either with no extra yield (so not suitable for trade but enough for a family/small clan without pop explosion plans). Or you are just left cornered into position starting another viscious cycle of plantation mania on your former paradise lot, which I've no intent doing at all. The truth is, as shown on historic accounts and plain sight that the 99% probability outcome of such dilema usually ends up with another freakin plantation setting, which sooner or later turns that paradise into another overpopulated and finally de-populated empty bare rocky hell hole..

[rangerone314]

There is a tribe on an island in the Pacific that maintains a limited population.

[SeaGypsy]

The entire Polynesian archipelago extending into parts of Melanesia had population control for at least several hundred years before the Jesus people came along. Infanticide played a major part as did subjugation of certain humans as slaves/ emergency food. This did not go down well with their Christian bedfellows.

Mesuge, to my mind that is an over the top reaction.
It is not rocket science that a well stocked vessel with means and ability to cross an ocean or 2, combined with some real connection to a destination with sustainable population/ fertility, can allow life to be based in NY or London whilst regularly getting back to the Canaries/ West Africa/ Finland or a myriad of places a few days/ weeks sail from wherever// might provide a means of living now and into the unknown.
You seem a bit hooked up on your abode/ lifestyle/ locale? I am the opposite in that I can go and enjoy anywhere as long as I am not under direct and real threat. People are way too paranoid of the unknown. Do you really think it's all either wasteland or volcanic/ bacterial heaven/hell? Actually, most people most places are friendly, helpfull and no threat at all; althemoreso when seafaring around remote places.
Come sailing with me.

[Mesuge]

Sorry to be echoing offensive like that to you, it was just a hint we should leave the otherwise quite good "sea-merchant" discussion for it's own threat here on PO forum. For one thing it's impossible for the long haul (most modern yacht equipment can't be retrofitted to oldschool "natural" materials) and for building new vessel fleets from scratch there is little resources left (xyx yrs old quality wood gone, woodboat build. techniques the same) etc. Yes, we can build few dozens Otong Java replicas and perhaps even some holiday chart yacht refurbs in chinese junk sail style. Fascinating, interesting, but with very little chance of success on even small scale, this is all hard core speciality route, for those who want to trade few bags of rice and spices in infested harbour hell holes of the post PO/CG world.

Again, the theme is simple, from my "limited" and in several cases same destination repeated global travels I just have very nasty predominant image of omnipresent overpopulation, fast destruction of local/global-migrating members of biosphere. And moreover, based on above that the "realistic" vision of underlying trend of wiping it all when finally the cheap fossils go dodo via net energy downfall. When even the "lite" questions and prohibitions of today for enviro protection are no longer binding at all..

Hm, maybe it's just my twisted personal perception, however the simple fact which jumps on me in every repeated visit - it is always the same: my god, it's even worse here than the last time (just xy/5-10yrs ago)..