[FoolYap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', 'N')ow it is quite sure that the economy melts down first and PO hits later. Did your preps change? Some month ago everyone thought that we soon won't be able to buy petrol but the crude price went unexpectedly down.
That tells me that any kind of predictions are more like possible scenarios and the economic crisis made things only more complicated.
We may buy heaps of food , because everyone told that it will be very expensive only to find out that with the stop of producing biofuels that food remains cheap. Others have stocked up petrol only to find that they spent twice the price on their stocks than it is worth now.

Anyhow, I stockpiled a bit of food as one can live without petrol but not without food.

Did you change your preps because of the low crude price and the financial crisis?

[Pops]

My personal 5 Rules for PO prep are 100% financial simply because my worthless guess is energy of some sort will be available for a long time if one has either the means to purchase or little desire (the Demand side of the equation).

As to commodity prices I've mentioned before they we're driven recently by larger worldwide demand, but more influenced by a weak dollar and huge moves into the various markets by entities with incredible amounts of cash and of course leverage.

I've read the run up in corn futures only contributed 4% to the increase in food prices - I haven't checked that so stand to be corrected. But the point is commodities across the board are down 40-50% from their highs this year - ethanol isn't made from lumber, copper or cotton.

And of course RE and many manufactured goods are likewise down or will get there before long. So this first dip of the plateau could be the perfect time for those who have done little to get off the dime.

I mused way back that the first fiscal waves from PO might offer a good chance for those wanting to get of the merry-go-round. Farmers markets, CSA's Local Food, organic and such have seen a big upswing in the last few years and regardless of the dire looks of the economy today, there will be people (like 1/4 million dollar a year plumbers) who will be able to support such businesses.

Personally we couldn't change direction (even if we wanted to) as I'm "All In" on my plan. And to be completely honest, if somewhat callous, since 95% of my assets are "real" and I don't plan on either borrowing, buying or selling anything substantial the current situation has impacted me little to none.

In fact, not needing much in the way of borrowing, learning to live on less, diversifying income, producing some of our own food and not relying as much on infrastructure (basically my 5 rules) has paid dividends this year for the first time. OUch, hurt my shoulder patting my back!

The majority of our Old Income was from California and they have been in the weeds for a couple of years anyway.

Even though the current situation is the result of the high rollers in the Pinstripe Casino moving from the internet to real estate to commodities to the toilet, if one imagines this past summer combined with the economy of the '70s (high interest, high unemployment and high inflation) they might get an idea of how things might appear when we do roll over one of the possible oil peaks.

Red sky at morning, Silver lining, Blue moon and all that...

[ORCA]

If anything, working on preps has resulted in my wife and I living a little more frugally. We think about needs rather than wants prior to spending money now-a-days. And when we do spend, its in cash, and for items that are durable and will be around for awhile.

Several weeks ago, I did withdraw some cash from my bank so that I would have some handy and available in case the economy took a nose dive and resulted in bank accounts not being assessable.

[patience]

Today I read that the continuing bailouts are having less effect as time goes on, and are actually causing the NEED for more guarantees by the govt.

Todays Ticker-Stark Choice Facing US

Karl Denninger says "..the second-level dislocation,"the big one", will happen in days..."

Not much time left, if you agree with his outlook, and I have no reason to doubt it. He's been pretty accurate on a lot of calls. Roubini said lately that there is a fine chance we will see an "L" shaped depression that will take years to get over. Some other analyst said this week that it could take 20 years to clean it up.

With these things in mind, we will attempt to get my wife's last remaining retirement savings plan (in US Treasuries) cashed out ASAP and use it to pay off our daughter's mortgage, issuing them a note for same. There will be some money left. I have not a clue what to do with it. Already have some cash on hand.

Every analyst I have any confidence in says there is no safe place for money at present. I'm buying more firewood, canning supplies, and building materals for food related projects, but there is a limit to what is practical in that direction.

Any good ideas out there for preserving wealth? (Note that I have a congenital aversion to gold and silver.)

[alokin]

Maybe, if you don't have lots of assets, you decide in another way.
Last weeks we really spent much more money than usually. We bought shoes and blankets and everyday things. Always the best quality we could get. Not really a big sum but I recall the tales from my grandmother of the great depression. I try not to spend anything which is luxury like eating out or a takeaway dinner, each kid gets one thing for Chrissie that's it (was always like this). But I think it is really time to stock up on durable goods, tools, sweaters etc.

Denninger writes a lot about what America must, but we all know that they never will. The bomb will go up.

[patience]

alokin,

Agreed, the US, to quote Churchill, "..can be counted on to do the right thing--after they have tried everything else", or something close to that.
Our govt appears to be in the pocket of the banksters, 100%. The rest of us get thrown under the bus, as they say. I don't think the bankers will survive this either, though. They've gone too far.

There are some everyday needs we should get, as you said. I'm wondering what I may have forgotten? I wish there was a master prep list somewhere. I saw the "100 things that run out first" list, and it helped.

[Loki]

I've always thought that a new Great Depression is the most likely scenario, or at least as long as I've thought about this kind of stuff. Doesn't mean I'm necessarily prepared for it (more than I was a few years ago, but still not enough), but the latest financial news doesn't surprise me much. Kind of expected, actually. Yay for us!

[bromius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', '
')There are some everyday needs we should get, as you said. I'm wondering what I may have forgotten? I wish there was a master prep list somewhere. I saw the "100 things that run out first" list, and it helped.

[ORCA]

I'm currently torn. Should I try to protect some buying power by converting a little cash into gold boullion, or (instead) purchase tangibles. (A home grain mill might be worth it's weight in precious metals at some point. Krugerrands were $761 on the spot market today)

I read an article today about how the dollar will fail completely soon, and anyone whose wealth is in dollars will be destitute.

Decisions!

[Pops]

Its interesting to me that the dollar is stronger than it was simply because everyone else is in as bad or worse shape than the US.

Shouldn't be a surprise I guess since we are the consumer to the world and we are cutting back. I'm still of the mind that greenbacks will be of value in the foreseeable future but I'm no expert whatsoever.

I wonder about the recent rise and fall of commodities and whether they will spike again, perhaps purchasing something required for one's business, patience?

Or maybe as I speculated a while back the next bubble will be green? So maybe those things one could use to help others lessen their "Carbon Footprint" or improve the efficiency of their (or our own) homes?

Luckily, I don't have such worries!

I guess.

Luckily

[Loki]

Orca, I'm basically in the same boat. Very limited funds. My decision is to buy $1000 of gold/silver, $2000 max, or to invest in goods that I can actually use.

Last few years I've ignored PMs and instead invested in education, useful books, tools, guns, ammo, a Big Berkey water filter, a food dehydrator, canning supplies, a good bicycle, gardening supplies, etc., etc. Ammo was by far my best investment---I'm sure I made more money on that than I would have on gold or silver. My profit on that saw me through some hard times.

So should I buy a piddling amount of gold, and probably get raped over it because I know jack about the PM markets? I'm thinking it's probably not worth it. Probably better to take more practical classes, possibly lease some farmland, and buy more tools, food, and reloading supplies. It'd be nice to stash away some Krugerrands, but I doubt my landlord would accept them for rent....

[ORCA]

I'm no expert, either. We find ourselves reading or listening to so-called "experts", and then wonder what we should really do with our limited funds.

I can see gold being a good hedge IF the dollar tanks and IF there is still some organized economy at the end of the tunnel where we could sell our gold for fair market value with whatever currency still exists rather than trading worthless dollars at one tenth the face value.

Or, dollars could deflate to where what cost $10 now costs $100 later IF you can find it. Useful durable goods would then have been the best choice. Damn! I'll got a headache!

[Pops]

Just one more thought on PMs.

All commodities (except gold) have dropped to half their price 4 months ago - copper to lumber to cotton to corn and wheat.

Gold is still about the same.

Maybe not a bargain with everyone and their brother looking for something safe, perhaps the next shoe to drop?

[Loki]

Lead also seems to be holding steady. At least lead in the form of bullets.

I haven't scoped out ammo prices in quite a while, as I stocked up when milsurp was still cheap, but spent the last half hour or so looking around. I'm actually surprised to see prices haven't gone up all that much the last couple years. XM193 costs twice what it did 4 years ago, but that price increase happened at least a couple years ago, and the price seems to have held fairly steady since then. Wolf is also about double what it was a few years ago, but still not terrible at ~26 cents/round shipped for .223 and ~21c/rd for 7.62x39 (still more than I'd pay for Wolf, though).

[ORCA]

I bought ammo when it was cheap, too, although I probably didn't buy enough - 5.56, 7.62X51, and 7.62X39.

What I've been doing since is buy a box or three of pistol ammo and the more common rifle calibers - 270, 243, etc. I also buy a brick or two of Fed. .22lr. Been doing it for some time, now. Some I practice with, like the Winchester "white box" stuff. The other I put away.

Tangibles! Hear a lot about buying "tangibles" these days instead of converting everything to PMs. You guys probably already know about this, but many avocate purchasing durable goods now because you might not be able to find those goods later, or be able to afford them if you do. This would also include items that people would want to barter for should the economic worst case occur, like matches, hi-cap mags, tools, guns, ammo, etc.

My wife thinks I'm obsessed with this and that I worry too much over it. I may be a little obsessed, but I don't worry about it. What comes, comes. I'm not so attached to life that I freak out over the thought of losing it, but I do want to survive troubled times if I can.