[Pops]

Thanks doc.

[rockdoc123]

and the hole keeps getting deeper and deeper

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')iners remove gold nuggets from stream beds and broken deposits without carting away and pulverizing any ore material.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o it appears that your necessary definition of mining demands some sort of separation (physical or chemical) into constituent parts. I guess that excludes coal mining.

[Moto]

pstarr you are kind of troll. We stay on the same general topic, but I don't think you are as dumb as you come off. This kind of discussion gets this page lots of hit so I suppose it doesn't really matter.

You say we don't have facts. --> The facts are provided--> You ignore them and come up with something else to try to get an emotional response out of people.

I'm going to turn this on you now, and ask you to kindly provide sources for your EROI argument you kept bringing up. If you provide any evidence of low EROI I will take it under consideration.

Your understanding of fracking was a best learned through news media outlets, and they almost never know what they are talking about. In order to understand it you are going to have to read scientific papers. (lots of them) Or you could go work for an oil company

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rockdoc could you please provide a link to your old estimate of peak production... I am interested in looking at it.
Thanks

[basil_hayden]

28 years to extract 4,000 days of oil, educate yourselves:

https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/presentations/NDOGCPC2010-09-30.pdf slide 26

http://www.blm.gov/pgdata/etc/medialib/blm/mt/blm_programs/energy/oil_and_gas.Par.98124.File.dat/forumtranscript.pdf page 112

This boom, while necessary, won't last long and is damn close to scraping the bottom of the hydrocarbon barrel.

[Moto]

This barrel just happens to be shaped like a pyramid. Traditional fields were at the top.

QEP Resources - Q2 2011 Bakken Operations Report
- Average completed well costs range from $6.5 million to $9 million per well. (Prices are currently inflated due to shortages in the Williston basin)
- Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) per well range from 350,000 to 750,000 per well.

These QEP's EUR numbers are average to low given 2011 drilling technology.
In the best wells in the bakken have EUR of 2 million barrels. I assume you cant just multiply by a factor of 3.5 or 7.5, but I'm sure it would dramatically affect your estimates.

[Moto]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', '2')8 years to extract 4,000 days of oil, educate yourselves:

https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/presentations/NDOGCPC2010-09-30.pdf slide 26

http://www.blm.gov/pgdata/etc/medialib/blm/mt/blm_programs/energy/oil_and_gas.Par.98124.File.dat/forumtranscript.pdf page 112

This boom, while necessary, won't last long and is damn close to scraping the bottom of the hydrocarbon barrel.

[basil_hayden]

WTF is a significant amout of time?

Do you not understand the relationship between money, time, EROEI, supply and demand?

Do you not see the inevitable wall we hit after your "significant amount of time"?

[Moto]

Well, how far out in the future do you care about the peak? Peak oil people are always going to be right if you put a long enough time frame on it. Like I said there are going to be a lot of other fields that start using the same technology as the Williston basin. If it becomes economic to obtain the other "bottom of the barrel" resource we will have many decades to more than a century worth of energy. The drilling boom will last more than 15 years in the Williston basin as long as prices hold out.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o you not understand the relationship between money, time, EROEI, supply and demand?

[Moto]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Assumption and conclusion are
--100,000 bbl ultimate recovery per well,
--$5 million drilling cost,
--6.1 EROI
.

[basil_hayden]

OK, let me try one last time.

If it takes 28 years to scrape 11 years of resources that means we're 17 YEARS SHORT.
I damn sure care about the future beyond 2022 (that's 2011+11).
A few corps will walk away with $20+ million per well, but the rest of us are screwed.

The relationship between money, time, eroei, supply and demand is called the ECONOMY.
Economy is that thing we won't have soon, have you seen gasoline prices drop? I haven't.
Trouble is, it's that economy that we as a society rely on for the little things like FOOD.

EROEI changes dramatically as nonrenewable resources are developed UNTIL THEY'RE GONE.
We didn't solve any problems between 2008 when oil prices skyrocketed and 2011; at this point it's a slam dunk we won't solve any problems between 2011 and 2022 either. Climate change is the least of our worries.

You've got your "pyramid" upside down, it sits on its point with its base in the air. The base in the air is empty now, the point at the bottom is what we're scraping and you don't see the problem with that, but Pstarr is a troll. I totally get it now.

[Moto]

Time will tell. At this point, we might have to agree to disagree. I personally think you are ignoring too many things and not seeing the big picture. Oil is not our only resource.

We did solve problems between 2008 and 2011, but there is a time lag in which you don't see any benefits. (both in renewable and none renewable sources advance)

I agree that the economy is screwed, but I think that has more to do with bad policy decisions than energy at this point. Energy prices played a big role in the initial crash, and it is hurting the recovery, but the problem is much bigger than just energy. Energy prices are partly high due to bad decisions made in Washington.

The pyramid refers to the amount of technically recoverable reserves. I am not considering price, but I do think we will see the price drop to match or slightly beat renewable resources. (which will provide many decades worth of energy)

In addition to be geology degree I have a good chunk of an econ degree done too. I don't think I totally disagree with what your saying, but I might have more faith in the people trying to solve the problems.

[basil_hayden]

You may be right Moto, and I do not wish to attack, but all I've been doing for the last 5 years is watching the frog come to a boil. I too have a geology degree under my belt, and 25 years of business experience. Short term thinking got us in the predicament we're in and I don't see that changing, until it has to, and then it's too late.

[Moto]

Yeah, we're not far off in our line of thinking. I just think we can get past the "too late" part.
Have a good day.

[Bruce_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Moto', '
')- Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) per well range from 350,000 to 750,000 per well.

[Moto]

The state always posts numbers that lag by about a year. (they do have the best data though)
What you posted is from 2008. I trust industry numbers more than the state. Other companies are posting EUR numbers up to 1.5 million bbls a well now. (continental and Brigham)

Since 2008 companies have moved from just a few fracking stages to more than 30. The wellbore is in contact with a lot more rock now than it was in 2008.

[Bruce_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ind the URR for a well. Convert that into gigajoules. (6.1 Gj per BOE is the value I used).

Take the dollar cost to drill the well. Convert that into gigajoules. The conversion is done by using the energy intensity of an industry in j/$. In the case of the oil and gas industry, for 2005 that was 20e6j/$. Drilling is about twice as energy intense as the US average. The energy intensity value came from Dr. Hall's EROI nat gas paper.

So 100k bbl out per well = 6.1e5Gj and $5 mil to drill the well = 1e5Gj

EROI = 6.1e5Gj/1e5Gj = 6.1.