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Commercial Real Estate Collapse, Why hasn't it Happened Yet

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Commercial Real Estate Collapse, Why hasn't it Happened Yet

Unread postby timmac » Fri 19 Mar 2010, 18:46:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', ' ') Why? I'm convinced they are trying to keep tenants in their and paying so that they can find a buyer. However, this shows how bad the commercial property market is when tenants are forgiven $300k in back rent and rent reduced just to keep the space filled.


That's because its better to have warm bodies in there paying rent than to have it sit empty for months or years at a time like this.
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Re: Commercial Real Estate Collapse, Why hasn't it Happened Yet

Unread postby Gerben » Fri 19 Mar 2010, 19:06:49

They could at least have kept the 300k$ open as in - pay me back when you win the lottery. That would allow the bank to at least keep it in their books. Now they had to take a loss.
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Re: Commercial Real Estate Collapse, Why hasn't it Happened Yet

Unread postby Niagara » Sat 20 Mar 2010, 15:41:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'D')o they use the same formula with crime as they do with inflation and unemployment ? :P


yeah, maybe we need a website like ShadowStats.com, except with honest crime stats.

i am saying unequivocally, property crime in Northern California has risen (very conservatively) 2-fold the last 10 years. i see more locally perhaps because i'm in an urban area.


The reason crime rates are lower is very simple. Many felonies have been downgraded to misdemeanor status; minor offenses get swept under the carpet because the justice system is overburdened.

Eg. In California 73 crimes have been reclassified including drug and insurance-related offenses.

Yup, crime is "dropping" LOL.
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Re: Commercial Real Estate Collapse, Why hasn't it Happened Yet

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 22 Mar 2010, 21:14:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', 'T')he reason crime rates are lower is very simple. Many felonies have been downgraded to misdemeanor status; minor offenses get swept under the carpet because the justice system is overburdened.

This is utterly untrue. If you compare the same categories over the years, they have gone down. E.g. the murder rate has gone down, the rape rate has gone down, etc. It has nothing to do with how they are categorized.

For example, here are burglary rates. A burglary now has the same definition it did 30 and 50 years ago. It has nothing to do with misdemeanor status or anything like that.

Image
More here
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Commercial Real Estate Collapse, Why hasn't it Happened Yet

Unread postby anador » Mon 22 Mar 2010, 22:16:00

What is the hole in that graph? was there no data in late 2006?
@#$% highways
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Re: Commercial Real Estate Collapse, Why hasn't it Happened Yet

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Mon 22 Mar 2010, 22:18:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', 'T')he reason crime rates are lower is very simple. Many felonies have been downgraded to misdemeanor status; minor offenses get swept under the carpet because the justice system is overburdened.

This is utterly untrue. If you compare the same categories over the years, they have gone down. E.g. the murder rate has gone down, the rape rate has gone down, etc. It has nothing to do with how they are categorized.

For example, here are burglary rates. A burglary now has the same definition it did 30 and 50 years ago. It has nothing to do with misdemeanor status or anything like that.

Image
More here


Lies OF2, all guvemant lies!! :lol:
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Re: Commercial Real Estate Collapse, Why hasn't it Happened Yet

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 22 Mar 2010, 22:42:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anador', 'W')hat is the hole in that graph? was there no data in late 2006?

Yeah, it looks weird, but here's the reason:
LINK
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '*')Victimization rate trends exclude NCVS estimates for 2006 because of methodological inconsistencies between the data for that year and the data for other years. Changes to the NCVS and their impact upon the survey's estimates in 2006 are discussed in the Criminal Victimization, 2006 Technical Notes.

They did that for several other stats in 2006 also. You have to read the 2006 technical notes. It's just for that one year, however.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Commercial Real Estate Collapse, Why hasn't it Happened Yet

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 23 Mar 2010, 07:26:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'L')et's not forget our favorite doomer chart:

Image


The good news is, if we last until mid 2012 things will return to normal. The bad news is PO and CC are going to start biting any time now and we might not get to June 2012 without total systemic collapse.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Commercial Real Estate Collapse, Why hasn't it Happened Yet

Unread postby Gerben » Tue 23 Mar 2010, 08:30:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anador', 'W')hat is the hole in that graph? was there no data in late 2006?

Yeah, it looks weird, but here's the reason:
LINK
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '*')Victimization rate trends exclude NCVS estimates for 2006 because of methodological inconsistencies between the data for that year and the data for other years. Changes to the NCVS and their impact upon the survey's estimates in 2006 are discussed in the Criminal Victimization, 2006 Technical Notes.

They did that for several other stats in 2006 also. You have to read the 2006 technical notes. It's just for that one year, however.


I can translate that into laymens terms: for some reason not mentioned (they didn't like the numbers??) they changed the methodology for creating those numbers and removed 2006 from the chart so it wouldn't be displayed so obviously in it. You cannot compare pre-2006 data with post 2006 data if they change the methodology.
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