[Anvil]

Hi every one i had this idea whilst watching On the edge video and no i didnt get the idea from crazy old max ranting on about oil shortages. But from the guy he was interviewing said something really interesting to do with Chinese oil consumption. He said that it didnt make sense to him that china didn't take a bigger share of the energy pipe away from America by increasing the value of its currency. To be able to afford to buy energy from other countries at a cheaper cost to cover its resent short falls in electricity supplies to consumption. This then got me thinking about what the long term impacts of shortages of cheap fossil fuel will have on Chinese consumers and businesses. And i think i know what the Chinese consumers and businesses will demand from the their government is a cheap and reliable sources of cheap energy and Chinese governments answer will be buy our clean renewable energy products. These demands play into the hand of a canny Chinese government whose policy is to develop clean renewable technology through using the largest subsidies and direct investment in the world to become independent of fossil fuels to prepare for peak everything and get rid of external price pursuers of fossil fuels shortages have on it economy.

The chinese government has the problem=answer and solution to the long term probem all worked out in the end from my perspective. China inflicts short term pain to get long term gain from its economy.

So what do you guys think am i right or wrong in by rather off the bat theory that trys to add deeper meaning to current events?

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd i think i know what the Chinese consumers and businesses will demand from the their government is a cheap and reliable sources of cheap energy and Chinese governments answer will be buy our clean renewable energy products.

[Shaved Monkey]

The richest man in China (is an Australian)
solar power magnate says where the country is heading ,they wont be buying technology products from anywhere,they will make their own.
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/11 ... ichest.php
The simple maths is you have x amount of people to get x amount of geniuses that will invent/create something good.
China has potentially more geniuses than most places just based on population statistics, then add central Government money driving the search for research/inventiveness, rather than simple capitalist supply and demand model that requires a profit incentive.

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anvil', 'H')e said that it didnt [sic] make sense to him that china didn't take a bigger share of the energy pipe away from America by increasing the value of its currency.

[astalavista_b]

China has huge coal reserves that they could not use much of them. They have some plans to use them to produce electricity in order to fulfill their demand.

"With a shortage of domestic oil and an automobile market that's now the world's biggest, China has begun a large-scale program to transform its abundant coal resources into motor fuels. It's already home to the world's largest coal liquefaction plant--a facility in Inner Mongolia that reached its full capacity last year and can now pump out a million gallons of diesel fuel per day."

http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/26052/

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('astalavista_b', 'C')hina has huge coal reserves that they could not use much of them.

[astalavista_b]

I checked the Wiki that it says that China has left 35 years to finish its coal reserves. However they want to diversify their electricity production even it causes huge coal imports. China's coal import tripled from 40 million(2006) to 152 million (2009). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal#World_coal_reserves

That's how they are trying to cope with their huge energy demand. Since China is also one of the top oil importer, the only reason to make such plan can be to diversify their energy resource.

[GoIllini]

Regardless, long run, they are going to have to buy their food from the US. That has always been the US's strength.

The US is fine here. We sell them corn at $7.50/bushel; they sell us back $15 DVD players. If they jack the prices up to $20 on DVD players, we either institute an export tax to jack corn up to $10/bushel or make our own $18 DVD players or stop buying new DVD players for a while. Given geography, the natural inelasticity of food demand, and a quick look at the game theory for two nuclear-armed states' militaries, China can't necessarily do the opposite.

The world's most valuable commodity isn't uranium, gold, or oil. It's food. We have 35% of the world's arable land and (ignoring expensive fruit imports from Latin America) export most of the world's grain. Russia has already stopped exports this year. If we were to play 1/3 as mercantilist with our grain exports as China did with its rare earth elements, we could turn them into the biggest free-trade boosters since Adam Smith. But we choose not to. We are a country run by (alternating) free-market capitalists and be-nice-to-your-neighbors liberals, and we to keep choosing to play fair with countries that choose to play unfair.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'R')egardless, long run, they are going to have to buy their food from the US. That has always been the US's strength.

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'R')egardless, long run, they are going to have to buy their food from the US. That has always been the US's strength.

[stephankrasner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'R')egardless, long run, they are going to have to buy their food from the US. That has always been the US's strength.

[Anvil]

The Chinese know that they have run up against peak water why do you think they are diverting the rivers of Tibet for? Just for electricity i think not. They india nation is destined to die from lack of vision (to control there population) and the making of to many enemies in the name of there so call democracy in the name of the USA. The Chinese have also invested the largest amount of money into alternative energy (in the world) and shored up there supply chain in energy rich nations of central Asia and other energy rich enemies of the USA imperialistic bullying in a bid to survive peak energy. Has the USA shown any ambition in the area of renewable energies sense the time of Cater. I think not, therefore it is with not much regret that i say the USA is also a failing nation of huge imperialistic ambitions and lack of forward think vision. With plenty of enemies from its brutal reign of blood by the sword as the sole super power of the world to laugh at its down fall.
The multi-power world is coming soon mark my words.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')But what about Africa? That whole massive continent is essentially undeveloped. The Chinese are buying farmland left and right.. I think their long term plan is for an African breadbasket.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stephankrasner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'R')egardless, long run, they are going to have to buy their food from the US. That has always been the US's strength.

[stephankrasner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anvil', 'W')ith plenty of enemies from its brutal reign of blood by the sword as the sole super power of the world to laugh at its down fall.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stephankrasner', 'P')eople need to realize that the problem is not the shortages (oil, money, arable land, water, etc.). The shortage tells us that the system isn't working. The Chinese leaders like the U.S. leaders believe that infinite expansion is possible. It's not, and the dream of an eco industrial complex is a fantasy. They aren't going to have it and neither are we.

[stephankrasner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'Y')es, but in the meantime, during our lifetimes, the US is going to get rich off of the food shortages if that's the case.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stephankrasner', '
')You mention water, how is all that water going to be trucked around the country if oil isn't cheap, let alone, shipping it to countries on the other side of the world affordably?

[kiwichick]

goillini; have you got any of those drugs going spare?

[kiwichick]

2008 was just an entree

99% of people , at all levels, are still in denial and time is rapidly running out

we possibly could pull up if we took rapid and radical action, but it looks increasingly like we won't