[UncoveringTruths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Almost unnoticed
But now, Fools, I'm concerned that the world's energy situation is far more precarious than is typically understood. Certainly, the mainstream media haven't picked up on the fragile state of the world's ability to meet increasing crude oil demand with ready supplies. (But then, keeping up with Britney and Paris is a time-consuming assignment.) Nor have the powers that be in Washington displayed any sort of grasp of the true nature of the energy challenges we're already beginning to face.

For my part, I'll wager that production declines brought on by the aging of many of the world's biggest oilfields, coupled with governmental shenanigans in a host of nations that happen to contain the world's biggest hydrocarbon reserves, could create serious global supply shortages far sooner than is generally realized. Indeed, I think these factors have been major contributors to both the steady upward march of crude prices during 2007 and the solid performances of many of the companies in the sector.

And now more than ever I'm convinced that, because of this, it's crucial that we at The Motley Fool provide our readers with a steady stream of truly usable information about energy and energy investments. With Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) about to kick off what promises to be a lively earnings season for the group on Friday, what better time to start the wheels in motion for the creation of our Energy Mailbag?

[Fishman]

Very interesting, Motley is read by many folks . Bet the numbers pick up here at peakoil with lots of newbies.

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fishman', 'V')ery interesting, Motley is read by many folks . Bet the numbers pick up here at peakoil with lots of newbies.

[Sys1]

ohanian : we could even create our own hubbert curb from those statistics
"Peak Peakoil.com"

[UncoveringTruths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o, you're sitting there thinking that these projections seem relatively modest. Surely, we can add just over a single percentage point to our annual oil output to hit that 2030 bogey of 116 million barrels a day. The difficulty, as The Wall Street Journal pointed out earlier this week, is that there's a growing school of thought that we may not be able to get anywhere close to 116 million barrels a day -- ever. It may just be that we're at or near the limits or our ability to wring more oil from the land, the ocean, tar sands, and shale.

This less optimistic view -- which ExxonMobil doesn't hold -- is shared by the likes of Christophe de Margerie, CEO of France's Total SA (NYSE: TOT). Last month, according to the Journal, he labeled predictions similar to Exxon's but rendered by the conservative Paris-based International Energy Agency as "unrealistic." Indeed, in de Margerie's opinion, we'll be lucky to ever reach 100 million barrels of daily crude output.

Tired old wells
And that's not solely a contrarian French outlook. James Mulva, the CEO of ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), the third-largest U.S. oil company, recently said he doesn't see worldwide supply ever exceeding the 100 million barrels-per-day figure. Many who concur base their thoughts on geologic considerations, like the weariness of many of the world's big producing fields, most of which were discovered before 1970. But there's also the view, espoused by the likes of Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) CEO Andrew Gould, that the world just doesn't have enough geologists, engineers, or equipment to permit meaningful production gains.

However, what I believe is the bigger problem is geriatric wells. The difficulty is that, if global demand continues to grow unchecked -- and it probably will -- and those who believe that production won't be able to match it (an expanding group that includes yours truly) are right, the consequences will surely be severe. This would include nations pitted against nations in confrontations more serious than skirmishes within the United Nations.

[Zardoz]

Reality is beginning to intrude, but these recent converts still don't have anything like a full grasp of the situation.

A hundred million barrels a day? Yeah, right.

That will never happen. We're still waiting for a quarter that averages 86, aren't we? Hell, if we hit 88 all of us forum rats will be stunned, won't we?

They're getting it, but they still have a ways to go. They'll get there.

[thor]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'H')ell, if we hit 88 all of us forum rats will be stunned, won't we?

[Starvid]

If decline during the next couple of years is relatively benign and the megaprojects stop slipping, we might well see 90 or 92 million barrels per day. But never, ever 100.