Peak Oil is You
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Page added on September 19, 2021
The coming decline of oil is another excellent reason to make the energy transition
It is the lifeblood of the economy. Few of the objects around us that have not been made or shipped thanks to him. It is oil, which has been exploited since the middle of the 19th century, and which today remains the main source of fossil energy consumed on Earth.
For how long before the reserves run out? The boom in shale oil and other unconventional oils in the late 2000s seemed to offer respite to a world increasingly addicted to black gold. While this lifeline shows signs of fragility, the question of the decline in global oil production is resounding. It is at the heart of
Oil, the decline is near (Ed. Seuil Reporterre), published this month by Matthieu Auzanneau, director of the energy transition think-tank The Shift Project, with Hortense Chauvin, journalist at Reporterre.
This is the second book that Matthieu Auzanneau, a former investigative journalist, devotes to hydrocarbons. In 2015, he published Black gold, the great history of oil, special prize from the Association of Energy Economists. His new book focuses on the major geopolitical upheavals to which our world is exposed while the decline in world production seems inevitable in the 2030s. Matthieu Auzanneau responds to 20 Minutes.
When did we come out of the era of “easy oil”?
In a way, this issue of oil decline is as old as the oil industry. The first black gold rush began in 1859 with drilling in Pennsylvania. These first wells have been exhausted for nearly a century. And there is nothing surprising: the exploitation of an oil well – a source of non-renewable energy on the scale of human history – inevitably follows a bell curve. It necessarily goes through a maximum before returning to zero. The decline can only be slowed by investing in pumping and injection techniques.
In 2008, world production of conventional oil – conventional liquid oil which provides three quarters of current production (see box) – reached an absolute peak in production. This record can never be broken again, has since confirmed, on several occasions, the International Energy Agency (IEA). But the end of “easy oil” – when oil was relatively easy to find and exploitable without heavy investment – dates even earlier. Oil tankers began to evoke it at the end of the 1990s, when it was necessary to start looking ever deeper at sea or exploiting heavy oils.
The near end of oil has been announced several times in the past …
In the 2000s, the idea that oil production would soon peak before declining was indeed agitating the energy world. This happened for conventional oil with this peak of production in 2008, which the British Colin Campbell and the French Jean Laherrère, two major oil specialists, had anticipated ten years earlier. On the other hand, almost no expert had seen the spectacular rise of unconventional oils at the end of the 2000s. That of shale oil in particular, all the more surprising since it almost only takes place in States. -United. Not only did shale oil enable this country to put an end to forty years of decline in its hydrocarbon production, but also to continue to meet, during the 2010s, a worldwide demand for oil which was still growing.
But this lifeline remains extremely crumbly, as this new industry has difficulty in being profitable. We can then see this boom in unconventional oils as one of the symptoms of the end of easy oil. These hydrocarbons had been known for a long time, but the tankers were not going to look for them because they are more difficult to exploit and therefore less profitable. It is as if, for decades, we had gathered the best fruits within easy reach, and now we must turn to those spoiled at the end of the most inaccessible branches.
Is the decline in world oil production – conventional and unconventional – near?
This book does not make a prediction, but qualifies a risk. Half of the world’s oil production is now “mature” and is starting to decline. We have mentioned the weaknesses of unconventional oils. For its part, the annual volume of conventional oil discoveries has been steadily declining since the mid-1960s, although the amounts invested in exploration are increasing. Parts of the Arctic Ocean and the greater depths are about the only areas that still have surprises in store. In any case, this oil will not be easy to find. A decline in global oil production therefore appears inevitable in the 2030s, and perfectly possible from the 2020s. At the same time, it is likely that demand for oil will continue to grow, driven in particular by demographic and economic growth in the Asia and, to a lesser extent, Africa.
The threat is not ignored by tankers. An example among those we give in the book: Last February, Helle Kristoffersen, Chief Strategy Officer of Total, mentioned the risk of a deficit of 10 million barrels per day by 2025 to meet demand . Ten million barrels per day is a tenth of world production. The great oil shocks of the 1970s were triggered by much smaller deficits.
Are we sufficiently aware of what a world weaned from oil means?
Not at all, and that’s one of the reasons for this book. As individuals, we only come into contact with oil by refueling our cars. But its domination is almost absolute in all transport – land, sea or air. This is what makes black gold the lifeblood of the economy. But a quarter of the oil consumed in the world is also consumed by industry, either as fuel or as raw material. Oil, for example, remains essential in the production of plastic.
Clearly, when you look around you, rare are the objects that were not manufactured or transported thanks to oil. We are addicted to it. And in such a state of addiction, problems arise not when there isn’t a single drop left, but when you start to run out.
Is the European Union at the forefront of the decline in oil?
Along with China, we are the world’s largest importer of oil. This dependence is not limited to the consumption that one makes of it. Take France: its fourth budgetary resource is the TIPCE [un impôt indirect sur les produits pétroliers] , which earns him some 30 billion euros per year. We will not do without it easily. And the EU can worry about the security of its supplies. The total oil production of the sixteen main suppliers is likely to contract significantly by 2030, estimated a study that the Shift project published last May, carried out at the request of the Ministry of the Armed Forces. Marc Blaizot and Alain Lehner, two Total alumni took part. Without doubt the best French oil experts today. The Kremlin itself announces that Russia’s decline in production [plus grand fournisseur d’hydrocarbures de l’UE], should begin in the 2020 decade.
Is this near decline that you describe then one more reason to make this ecological transition?
This is one of the main messages of this book. Since the Kyoto protocol in 1997 [premier accord international visant à la réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre], we are practically on the spot on the issue of phasing out fossil fuels. However, if we do not do it voluntarily – to avoid a world at more than 2 ° C – we will have to do it by force, simply faced with the depletion of the resource.
This second issue even makes it possible to envisage a new way of approaching the problem. By starting by posing it in its physical-technical dimension. That is to say, starting by taking the time to look at the problem in these objectivable dimensions. We would then understand that we have come out of “easy oil”. We would also realize that, if oil and other fossil fuels have been so dominant for decades, it is because they were the easiest to exploit. By definition, all of their alternatives are more complicated to implement. It is therefore essential to find a way to consume less energy. To do more with less. The remedy is energy efficiency gains.
14 Comments on "The coming decline of oil is another excellent reason to make the energy transition"
D T on Tue, 21st Sep 2021 12:21 pm
“energy transition” This has been going on now for 20 years or more yet the world continues to burn FF at brake neck speeds. Are we their yet?
Cloggie on Fri, 24th Sep 2021 9:51 am
“The coming decline of oil is another excellent reason to make the energy transition”
In 2021, it’s the ONLY option, if you rule out coal (which you should rule out).
Fusion and thorium are unlikely ready for prime time before 2050. And then it remains to be seen if they can compete in price per kWh again fully developed renewables + storage.
Nuclear is the most expensive form of electricity generation…
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2020/11/19/lazard-renewable-energy-cheapest-by-far/
“Lazard – Renewable Energy Cheapest by Far”
… and uranium is not found in Europe, which could become an issue, if the current globalized world economy is replaced by a multi-polar political world order. Besides, in an environmentally hyper-sensitive continental Europe, the nuclear strategy is dead on arrival, been there, done that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxh93HdDw6k
The only workable tactics could be to keep existing nuclear power stations open for a few years longer, to serve as base-load, while storage methods mature.
i award all supertards and (((supertards))) who did not take MUZZ-19 killshot with honorary PhDs because PhDs dont take MUZZ-19 killshot on Fri, 24th Sep 2021 9:57 am
honorable mention goes to recently minted supertard peakyeast
please feel at ease among friends, we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here
makati1 on Fri, 24th Sep 2021 3:43 pm
Cloggie, coal, nuclear, oil, NG, etc., will be in use for a long time. Renewables are not ever going to be practical or scale up, even if demand for energy halves. But dream on. If you got the GMO-JAB, odds are you will not be around to see my prediction come true. ^_^
makati1 on Fri, 24th Sep 2021 3:55 pm
BTW: An interesting FACT: The US buys its nuclear fuel from … RUSSIA!
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/doe-targets-end-to-us-reliance-on-russian-nuclear-fuel-revived-domestic-ca/581701/ (2020)
So the US needs Russian fuel, just like the EU needs Russian NG.
And the US imports most of its necessities from … CHINA!
Can you see what a real war with either or both would do to Amerika?
The West is dying…from insanity.
FamousDrScanlon on Fri, 24th Sep 2021 10:20 pm
mak, so what you and your fellow anti-vaxx paranoids are saying is the overlords plan is to kill the majority of the population via vaccines? A majority who just happen to be the ones enriching, protecting & cooperating with said overlords. So they want them all dead so they can be left alone with you angry, paranoid, self pitying, scapegoating, conspiracy malcontents, who have made it perfectly clear, you will never cooperate with them, and in fact, want to kill them? Especially the Jewish ones.
That’s their plan? Get rid of all their allies so they can face their violent accusers all by themselves?
Oh hell Ya, that makes perfect sense, mak. Yup, throwing your weapons away just before the battle begins is real smart. This is what you expect me to believe?
Perhaps you & your conspiracy classmates should wait until after nap time before spinning any new tales?
If anyone needs culling it’s you morons. Just to make sure, all your descendants should be hunted down & spayed or neutered, unless they’re conspiracy tards too, in which case they can line up against a wall.
What I find amusing is how certain white boys bad behaviour is going to end up fulfilling one of their more ridiculous conspiracy-prophecies — white genocide.
It works great so long as you leave out the stats showing whites chose to have less kids or none at all because having less kids was the only way you could afford your ATV’s, ski boats, trips to Vegas, NFL season tickets + tail gate expenses, eating out 6-8 per week & that shit ton of consumer junk jammed in your garage & closets & $5K & counting of dumb tattoos.
White genocide is just one more cop-out, in a life long list of cop-outs & scapegoats by white assholes who refuse to take ANY responsibility for……anything…..ever.
Declining net energy plus corrupt politicians
(left & right) is what put you in the position chose between being a grown up & doing your replacement breeding duty to keep the nation strong & white VS being an “it’s all about me” teenager for the rest of your life.
Clearly we can see what path a majority of white people chose. Hell millions of white ‘adults’ still dress & talk like teens. And guys, what’s with the baseball caps every fucking waking moment? No, putting sunglasses on them don’t make a diff child.
White genocide is a figment of the imagination of someone of weak character – the eternal victim. Those who adopted it are victim weaklings too.
There’s less whites because millions of you chose to remain teenagers and do as little of that grown up ‘shit’ as you can get away with & that includes keeping your not fully developed (emotionally & intellectually) teenage brain for the rest of your lives.
Like most teens nothing is ever your fault & the grown ups know nothing (they just don’t get it) while you & your buddies know it all.
If there is ever a fight….a real fight, y’all won’t last the first round.
Y’all been playing victim so long, victim hood & the weakness that goes with it are a part of you now.
i never awarded honorary PhD to elite whitey (((supertard))) Michael Rapaport because he took MUZZ-19 killshot if I awarded it then I rescind it I award elite whitey (((supertard))) alice honorary PhD if she doesnt have one already she never on Fri, 24th Sep 2021 11:22 pm
took MUZZ-19
the number of elite whitey (((supertards))) who took MUZZ-19 is yuggeeee. It’s gonna be a holocaustianity in slow motion
PhDs don’t take MUZZ-19. They are the most hesistant
anyways, please feel at ease among friends we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here.
PhDs know MUZZ-19 contains semen from DROPOUT-19 he mixed it in his basement in empty paint buckets and sell it for a lot of money MUZZ-19 killshot has been MUZZED tons of people but the information is heavyly censored anyways i award all on Fri, 24th Sep 2021 11:26 pm
supertards who did not take MUZZ-19. this show the supertards are PhD-like, very smart.
anyways, please feel at ease among friends we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here.
I PROMOTED PEAKYEAST TO SUPERTARD AND ALSO GRANTED HONORARY PHD BECAUSE HE DIDNT TAKE MUZZ-19 KILLSHOT congrats to supertard peakyeast his title is THE LOVER of supermacist muzzies on Fri, 24th Sep 2021 11:28 pm
please feel at ease among friends, we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here.
Biden's hairplug on Sat, 25th Sep 2021 1:37 am
Yet another day with British news. Not that I’m necessarily obsessed with Britain, but I am obsessed with geopolitics and Brexit-Britain is an open wound for the now outgoing NWO. And the South China Sea is the other open wound. And then there is the energy cluster. All three developments are playing into the hands of continental Europe, big time.
“MPs urge the Government to bring in the ARMY to drive petrol trucks as retailers warn ministers they have just TEN days to save Christmas as HGV driver shortage wreaks havoc”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10025029/Ministers-hold-urgent-talks-HGV-visas-amid-fuel-panic-buying.html
Note, there is no shortage of fuel in Britain, there is a shortage of TRUCK DRIVERS (100,000) to deliver sufficient fuel to the petrol stations. The problem became acute because of Brexit, sending home skilled but cheap eastern European trucks drivers (25,000 overnight). Any sane, pragmatic government would install a few simple measures to allow selected people to return (assuming these were willing in the first place, a big if, perhaps only for astronomical wages), but in London, Brexiteer-extremists have taken over government and legions of Polish drivers flocking back into the country would be seen as a humiliation for these Brexit-cultists fanatics. So the country has to suffer dearly. Brussels no doubt loves the scenes.
And then there is an inter-connector that connects the French and British grids, that caught fire recently and could be out of business until March. Perhaps the French government isn’t in a hurry to repair the cable and come to the aid of a geopolitical competitor, who just humiliated France with AUKUS and these submarine deal, who knows?
Oh wait, while I wrote these lines above, the DailyMail has posted a new headline:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10026429/Frenzied-buying-causes-flare-ups-gridlocked-filling-stations-motorists-ignore-Government-pleas.html
“Boris Johnson set for U-turn on visas for 5,000 foreign truck drivers as panic-buying gridlocks filling stations and country slides towards food shortages but is it too little, too late?”
5,000 extra drivers means a shortage of 100,000-5,000 = 95,000 drivers. Brilliant, Boris!
Biden's hairplug on Sat, 25th Sep 2021 2:12 am
“BTW: An interesting FACT: The US buys its nuclear fuel from … RUSSIA!”
BS, only 19%:
https://www.virginiauranium.com/uranium-101/uranium-market-u-s-uranium-sources/
Biden's hairplug on Sat, 25th Sep 2021 11:54 am
Endgame for Boris Johnson?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goo06-v2h-w
Michael Lambert: “Boris Johnson is finished – and he knows it”
Already looking forward for a spectacle in the best “House of Cards” traditions and seeing the next Westminster political assassination coming up, carried out by those Tories, who were side-lined by the Brexiteers and ERG, people like Tess May, John Major, Lord Heseltine, Alan Clark and a lot more.
Expect the biggest tar-and-feather treatment being reserved for Nigel Farage.
makati1 on Sat, 25th Sep 2021 4:44 pm
“mak, so what you and your fellow anti-vaxx paranoids are saying is the overlords plan is to kill the majority of the population via vaccines?”
Yes, of course! They want to get rid of the stupid, dumbed down, hypochondriacs first. Seems like they are succeeding in the Western countries. Here, not so much. Since the other 160+ countries have to wait for the GMO-JAB, most will be spared the culling because the whole pile of bullshit will collapse before they can be jabbed.
I did not read your rant beyond the first sentence as I knew it too was just a word salad from one of those sheeple mentioned above.
BTW: Our caretaker’s family (7 adults of all ages) had the flu last month. They took Ivermectin and other aids, and all are back to normal now. Including his 74 year old mother. No “vaccines” needed. He never got it or the symptoms were so mild he didn’t notice. He has a retarded son caused by a vaccine when he was 2 years old. They learned about “vaccines” from Billy Gates a long time ago. So did I.
BTWBTW: Did you ever consider that the idea is to kill off the world’s biggest consumers? Ruin the Western economies and systems? Food for thought. Pass the popcorn.
Dr. Joseph on Sat, 25th Sep 2021 4:46 pm
To Cloggi….
I have been saying this over and over and again…..
energy is not the problem as we can use nuclear etc. The problem is fuel (petrol, diesel etc).
Even if we took this eventual fuel problem into consideration 10 years ago it would still be too late now to manufacture hydrogen plants, to manufacture and install battery chargers, to use land for ethanol production and then to convert all vehicles.
Why? The magnitude of it all.Think about it…there is over 800 million vehicles worldwide plus thousands airplanes , military etc and thousands of ships that need fuel.
So it is not an energy issue per se it will be a fuel issue and a big one at that.