Page added on October 26, 2018
The oil market could be in for a surprise when U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude exports are implemented in 10 days, according to Hedgeye Risk Management LLC.
Traders who expect the U.S. to hand out waivers allowing certain nations to continue buying oil from the Islamic Republic, “are making a huge miscalculation,” Joe McMonigle, head of energy policy at Hedgeye, said in a note.
“We see more than a 50 percent chance of an early enforcement of Iran sanctions to send a message and incentivize others to get Iran imports to zero,” McMonigle said. “We think this will come as a shock to oil markets.”
Oil prices this month have tumbled from their highest levels in almost four years, in part on speculation that waivers could blunt the impact of sanctions. Hedgeye sees that reversing, with the loss of at least 1 million barrels-a-day of Iranian exports boosting Brent crude by $5 a barrel. The international benchmark could even hit $90 a barrel for the first time since 2014, before settling back to around $85, McMonigle said.
47 Comments on "Trump Admin May Stun Iran Oil Waiver Seekers"
Chrome Mags on Fri, 26th Oct 2018 1:15 pm
Should be interesting, one way or another. If Iran can get around the sanctions by moving their available oil, but if they can only move 1/2, then oil price will surely rise. This is Trump rolling the dice, because if price at the pump rises too high, it may be offset by the benefit to short term GDP from borrowing a lot more money than usual to fund the massive corp./super wealthy tax cuts. Or worse, if price at the pump, which here in No. CA is close to 4 a gallon goes to say $5.50 a gallon, then we could roll into a winter recession.
It’s also possible if Iran gets wholly around this and can sell most of it’s oil, Trump will opt militarily to bomb, bomb, Iran.
Antius on Fri, 26th Oct 2018 4:26 pm
The Dhimmi European court rules against freedom speech.
https://www.westmonster.com/european-court-insulting-prophet-muhammad-not-free-speech1/
I do not regret that the UK will be leaving the jurisdiction of this useless institution.
makati1 on Fri, 26th Oct 2018 6:58 pm
It’s fun watching the US slip slidin’.
“Go ahead, blame Powell. Don’t tell anyone that foreign buying of Treasury debt has been cut in half this year and keep it a secret that the dollar share of world FX reserves has shrunk to a 5-year low of 62.5%. The USD role as the reserve currency is on its last legs.”
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/global-bloodbath-world-stocks-puke-over-8-trillion-as-us-markets-collapse_10262018
”
As the middle class disintegrates and poverty grows, more Americans than ever are becoming dependent on the government just to survive. Today, we live in a country where most workers do not earn enough to support a middle class family, and we are seeing the homelessness crisis spiral out of control in major cities on both coasts.”
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/10-numbers-that-prove-that-we-are-rapidly-becoming-a-nation-of-government-dependents_10262018
“One of the most expensive places to live on the globe, San Francisco, has been bombarded with fecal matter that they cannot seem to control. As disgusted residents continue to put up with the high costs of living and deteriorating state of the cities public places, little can actually be done except alerting others to the existence of feces. The “San Francisco Poop Map” and a fecal matter “heat map” created by a local realty service as a way to use information provided by the city’s 311 services to map out areas of the city where poop is a prominent feature, is another way to warn others of locations where human feces has been spotted.”
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/san-franciscos-new-app-snapcrap-lets-users-report-public-feces_10242018
The shit is hitting the streets…er…fan in the US. The collapse is now visible in more ways than one. The only shit I have ever seen on Manila streets was an occasional dog pile and that was rare.
makati1 on Fri, 26th Oct 2018 7:23 pm
Terrorist America: Weekend reading, if you dare.
““The West dares to talk about ‘environmental damage’ here? Yet they have already ruined, thoroughly poisoned and literally liquidated some of the most pristine parts of the world that I know: Borneo, Papua, the Democratic Republic of Congo! How dare they?” But they do; they dare, and still getting away with it.
The nihilism, smear, filth that pours from the muzzles of the West and its regional servants, but it cannot deter this revolutionary optimism, which is so clearly detectable. It is simply beautiful to watch both Chinese and Laotian people working side by side, for a better world.
What did the countries that are attacking this tremendous effort, ever do for Laos? What has the West done for the people here? It colonized and enslaved Laos. And then, in one prolonged and truly incomprehensible horror show, carpet bombed, for years, the entire nation, murdering hundreds of thousands, without even declaring war against it!”
https://journal-neo.org/2018/10/26/laos-china-is-building-west-is-destroying-and-spreading-nihilism/
Learn some real history, Americans. See what is done in your name and paid for by your own sweat.
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 26th Oct 2018 8:14 pm
Russian Oil Chief Sees ‘Major Imbalances,’ Rising Prices From U.S. Sanctions
https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-oil-chief-sechin-sees-major-imbalances-rising-prices-resulting-from-us-sanctions-iran-venezuela/29564774.html
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 26th Oct 2018 8:15 pm
Mak
Enough with your self righteous ranting and fake news..Go change your diaper you sick old has been.
Davy on Fri, 26th Oct 2018 8:38 pm
“Rising Prices From U.S. Sanctions”
SLOB, what about that big bad recession coming in 19? I think that might be a bigger fish that means just the opposite.
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 26th Oct 2018 8:59 pm
The Shale Boom Calmed Oil Markets, but for How Much Longer?
Supply worries are back: As U.S. bonanza nears limits, the world is thirstier than ever for crude
For the past decade, enough oil has flowed from America’s shale boom to allay worries that demand for the world’s most important commodity would outstrip supply.
Now, new volatility in global oil prices—which are up 15% since the start of the year—signals that the calming effect of the shale bonanza is reaching its limits.
For perspective on shale’s impact, rewind to 2007, when some industry leaders saw world demand hitting a wall once it rose to 100 million barrels a day—a level they thought supplies would have trouble matching.
“Where is all that going to come from?” said James Mulva, the former chief executive of ConocoPhillips, that year, when the world produced and consumed about 85 million barrels a day.
In August, global oil demand reached 100 million barrels a day, and the world hardly noticed. What happened? Shale.
Using techniques such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, U.S. oil drillers figured out how to get crude oil from ultradense shale rocks in North Dakota, Texas and Oklahoma. U.S. oil output rose from 5 million barrels a day in 2007, when Mr. Mulva raised his concerns, to a record of nearly 11 million a day in August, a remarkable increase that has rarely been replicated anywhere in the history of oil.
While this has helped the world meet rising demand for years, it cannot go on forever. Signs are mounting that shale won’t keep growing at the same rate in the U.S. Drillers face pipeline bottlenecks moving crude out of West Texas. This week, Halliburton Co. Chief Executive Jeff Miller said its oil-producing clients were facing “budget exhaustion” and he expected some to take extended breaks from drilling new shale wells. That is coinciding with warnings of plateauing, or even declining, production elsewhere in the world.
All the while, global economic growth has been strong for several quarters and oil demand continues to grow. Since its last year-over-year decline at the end of 2011, oil demand has grown annually by 1.5 million barrels a day, according to International Energy Agency data.
The steady upward march of oil demand has left oil markets prone to price swings and spikes. The price of a barrel of Brent crude, the leading global benchmark, is up to near $77 a barrel, from $67 at the beginning of the year.
If U.S. production fails to grow at recent rates, it is far from clear that the world’s two other oil superpowers, Russia and Saudi Arabia, can pick up the slack. Russia is already pumping 10.8 million barrels a day of crude, a level unseen since the Soviet Union. Saudi Arabia, currently at 10.4 million barrels a day, is headed toward record-level output.
“The Saudis are just about out of spare capacity,” said Robert McNally, a former energy adviser to President George W. Bush who heads the Rapidan Energy Group, a Washington consulting firm.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said this week, according to Russian news agency TASS, that the country would bump up its production to 11 million barrels a day to cool off the oil market, although some oil observers wonder if the kingdom would be able to fulfill this promise.
Meanwhile, exports from two other key oil-producing nations are falling.
In the midst of an economic meltdown under President Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela, the country with the world’s largest oil reserves, has seen its production fall to 1.2 million barrels a day today from 3.2 million barrels in 2006, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil sector are set to take effect Nov. 4, barring companies from buying Iranian exports. Oil traders are still assessing how effective those sanctions will be at crimping Iran’s oil industry, but analysts say they could remove anywhere from 1 million to 1.5 million barrels a day from global oil markets.
“This is the year geopolitics came back to the oil markets and it is back with a vengeance,” said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. In recent weeks, the oil market has carefully watched growing strains in the U.S.-Saudi relationship over the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
The impact of Iranian sanctions or Venezuela’s falling output would have been muted a couple of years ago, when supply was plentiful. The rising demand means this is no longer the case.
“Geopolitics matter more when markets are tight,” said Sarah O. Ladislaw, director of the energy and national security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
There are so far no signs of any actual supply squeeze and some believe that without the current geopolitical uncertainties, oil prices would still be stable. “Based on market fundamentals, there is absolutely no reason oil prices should be at this level,” said Ali Moshiri, chairman of Amos Global Energy LLC, a Houston-based oil producer and a longtime Chevron Corp. executive.
But if oil demand continues to rise—and Iranian exports are curtailed—prices could rise dramatically. A couple of years ago, such a rise might have been short-lived as shale producers accelerated operations and added more oil to the global market.
Geopolitical shifts also make for uncertain longer-term forecasts and price swings. While the U.S. hardline approach to Iran could lead to a rise in oil prices now, down the line the trade policies could erode oil demand and lead to future price drops.
For the U.S. to pursue both Iran sanctions and toughening trade policy at the same time “is a really big risk,” said Philip Verleger, an energy economist. “If we’re not careful, we could have a repeat of 2008 when oil prices started at $90 a barrel, went up to $140 and ended around $30,” he said.
For years, shale helped keep enough spare capacity in global markets that volatility began to feel like a relic of the past. In the years to come, the world may no longer have that shale shock absorber, ending a relatively peaceful decade in oil markets.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-shale-boom-calmed-oil-markets-but-for-how-much-longer-1540546200
Cloggie on Fri, 26th Oct 2018 9:16 pm
“I do not regret that the UK will be leaving the jurisdiction of this useless institution.”
As if the UK would never introduce these kind of rulings:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2016/11/03/islam-making-untouchable-says-national-secular-society-louis-smith-ban/
UK officialdom covered up mass sexual abuse of white British children for decades because the perps were f* muslims.
Nevertheless, these kind of rulings are indeed disastrous and are worthy of a 1789/1989-style revolution against a criminal neo-bolshevik establishment that tries to replace us with these muslims, after they ruined white reproductive capacity by promoting feminism, easy faultless divorce, gay martiage, porn, gay pride parades, etc.
makati1 on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 1:09 am
Decaying America is not improving after five years of “growth”.
“All over America, formerly prosperous communities are being transformed into crime-infested wastelands of poverty and despair. Of course the most famous example of this is Detroit. At one time, Detroit was the greatest manufacturing city that the world had ever seen and it had the highest per capita income in the entire country. But now it has become a rotting, decaying hellhole that the rest of the planet laughs at. And of course Detroit is far from alone. There are hundreds of other U.S. cities that are suffering a similar fate. In this article, the focus is going to be on Camden, New Jersey, but the truth is that there are lots of other “Detroits” and “Camdens” all over the nation. Jobs and businesses are leaving our cities at a staggering rate, and what is being left behind is poverty, crime and extreme desperation.”
http://www.alt-market.com/articles/1901-camden-new-jersey-one-of-hundreds-of-us-cities-that-are-turning-into-rotting-decaying-hellholes
Prove that even one US city has had a major improvement since this article was published.
You cannot.
Antius on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 2:59 am
“It’s fun watching the US slip slidin”
Makati you fool. Those that run the US have never been wealthier. What is happening here if little people suffering on an enormous scale. People that ran into misfortune, lost their jobs and homes and ended up living on the streets with no way out. That is never a fun thing to see. It could easily have been you or I and still could be.
Amerikka is a shit hole country on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 5:35 am
“What is happening here if little people suffering on an enormous scale.”
Good. I hope you all die a painful death. You’ll all make better fertilizer than you did human beings.
Cloggie on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 5:52 am
“. At one time, Detroit was the greatest manufacturing city that the world had ever seen and it had the highest per capita income in the entire country. But now it has become a rotting, decaying hellhole that the rest of the planet laughs at. And of course Detroit is far from alone. There are hundreds of other U.S. cities that are suffering a similar fate. In this article, the focus is going to be on Camden, New Jersey, but the truth is that there are lots of other “Detroits” and “Camdens” all over the nation.”
Yes makati, but are you honest enough to openly state WHY that happened?
Spoiler: race, RACE, RaCe, rAcE, rACe
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_Nationality_Act_of_1965
America signing its suicide note:
https://goo.gl/images/VU6cWH
Who signed it? Texan Jew LBJ, who landed in his job after he was personally involved in killing Hitler admirer JFK.
Who had been pushing for the immigration act of 1965 for a century?
http://www.kevinmacdonald.net/immigration.pdf
Davy on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 6:03 am
The US is also reinventing itself but you stupid binary hateful old men say nothing about that. The both of you are not very intelligent because intelligence is balanced. Neither of you has a balanced bone in your body. Both of you are off in the deep end of unreality which is stupidity. You are smart enough to play games here but intelligence does not play games with the truth. Intelligence is powerful and humble. Intelligence is not used for personal gain as you to idiots do. Intelligence is respected and revered because it is the quest for the truth that gives us meaning. Meaning is what gets us through our difficult existence. You two rancid old men are corrupting the truth instead for your own self-serving goal.
Cloggie on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 6:48 am
The US is also reinventing itself
Touche, point for you.
https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2018-04-30/american-car-continues-to-fade-as-ford-drops-small-models
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/planetpolicy/2018/06/01/one-year-since-trumps-withdrawal-from-the-paris-climate-agreement/
https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/15/17977596/donald-trump-climate-change-hoax-60-minutes-interview
Cloggie on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 7:05 am
Tony Abbott and the Anglo globalist creed:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/10/tony-abbott-how-to-save-brexit/
Former Australian PM advises the UK to get tough with the EU and if necessary accept a no-deal Brexit as an acceptable outcome.
As a former prime minister of Australia and a lifelong friend of your country, I would say this: Britain has nothing to lose except the shackles that the EU imposes on it. After the courage shown by its citizens in the referendum, it would be a tragedy if political leaders go wobbly now. Britain’s future has always been global, rather than just with Europe. Like so many of Britain’s admirers, I want to see this great country seize this chance and make the most of it.
There you go!
The British empire, including Australia, has meanwhile accepted being absorbed in the American empire after WW2 and has accepted that the empire, dominated by Anglosphere, has a “globalist calling”, which in real terms means that the world should become one big corporation and market, where everybody talks English and where borders will become ever less relevant and humans are seen as “resources” to keep the great globalist capitalist machine going, irrespective of their background. And since almost all migration takes place from the non-white world to the (formerly) white world, it is inevitable that the white world disappears, Anglos first.
That is, if we listen to the likes of Abbott.
We shouldn’t.
Meanwhile in Germany, with crucial vote in Hessen tomorrow, the Greens all of a sudden, out of pure opportunism, criticize Merkel’s immigration policies, they themselves have so far supported:
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/robert-habeck-kritisiert-angela-merkels-fluechtlingspolitik-a-1235464.html
The AfD is polled for 13%, coming from 0%. The Greens for 18%.
boney joe on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 7:14 am
“Those that run the US have never been wealthier. What is happening here if little people suffering on an enormous scale. People that ran into misfortune, lost their jobs and homes and ended up living on the streets with no way out. That is never a fun thing to see. It could easily have been you or I and still could be.”
Thank you for pointing this out, Antius. Too often we forget until reminded.
Blue Tsunami on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 8:02 am
Remember this from Davy on 10-25:
“This bombing event has all the hallmarks of a false flag conveniently placed before the midterms. This after the Supreme Court fiasco of lies and deceit which was a bold faced attempt a slander to achieve a political end. I am all for cherished liberal values but I am dead set against this activity. We must stand up to it and defend the constitution. The thieves are being exposed and their time is near. Their lies and brazen disregard for the checks and balance of powers will likely be terminated with a midterm win or not. Trump may be disgusting to liberals but this behavior is far and above disgusting. This behavior is an existential threat to the government that provides are stability.”
Another Davy conspiracy theory bites the dust as the truth emerges:
From the Florida Sun Sentinel:
“A Florida man has been arrested in connection with the suspicious packages and mail “bombs” that were allegedly sent to prominent Democrats and CNN over the last two weeks.
Cesar Altieri Sayoc, Jr., 56, of Aventura, was arrested at an AutoZone in Plantation, Florida today. DNA evidence was reportedly used to link Sayoc to the packages.
A registered Republican and President Donald Trump activist, Sayoc has been arrested at least 10 times according to the Florida Department of Law Enforcement, once in 2002 for making a bomb threat and most recently in 2015 for a probation violation.
That registration was current as of Sept. 30, 2018, according to state voter files.”
Davy, you possess so much hate in your heart that you are desperate for bad news to reflect on the Democrats. Instead, you end up discrediting yourself.
JuanP on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 9:20 am
Antius “What is happening here if little people suffering on an enormous scale. People that ran into misfortune, lost their jobs and homes and ended up living on the streets with no way out. That is never a fun thing to see. It could easily have been you or I and still could be.”
Yes, totally. I get sick when I see homeless people; I particularly hurt when looking at homeless women, children, families, elderly, and disabled people. The feeling of impotence at the magnitude of the problem is overwhelming. I help as I can knowing things will get so much worse in the future that it is mostly pointless. But, should we stop fighting battles because we can’t win the war? If decent people give up all hope is lost for sure.
Davy on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 10:07 am
“Another Davy conspiracy theory bites the dust as the truth emerges:”
Wow, did you just get the news? You are a few days behind. This is not over yet stupid. You do realize that this could be a set up…right or maybe you are not that smart.
Who the frig is Blue Tsunami, is that the new SLOB handle or maybe sloppy joe?
I also said this:
“Lowy said Sayoc had “trouble conforming” and “didn’t fit in.” The lawyer said he was not surprised the explosive devices his client is accused of assembling and mailing did not explode. He questioned Sayoc’s ability to successfully devise and execute such a scheme.”
https://tinyurl.com/y748jrrv
IOW, the guy is likely not bright enough to do this complicated scheme. This is the perfect extremist liberal “SOROS” false flag conveniently right before midterms. It is this type of shit that makes me wonder about the Democratic Party and the extremist liberal fringe that are now in control of it.
There I posted it twice for you Der hund or sloppy joe. You two are bad about double postings like you are covering all the feeds…DUMBASSES
Davy on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 10:09 am
“Yes, totally. I get sick when I see homeless people; I particularly hurt when looking at homeless women, children, families, elderly, and disabled people.”
Says the wealthy playboy living in a highrise condo on Miami Beach. GEEZE
Davy on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 10:12 am
More fake davy comments
Here we go again on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 10:17 am
Wavy Davy…no WHIINING PUTZ
Go and milk your goats
I AM THE MOB on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 10:50 am
New virtual reality game..”Off duty police officer”
https://i.redd.it/aspketnxrqu11.jpg
Davy on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 11:16 am
2nd hole, go choke on a chicken bone. That would be par for your mini golf course.
Davy on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 11:18 am
BTW, we know it is your dumbass and not a hijacked comment because you have your stupid golf course pic as your member pic.
Here we go again on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 11:25 am
That’s where you graze and screw your goats dumnasx …big baby
Davy on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 11:26 am
More fake Davy comments
Davy on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 12:09 pm
“That’s where you graze and screw your goats dumnasx …big baby”
yea, and you jack off watching you pervert
Here we go again on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 12:44 pm
Right on your tongue…lickeeadick
Davy on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 1:25 pm
Mini golf, you must be into porn.
I AM THE MOB on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 1:46 pm
Another right wing terror attack (massacre)..
Here we go again on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 2:00 pm
Wavy Davy is into Animal love…when’s you wedding to that lovable Goat of yours
Davy on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 2:03 pm
SLOB the MOB is there a coincidence that a few minutes before you hijacked my handle? This is something a antifa probbie would do to feel the real antifa feeling. Maybe I was too hard on noise1. Others think this deviant is you also.
Davy on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 2:06 pm
Mini golf is into beastiality too. Lol you are one depraved golfer.
I AM THE MOB on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 2:20 pm
I bet one of these days Clog goes batshit and murders a bunch of innocent people..This is where paranoid and delusional thinking that you.
I bet he does it when the oil starts to run out..He will go and shoot up a gas station attendant..NO YOU ARE NOT RUNNING OUT!
Davy on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 2:23 pm
Hey SLOB the MOB, I asked you a question are you the board deviant?
Cloggie on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 2:24 pm
“Another right wing terror attack (massacre)..”
This time a neck beard.
In contrast to this Chief Seatle, the neck beard knew where to hit.
#WhiteCompetenceInAction
More rumblings announcing the coming earthquake. It looks like your first strike against Russia will have to be deferred to later.
Davy on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 2:25 pm
Your problem is you are getting lazy just like criminals do over time and why they get caught.
Cloggie on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 2:28 pm
“I bet one of these days Clog goes batshit and murders a bunch of innocent people..This is where paranoid and delusional thinking that you.”
No, I am specialized in propaganda. I give you interpretation of events, explain history to you, draw maps of how the world will look like in the future, self-fulfilling prophecy, etc, etc.
I AM THE MOB on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 4:00 pm
Trump voter logic
https://i.redd.it/0mzhb3yz8su11.png
They are so dumb and deluded its almost unbelievable..
Davy on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 5:16 pm
My problem is that I believe I’m exceptional. I’m not. I’m just a big old smelly turd that’s passed it’s prime.
boney joe on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 8:46 pm
“You do realize that this could be a set up.”
DavyTurd doubling down on another of his conspiratorial nonsense stories to discredit the Dems.
But he’s really, according to him, “neutral, fair, balanced”.
He’s a delusional mental case, as most posters already know.
Free Speech Message Board on Sat, 27th Oct 2018 9:35 pm
Instead of saying that the US is the land of the free, why not just cut the bullshit and put every American in prison when they’re born?
sum on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 11:42 am
All should remember Trump plays with three dices, the third one is in his sleeve. Once he rolls it there will be no more Islamic republic left on the earth. Free Iran Free = Free world.
Davy on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 11:53 am
LOL, neder brings out is sock puppet in an attempt to play games. Neder, it is Sunday evening over there. Go out have a beer and some food. Relax a little. We have enough stupid games going on here without your “sum” sock BS….
Davy on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 11:55 am
one..two..three
Neder will be one the board accusing me of his “scum” sock puppet. Like clockwork right neder!