It’s been 10 years since a U.S. financial shock turned into a crisis in the global financial, market and economic system. On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy as the shock waves from subprime mortgages rocked the entire financial system, shattering confidence and leading to an economic downfall.
Regularly paying attention to financial news reveals one thing for certain: shocks to the global system happen all the time. Many of these shocks are absorbed by the system without much disruption. Recent examples of shocks might include last year’s escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and North Korea, the U.S. Fed beginning to reverse QE (quantitative easing), or the rapid unwinding of the short-volatility trade that took place earlier this year.
A shock turns into a crisis when the system is unprepared for it. The system is often at its most vulnerable near the end of the global economic cycle when excesses have built up and managing risks may have been neglected. Since we have likely reached the later stages of the cycle, it is now a good time to assess how well the system is prepared for the shocks that lie ahead and where the biggest vulnerabilities may lie.
Hundreds of shocks turned into relatively few crises that hit stocks
Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg data as of 8/16/2018.
Better prepared for some shocks
The global economic, financial and market system now seems better prepared to manage the shocks of the past were they to repeat in the future thanks to: stable energy supplies, low inflation, “circuit breakers”, few fixed exchange rates, a lack of extreme valuations, lots of corporate cash, and stronger banks.
1. Stable energy supplies – A frequent source of shocks that the system has been vulnerable to in the past has been abrupt shifts in the supply of oil: the Arab oil embargo in 1973, Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and the U.S. shale oil boom in 2014-15. Each of these lead to very big moves in the price of oil, up or down. Fortunately, today’s increased economic efficiency with regard to oil, as you can see in the chart below, and the growth in non-OPEC supply (notably from the U.S.) would likely have limited the vulnerability of the system to the shocks in 1973 and 1990.
Oil consumption relative to GDP continues to decline 
Source: Charles Schwab, World Bank data as of 8/19/2018.
2. Low inflation – Inflation remains low and well-contained on a global basis. Markets reflect a high degree of confidence in central banks to stay ahead of the curve on inflation based on inflation forecasts embedded in bond yields and economists’ forecasts. This marks a stark contrast to soaring inflation among many countries in the 1970s as central banks got behind the curve on inflation. This forced an abrupt shock on a vulnerable global system as the Federal Reserve aggressively hiked rates into the double-digits in 1979-80 to end the cycle of spiraling inflation at the cost of a global bear market and recession.
Inflation (CPI year-over-year % change) for selected countries
Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg data as of 8/19/2018.
3. Circuit breakers – The so-called “circuit breakers” would have made the stock market less vulnerable to the selling forces that drove the October 19, 1987 stock market crash where the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 508 points, or 22.6%, the biggest one-day decline in the history of the stock market. A similar one-day drop in the Dow today would be almost 6,000 points.
Then, an options technique referred to as “portfolio insurance,” which hedges a portfolio of stocks by short selling stock index futures, depended on the ability to sell more as the market declined. This allowed the drop to feed on itself and overwhelm the trading systems. To avoid such selling pressure in the future, circuit breakers were implemented in 1989 across all exchanges which halt trading for periods of time when the stock market hits certain percentage declines. The periodic “flash crashes” we have seen since then have been reserved to very short intra-day moves.
4. Few fixed exchange rates – The fixed exchange rate regimes that fed the 1998 Asian crisis have all but completely vanished. A major difference between the Asian crisis of 1998 and today is that most emerging markets (EMs) have floating rather than fixed exchange rates, limiting a vulnerability to shocks. Floating exchange rates mean that shocks can be absorbed over time instead of hitting suddenly when multiple currencies devalue by a large amount all at once as we saw in Asia during the fall of 1998. Also, EM current accounts are now in balance, on average, rather than in deficit as they were in 1997-98 when they were dependent upon foreign lending to sustain their trade deficits, as you can see in the chart below. Finally, EMs have much greater foreign currency reserves that can be used to defend their currencies than they did 20 years ago.
Current accounts in balance
Nine crisis-prone countries included in average: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey.
Source: Charles Schwab, International Monetary Fund data as of 8/19/2018.
5. Valuations not at extremes – There are many measures of stock market valuations. On balance, those valuations are above average, as is typical after an extended period of growth, but not at extremes or as broadly above average as they were in 2000. Extreme valuations make the market vulnerable to a shock in the form of missing lofty expectations. Both the higher level of valuations and the number of industries that had extreme valuations in 2000 compared to today can be seen in the chart below. The economic vulnerability to the 2000 shock was increased by how much investment had poured into intangible goodwill as opposed to productive assets as the valuation bubble inflated.
Valuation comparison by industry: March 2000 peak and July 2018
Price-to-earnings ratio on next twelve months earnings estimates for each of the 66 industry groups that make up the MSCI AC World Index for March 2000 and July 2018. The two industry groups with PEs exceeding 100 appear at top of scale.
Source: Charles Schwab, Factset data as of 8/18/2018.
6. Lots of corporate cash – Companies have lots of cash relative to history according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This lack of a vulnerability, in our view, that in the past has led to the need for forced sales of assets to support companies’ core businesses may help keep a shock from developing into a crisis. It also suggests the potential for corporate share buybacks that might limit the vulnerability of stock prices to investor selling pressure.
7. Stronger banks – In our opinion, banks are less vulnerable today than they were ahead of the 2008-09 financial crisis and the 2012 European debt crisis. Most importantly, there has been a reduction in risky activities, including sub-prime mortgage lending. There have also been substantial regulatory and institutional changes which aim to address some of the systemic weaknesses that contributed to the global financial crisis, these include: the establishment of new regulatory institutions, bank stress tests and increased capital requirements, bank taxes and fees, “bail-in” provisions, increased savings protection, and altered incentive structures. There is further progress to be made, especially in Europe where the banking system is still not integrated. But it’s clear that on measurable benchmarks banks are much better prepared. For example, banks are much better capitalized than in 2008-09 and 2011-12 crises with Tier 1 capital ratios considerably higher than they were going into past crises, as you can see in the chart below.
Domestic banks Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets
Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg data as of 8/15/2018.
Increased vulnerability to other shocks
The global economic, financial and market system now seems better prepared to manage the shocks of the past were they to repeat in the future. But there are other increased vulnerabilities that may make future shocks turn into a crisis:
- High debt levels could magnify a shock from higher interest rates.
- Political fragmentation may impair an effective response to a shock.
- Dependence on international sales may mean more vulnerability to a shock from trade conflict.
- Little ammunition left in the form of monetary and fiscal stimulus may limit the ability of policy to mitigate a shock from an economic slowdown.
- Rising inflows into passive investments might amplify the market volatility from a shock.
Let’s look at each of these vulnerabilities.
1. High debt levels – Global debt has swelled to 225% of GDP reaching $164 trillion, nearly $50 trillion above the levels that preceded the financial crisis (data is for 2016—the latest year for which totals from the IMF are available). Debt has grown sharply from $62 trillion in 2001 and $116 trillion in 2007 just ahead of the global financial crisis, as you can see in the chart below.
Global debt has nearly tripled since 2001
Source: Charles Schwab, International Monetary Fund data as of April 2018.
While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts the U.S. as the only advanced economy that will see a further increase in debt-to-GDP ratio over the next five years, as you can see in the chart below, more than one-third of developed economies have debt-to-GDP levels above 85%–three times worse than in 2000.
IMF expects debt-to-GDP to worsen for the U.S. 
Source: Charles Schwab, International Monetary Fund projections as of 4/23/2018.
While a high debt burden isn’t necessarily a problem by itself, it increases the vulnerability of the system to a shock—in particular, a shock that would lift interest rates. Central banks’ QE (quantitative easing) programs helped ease the cost of higher debt burdens by keeping interest rates low, but those programs are winding down.
In theory, all that debt means the potential losses from a rise in interest rates would be more costly than in the past, especially combined with a stronger dollar pushing up the cost of dollar-denominated debt outside the United States. In reality, it is hard to draw hard conclusions as to what impact an interest rate shock would have on the increasingly indebted global economic and financial system due in part to some of that increase in debt being held by central banks that aren’t leveraged or marked to market on their holdings and refund excess interest payments back to the government, unlike traditional financial institutions. For example, U.S. Treasury yields jumped by about one full percentage point and the dollar soared during 2013’s so-called “taper tantrum” without the shock turning into a crisis. Nevertheless, increasingly high debt burdens represent an increased vulnerability to a shock.
2. Political fragmentation – The political establishment has frayed considerably in almost all major economies since the global financial crisis. Populism of both the far right and far left has been on the rise making decision-making, and even assembling governments, harder to do. The U.S. appears to be stepping back from its post-WWII role as a stabilizing force and organizer of global crisis responses. The result may be that the willingness or ability of governments to mount an effective response to a shock is impaired and could lead to a crisis.
3. Dependence on international trade – After a steady rise over many decades, more than half of the sales of the companies that make up the world’s stock market (MSCI World Index) now come from outside their home country, according to Factset data. Even domestic sales are impacted by increasingly interconnected global supply chains resulting in greater vulnerability to shocks from bottlenecks or border issues than in the past.
Companies in most countries get most of their sales from outside their borders
Based on sales of companies in MSCI China Index, MSCI India Index, MSCI USA Index, MSCI Australia Index, MSCI Japan Index, MSCI Canada Index, MSCI Korea Index, MSCI Hong Kong Index, MSCI Taiwan Index, MSCI Switzerland Index, MSCI United Kingdom Index, MSCI France Index, MSCI Germany Index, MSCI Netherlands Index.
Source: Charles Schwab, Factset data as of 8/19/2018.
4. Less ammunition to fight a downturn – There is little room for governments to use increases in public spending or central banks to ease monetary policy in response to a shock in order to fight an economic downturn. The pre-crisis 2007 U.S. budget deficit of $161 billion, or 1.1% of GDP, pales in comparison to this year’s projection of $804 billion, or 4.5% of GDP. In Europe, with the exception of Germany, there is very little room for governments to engage in fiscal stimulus. Quantitative easing has left central bank balance sheets stuffed with nearly $15 trillion in assets (see chart below) and interest rates are still close to record lows—with policy rates still negative in some countries.
Central bank balance sheets have bloated since 2008-09 global financial crisis
Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg data as of 8/19/2018.
While a downturn that could require as much stimulus as the financial crisis is unlikely, the vulnerability posed by limited ammunition to fight a downturn could lengthen and deepen the effects of the shock.
5. Rise of passive investing – It is unknown if the rise of passive investing presents a vulnerability to the system, but there is no doubt it represents a change. By extrapolating the trend in passive investing, Moody’s Investor Service forecasts passively invested assets to exceed those actively invested by the end of 2021.
Passive may exceed 50% market share by 2021
Source: Moody’s Investors Service Calculations for base case forecast dated 2/2/2017 available here: http://www.n3d.eu/_medias/n3d/files/PBC_1057026.pdf
Passive investing is a strategy typically implemented by holding securities in line with their representation in an index, offering a diversified and low-fee portfolio. However, some fear that the mechanical investment rules of passive investing may give rise to distortions in the pricing of individual securities and might reduce diversification while amplifying investors’ trading patterns on the overall market.
Different vulnerabilities may mean different risks
Market watchers tend to look for the signs that in the past signaled a shock was developing into a crisis. Yet, there are some reasons to think that the probability of a repeat of a past crisis or something similar has eased. The changes we have seen should help reduce the vulnerability of the global system to shocks like those of the past.
Of course, risk has not been entirely eliminated from the system. Vulnerabilities have shifted which may make the shocks that pose the greatest risk of a crisis somewhat different than those of the past. Of these, the potential risk posed by a shock from higher interest rates coupled with a stronger U.S. dollar may pose the greatest threat to a vulnerable financial and economic system.
makati1 on Sat, 1st Sep 2018 6:39 pm
Suckers! All the Market Casino “investors” drooling over all the ‘good news’ propaganda put out by these snake oil salesmen deserve what is coming.
My estimation is that the SHTF in the US first, hardest, and brings it down, permanently. At least I hope so for the sake of the rest of the world. Tuesday would be ok with me.
Boat on Sat, 1st Sep 2018 10:05 pm
Mak
After 5 years of Tuesdays it might occure to you your conspiracy mental type thoughts ended up wrong. How’s those open windows and fans doing.
makati1 on Sat, 1st Sep 2018 11:39 pm
Boat, and tomorrow may just prove that I have always been right. Just because it hasn’t happened…yet… does not means it is not going to happen. It only means that TPTB have been able to keep the game going longer than thought possible by every trick in the book. They want to bleed you dry and then crash what is left of the system. They will still own the physical things of importance. You will own nothing. A few days before the crash of 29′, the newspapers and bankers were saying that the boom would never end…but it did.
As for open windows and fans, they are doing fine. Temps in the mid 70s at night, upper 80s during the day. Light rain occasionally or a thunderstorm to cool things down. A typical August day in PA where I grew up, WITHOUT A/C. Bermuda shorts, tee shirt and bare feet. No need to wear more. Oh, and sandals for town, which I rarely visit. That is typical weather year-round here.
BTW: I noticed a hurricane brewing in the Atlantic, just where they usually do and then head for Texas. Maybe a week to wait? None have come close to the Ps this year. All go north to Japan. I hope they keep doing that.
https://earth.nullschool.net/
Are you prepared?
Davy on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 6:05 am
“BTW: I noticed a hurricane brewing in the Atlantic, just where they usually do and then head for Texas. Maybe a week to wait?”
Way off Billy. I know US bound hurricanes delight you but get your facts right.
https://tinyurl.com/y82n67rq
marmico on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 8:14 am
makati1 moved to the peens because a ladyboy will suck his 75 year old limp dick for $5 US (275 peso). What a loser.
fmr-paultard on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 8:22 am
gosh aswang you’re getting more and more extreme with your anti american rantings. i’m a tard and a former paultard and i’ve been here before. having watched “der untergang” i know exactly how you feel like you were under the bunker and the noise is not bomb but artillery. when there’s artillery it means the knock is at the door.
then you recruit nazi tards and your sock puppets …everyone is geting angrier without getting their candies. supertard and his moderate agenda is WINNING!
Here we go again on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 8:23 am
A double click on the Feds computer mouse and all will be forgiven, tee off at the clubhouse is on an hour after that, next
Sissyfuss on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 9:17 am
Limits to Growth cannot be assuaged by money printing. Humankind is on the road downward by almost all measurements with only the propagandized stats as proof that growth is still viable. Schwab can’t sell degrowth or sustainability and the masses can’t handle the truth. Riding on this runaway train with a cat on my lap, as someone would bemoan.
The last drop on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 9:28 am
Sissypuss, the rich and elite will be well cared for as shown by Cheeto Trump in his emergency order to freeze the pay of Federal workers due to his out of control deficit.
This is just the start on the war of the rip raft by the elite.
Wait till the food stamps and welfare checks get cut because of emergencies.
It will be gradual and thus tolerable.
DerHundistLos on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 9:41 am
Did anyone honestly expect a different appraisal from a Wall Street firm? If the author of this cornucopian nonsense penned an honest prognosis, the next inbox email would have come from Charles saying, ‘don’t let the door hit you on the ass on your way out.’
Notice, too, how the analysis is limited to financial risk with nary a mention of the multiple tipping point environmental catastrophes getting worse by the day.
onlooker on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 10:17 am
Derhund, no sabes, the Economists and people in the financial world don’t pay heed to the Environment. It is considered as externality
Definition: a side effect or consequence of an industrial or commercial activity that affects other parties without this being reflected in the cost of the goods or services involved–
Well, guess they forgot that the Economy is a subset of the Environment.
makati1 on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 8:47 pm
Coming to America? “One moment you’re working for some kind of money wage in a fully monetized economy; the next you’re living in a company town, buying your groceries with scrip, and you can’t leave without your boss’ permission.”
Already here: “In America today, supposedly the most prosperous society ever to exist on earth, nearly a third of families report experiencing economic hardship. Sixty percent—60 percent!—say they could not cover an unexpected expense of $1,000, and nearly 40 percent have less than $500 in savings. People with good insurance get billed $100,000 for having a heart attack. People commute four hours a day because they can’t afford to live in the cities where they work.”
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/capitalism-is-beyond-saving-and-america-is-living-proof/
Slip slidin’…
Bloomer on Sun, 2nd Sep 2018 11:58 pm
The biggest risk I see is the US China trade wars will continue to escalate. The result is a lose lose situation where business and consumers will pay higher prices for goods and services.
Forced to tame inflation, the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. Thus the catalyst to explode the giant asset bubble that has been 9 years in the making. Look out below.
makati1 on Mon, 3rd Sep 2018 12:08 am
Bloomer, I agree mostly with your scenario. My only exception is that the US will be the big loser in the trade war, not China. China is picking up new consumers all over the world and does mot need the US. However, the US does need the stuff China makes. Interesting times.
Bloomer on Mon, 3rd Sep 2018 12:21 am
Many US wholesalers and retailers earn their livelihood purchasing cheap Chinese goods then reselling to American consumers with huge markups. So yes Makati we are definitely in interesting times.
Cloggie on Mon, 3rd Sep 2018 1:29 am
The biggest risk is coming from the destabilization of the US political system, that is the ongoing battle between Trump and his white voter base against the globalist deep state and political left. There is no way to solve this conflict other than through violence. White America doesn’t want to be taken to the cleaners and put itself at the mercy of “minorities” and become the new Indians.
German conservative politician Willy Wimmer, former defense secretary in the nineties in a Kohl government (so no internet net kook with an edgy opinion), who is pro-Trump and pro-Putin, predicted last week that the US is heading towards a mega-crisis in 2-3 months time and said in [9:30] that the US increasingly is heading towards civil war:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvkEG7fc8GM
That is where the next crisis will come from.
Davy on Mon, 3rd Sep 2018 6:23 am
“My only exception is that the US will be the big loser in the trade war, not China. China is picking up new consumers all over the world and does mot need the US. However, the US does need the stuff China makes. Interesting times.”
Billy, China is losing right now or don’t you follow the news? There is a marked slowdown in China along with depressed asset markets currently and part of this is the Trump tariff effect. The US needs some China products. Consumers and producer prices will rise somewhat. Price rises depend on how far this trade war goes. Much of the goods can be made at home or sourced abroad eventually. Very few services come from China. China can source US products elsewhere including food but what China will find difficult is replacing the US import volumes it vitally needs to keep its high growth needs going. This is especially with a global economy stalling. You of course are blind to these things being an extremist with a rabid anti-American agenda.
Davy on Mon, 3rd Sep 2018 6:29 am
“The biggest risk is coming from the destabilization of the US political system, that is the ongoing battle between Trump and his white voter base against the globalist deep state and political left. There is no way to solve this conflict other than through violence”
Nonsense, the system is correcting itself and there has been little violence to date. There is more to the US than what you describe above. The US is a democracy that is a mess but it is still working. You need to look to your Europe that is being ripped apart by demographic tensions. You are not adapted to these tensions like we are.
“German conservative politician Willy Wimmer….predicted last week that the US is heading towards a mega-crisis in 2-3 months time and said in [9:30] that the US increasingly is heading towards civil war:”
Here we go again the 2-3 month crisis thing. I am going to save this BS nedernazi for the records and let you explain yourself in a few months.
Davy on Mon, 3rd Sep 2018 6:48 am
“Dollar Poised To Soar As China Refuses New Plaza Accord”
https://tinyurl.com/y9sce2nj
“The Federal Reserve monetized debt. It took existing debt and swapped it for Federal Reserve notes. The effect was not a resumption of credit growth to pre-crisis levels because banks create new money when they create new credit. Even with massive federal deficits in the wake of the 2008 crisis, deflation in the financial and household sector overwhelmed credit growth. As the federal government eased its credit growth, the economy barely picked up the slack. Credit growth remains at levels associated with recessions prior to 2008. The Federal Reserve did achieve a transformation of debt into equity. Instead of making new loans, money flowed into stocks. The wealth effect caused by rising stock prices is a fraction of the wealth generated by productive credit creation. How much money flowed into stocks? Until the 2016 presidential election, the U.S. stock market moved in lock-step with the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, so much so that the chart below only has one axis. The percentage changes in the Fed balance sheet and S&P 500 Index are too close to be a coincidence. How did market participants behave in response to Fed policies? First they expected hyperinflation. Commodities ran up into the first inflation hysteria of 2011. Then it all fell apart. Inflation was forecast again in 2014. Then it all fell apart. Inflation was forecast again in 2017/8 and we don’t have the full results yet, but the gold market is telling me it’s all falling apart again. Aside from betting on inflation, hot money poured into emerging markets. Money flowed into China. The Chinese growth story fell apart in 2011, 2014 and again in 2018. Resource exporter Brazil saw its currency tumble and it may be headed lower still as another EM crisis forms.”
“Economic growth makes up substantially more of China’s nominal GDP increase and that is reflected in a stronger economy, but the growth of credit relative to nominal GDP is similar in both countries. The relative strength in China is wholly dependent on the quality of that GDP though. If you believe GDP is overstated or of low quality (ghost cities), the strength starts fading. Nobody in the world wants to pay the price of their errors. The solution everywhere is trying to add more debt to overly indebted nations, economies, corporations and consumers. For various reasons including demographics and absolute debt levels, the U.S. (in aggregate) refused. American banks retreated from eurodollar funding after 2008 and the Europe after 2011. The financial system is moving in a deflationary direction, but “everyone” believes inflation is right around the corner because central bank policies are laying the groundwork for higher inflation. The flaw is there’s no catalyst. Base money isn’t multiplying into new credit. Each round of QE (and the Chinese stimulus burst in 2016) is better understood as preventing a deflationary collapse.”
“Bringing Socionomic theory into it, I expected a big run in the U.S. dollar in part because I do not believe there will be international cooperation. The U.S. and China will not agree to a new Plaza Accord and the euro might be losing members. Political intervention won’t stop the rise of the U.S. dollar. Central bank intervention won’t work either because if the Fed is cutting rates, it means the global economy is weakening and bond prices are probably rising (if they’re falling its an even worse scenario for everyone). The U.S. dollar will rise as more “short dollar” positions blow up.”
Davy on Mon, 3rd Sep 2018 7:04 am
“China’s “New Silk Road” Project Hits Debt Jam”
https://tinyurl.com/y95efrdo
“President Xi Jinping’s “Belt and Road” trade infrastructure project could be hitting significant bottlenecks as some countries begin to sound alarms regarding the massive debt loads their governments are incurring.”
“Already, some Chinese-led projects have experienced high levels of complaints that they are too expensive and give little work to local contractors. In response, some governments including Thailand, Tanzania, Sri Lanka and Nepal have halted, scaled back, and or renegotiated projects with Beijing.”
“In Djibouti, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the African country faces a “high risk of debt distress” as its public debt soared from 50 percent of GDP in 2014 to 85 percent in 2016. Next week, a group of African leaders will gather in Beijing for an economic conference which will include talks on the “Belt and Road” initiative. On Friday, foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying denied that Beijing is strategically implanting huge amounts of debt in its trading partners to eventually expect default and acquire the country’s assets for pennies on the dollar. “It’s unreasonable that money coming out of Western countries is praised as good and sweet, while coming out of China it’s sinister and a trap,” she said. Stevenson-Yang said China’s loans are recorded in dollar terms, “but in reality, they’re lending in terms of tractors, shipments of coal, engineering services and things like that, and they ask for repayment in hard currency.” Five years into China’s debt-fuelled “New Silk Road” initiative across many countries in the Eastern Hemisphere, it seems as a handful of governments are mounting complaints against Beijing for inducing a debt trap that strips their countries of its critical assets.”
makati1 on Mon, 3rd Sep 2018 7:25 am
Davy, long rants denying that the world is moving East and the Us is toast, does not change anything. You can try to kill the messenger, but the facts are the facts. The Us is dying/committing suicide.
You can suck up all the USMSM Koolaid you want, but it doesn’t change anything. Trump is the best thing that could have happened to kill America faster. A few more threats, tariffs, and broken trade deals will only hurry the end. Tomorrow would be fine with me.
Davy on Mon, 3rd Sep 2018 7:37 am
“Davy, long rants denying that the world is moving East and the Us is toast, does not change anything. You can try to kill the messenger, but the facts are the facts. The Us is dying/committing suicide.”
Ah, who has the long rants and endless redundant reference pukes with the only commentary “slip slidin”? I suggest you debate the material billy instead of whining that your extremist agenda has been moderated. Slip slidin as a comment is not satisfactory.
“A few more threats, tariffs, and broken trade deals will only hurry the end. Tomorrow would be fine with me.”
Where are the numbers or examples billy? You don’t have them do you? The east and the west is in decline. You do a wonderful job with your distorted western view but you “NEVER” show the balance to acknowledge the east is in decline also. This type of behavior is easy to moderate and it makes you look intellectually foolish.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 3rd Sep 2018 8:18 am
China studies ‘White Trash’ to understand Trump
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-studies-white-trash-to-understand-trump-20180827-p5004u.html
Cloggie on Mon, 3rd Sep 2018 8:32 am
Difficult to see how hard Brexit can be avoided. EU will not even accept May’s plan. Core message: if you want to be part of our common market you have to accept ALL the rules. May already signaled she is willing to step down and compromise.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6125827/Ministers-tell-Tory-Remainers-concessions-Mays-Chequers-plan.html
It is unlikely Tory hardliners will let her.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6124919/Boris-Johnson-slams-Theresa-Brexit-compromise.html
Barnier said he is not interested in extending the negotiation date, indicating he is running out of patience and ready to call Britain’s bluff.
More headaches for London. Scottish independence pole 47-41 yes.lol
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6126201/Scottish-voters-splitting-United-Kingdom-Brexit-poll-finds.html
MASTERMIND on Mon, 3rd Sep 2018 9:03 am
Clogg
Nobody cares about your daily fail tabloid bullshit..They are black listed by wiki..
You can’t help it though, you have a low IQ and are easily duped..
Bloomer on Mon, 3rd Sep 2018 10:21 am
Oil hits 70 dollars a barrel today.Rising oil prices also puts more pressure on consumers to make ends meet. But hey we all got uge pay raises when corporates got their tax cuts.. not.
Cloggie on Mon, 3rd Sep 2018 11:50 am
China studies ‘White Trash’ to understand Trump
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-studies-white-trash-to-understand-trump-20180827-p5004u.html
Your interpretation. What they really do is studying the run-up to CW2, just like in Ukraine and everywhere else. Everybody in Eurasia knows what is coming…
You want to see white trash and what they think? I’ll give you white trash:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3fyO9TeyO8
Meet the real deplorables, the losers of the US multicult system. Interesting is the monologue between [3:47] and [12:39]… “I want to see this country split up in hundreds of pieces”.
(Many in Eurasia want that too, why should it always only be the US plotting for regime change elsewhere?)
That’s how most of them think. And the law of history is: “the future can be read from hearts today”.
Davy on Mon, 3rd Sep 2018 12:37 pm
Cherry picking the extremes again neder and you wonder why your message is irrelevant.
Antius on Tue, 4th Sep 2018 5:49 am
A good article from the New York Times; an often questionable source of information, though in the case, probably not far off the mark.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/01/opinion/the-next-financial-crisis-lurks-underground.html
Shale oil is one of the many bubbles that have been inflated by loose fiscal policy.
Davy on Tue, 4th Sep 2018 6:42 am
“This is What 4 Million Solar Panels Look Like From Space”
https://tinyurl.com/z266n3t
“On the Tibetan Plateau in eastern China, 4 million solar panels silently soak up the sun as part of the Longyangxia Dam Solar Park. It’s the largest solar farm in the world, spreading over 10 square miles of the high desert landscape. The complex sprung into existence in 2013 and has been rapidly expanding ever since. Satellite imagery curated by NASA’s Earth Observatory chronicles its growth from a cluster of panels to a sprawling solar farm that looks like a giant, angular thought bubble as of January 2017.”
“The installation currently has the capacity to generate 850 megawatts of electricity, or enough to power roughly 140,000 U.S. homes.”
Free Speech Forum on Tue, 4th Sep 2018 12:30 pm
If you love tyranny, the US is a paradise now.
If you love freedom, the US is hell now.