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Page added on August 20, 2018
The Sudden Death of Peak Oil – 4.5 Trillion Barrels of Oil Left
Google trends – nobody is interested anymore in the topic of “peak oil”
Technology is not just expanding our daily oil production; it also continues to increase the amount of oil and liquid fuels we can count on for the future.
In 1981, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that remaining global recoverable crude and condensate resources were 1 trillion barrels; today, the IEA estimates that it is 4.5 trillion barrels – enough to meet global oil demand beyond the 21st century. By 2040, the amount of resources yet to be produced will still be far higher than total production prior to 2040, even with a 20 percent rise in global oil demand.
[reason.com] – U.S. Oil Reserves Bigger Than Saudi Arabia’s
Note that the IEA doesn’t state at what price levels these 4.5 trillion barrel can be recovered. Regardless, there is enough oil left to set up a renewable energy base. The challenge is not to find new oil, the challenge is not to use it.
40 Comments on "The Sudden Death of Peak Oil – 4.5 Trillion Barrels of Oil Left"
George Straight on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 9:10 am
Yippie, that is GOOD headlines…time to shut down this rag blog with the constant bickering between Davy, Cloggie, Juan, Sissypuss, ROCKMAN, Rocdoc, Marimco,
and too numerous to mention other morons, that think they are right.
Davy on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 9:31 am
George/shortens, are you maybe off your meds? You are changing your name daily with the same avatar. Why not say something instead of whining?
JuanP on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 9:38 am
George has the right to express his opinions just like you do, Exceptionalist. You just can’t stop making friends, can you? You are such a fucking sensitive bitch. You’ve never met this guy; why do you get upset because he calls us morons? You have a very fragile ego! LOL!
Davy on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 9:47 am
Look in the mirror Juan. Wow, you know you have met a dumbass when you read the above. “Zoom” right over the peon’s intellectual level. Still waiting on a comment out of the Greggie Juan troll duet.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 10:00 am
Is The World Sleepwalking Into The Next Oil Crisis
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/03/23/is-the-world-sleepwalking-into-an-oil-crisis/#509edc8b44cf
MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 10:02 am
Oil discoveries in 2017 hit all-time low –Houston Chronicle
https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Oil-discoveries-in-2017-hit-all-time-low-12447212.php
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-minister-sees-end-of-oil-price-slump-1476870790
Saudi Aramco chief warns of looming oil shortage
https://www.ft.com/content/ed1e8102-212f-11e7-b7d3-163f5a7f229c
Halliburton CEO says oil will spike due to oil shortages by 2020 after Industry Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-12/halliburton-sees-2020-oil-spike-after-industry-cuts-2-trillion
HSBC Global Bank: 81% of world liquids production already in decline and world oil shortages ahead
https://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017
UBS Global Bank warns of industry slowdown and world Oil Shortages by 2020
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/12136886/Oil-slowdown-to-trigger-supply-crisis-by-2020-warns-bank.html
MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 10:17 am
2020s To Be A Decade of Disorder For Oil
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/2020s-To-Be-A-Decade-of-Disorder-For-Oil.html
All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discoveries Drop
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-27/all-that-new-shale-oil-may-not-be-enough-as-big-discoveries-drop
Wood Mackenzie warns of oil supply crunch and world oil shortages around 2020
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Next-Oil-Price-Spike-May-Cripple-The-Industry.html
People are almost completely ignoring a looming crisis for oil
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-future-of-oil-supply-and-demand-2016-9
MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 10:19 am
Peak oil is not a myth -The Royal Society of Chemistry
https://www.chemistryworld.com/opinion/peak-oil-is-not-a-myth/7102.article
The future of oil supply –The Royal Society of Science http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/372/2006/20130179.short
Has Petroleum Production Peaked, Ending the Era of Easy Oil?https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/has-peak-oil-already-happened/
Peak Oil may keep Climate Change in Check
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/peak-oil-may-keep-catastrophic-climate-change-in-check/
A Regional Oil Extraction and Consumption Model. (Dittmar 2017)
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.03150.pdf
HSBC Global Bank: 81% of world liquids production already in decline and world oil shortages ahead
https://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017
A global energy assessment (Jefferson 2015)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wene.179
Projection of World Fossil Fuels by Country (Mohr, 2015)
https://www.scribd.com/document/375110317/Projection-of-World-Fossil-Fuels-by-Country-Mohr-2015
Economic Vulnerability to Peak Oil (Kerschner 2013)
https://www.scribd.com/document/375485924/Economic-Vulnerability-to-Peak-Oil-Kerschner-et-Al-2013
Forecasting OPEC crude oil production using a variant Multicyclic Hubbert Model (Ebrahimi 2015)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0920410515001539
Aging giant oil fields produce more than half of global oil supply and are declining (Hook, 2009)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421509001281
The End of Peak Oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials (Chapman, 2014)
https://www.scribd.com/document/375110698/The-end-of-Peak-Oil-Why-this-topic-is-still-relevant-despite-recent-denials-Chapman-2014
MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 10:19 am
USA DOE Study: Peaking of World Oil Production (Hirsch, 2005)
https://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf
USA GAO Study: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply. Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf
Australian Government (Leaked) Study: concludes world peak oil around 2020
https://web.archive.org/web/20170415190328/https://www.aspo-australia.org.au/References/Bruce/BITRE-Report-117-Oil_supply_trends-2009.pdf
German Military (leaked) Peak Oil study: oil is used in the production of 95% of all industrial goods, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments
http://www.energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf
China Government Study: China’s Oil Production is About to Peak in 2018 & Coal in 2020 (Wang, 2017)
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12182-017-0187-9
Edinburgh Study: Only 10 years of UK’S North Sea Oil and Gas Remaining (Thompson, 2017)
https://www.ed.ac.uk/news/2017/uk-oil-and-gas-reserves-may-last-only-a-decade
rockman on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 11:23 am
George – The Rockman does not “bicker”. He states documented FACTS. So yes: they are always correct given that they are FACTS.
Why you seldom see rebuttals to the Rockman’s posts. LOL.
rockman on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 11:27 am
BTW: I didn’t notice anyone point out the obvious FACT: PO is not about reserves. It’s about the global oil production rate.
Just the same amateur mistake once again repeated.
Uncle Bill on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 11:34 am
ROCKMAN doesn’t bicker!?
Sure….in your little world of make believe
I suppose….
JuanP on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 11:59 am
Delusional Davy “Look in the mirror Juan. Wow, you know you have met a dumbass when you read the above. “Zoom” right over the peon’s intellectual level.”
More kindergarden bullying from the board’s biggest troll.
Cloggie on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 12:42 pm
BTW: I didn’t notice anyone point out the obvious FACT: PO is not about reserves. It’s about the global oil production rate.
Just the same amateur mistake once again repeated.
Let me come to the rescue of the author (who happens to be me btw.lol)… the Rockman is not entirely right of course about PO = production rate, PO is a DATE of maximum oil production rate.
But nitpicking aside, he has to admit that the date of PO and the size of reserves are very strongly correlated. If the likes of Exxon and IEA state that the maximum number of recoverable barrels of oil are in the range of 4.5 trillion (where humanity consumed 1 trillion so far throughout history), it is obvious that the vision as promoted by Heinberg and ASPO-2000, namely that peak oil supply was immanent, can be put ad acta.
And yes, the Rockman is the most civilized and informed person on this board.
Can I have a round of applause please (for the Rockman).
P.S. having said that, he should be more economical with using the word “amateur”.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 12:52 pm
Clogg
The IEA doesn’t state that
Here is the IEA back in 2009 interview.
Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast
“In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years – at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-1766585.html
And here is the IEA currently..The same story as back in 2009..
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
IEA warns of oil ‘supply crunch’ by 2020 with no capex renaissance
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iea-forecast/iea-warns-of-oil-supply-crunch-by-2020-with-no-capex-renaissance-idUSKBN16D1X1
IEA Forecasts Oil Shortages and Sharp Price Rise by 2020 – Nasdaq https://www.nasdaq.com/article/iea-forecasts-oil-shortages-and-sharp-price-rise-by-2020-cm757712
International Energy Agency: Oil price spike coming in 2020
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/09/19/iea-oil-price-spike-coming-2020/679584001/
Exxon and BP are peak oil deniers because they don’t want to scare their investors away.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 12:56 pm
CLogg
Oil has already gone scare since 2006 when conventional oil peaked..That is why the price is over 3 times what it was in the entire 20th century ie supply and demand..You obviously never went to college and studied econ 101..
Too busy watching propaganda videos from amateurs on youtube..
LMFAO!
MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 1:00 pm
Global debt at 240 trillion dollars > global oil shortage and price spike > Global economic collapse > Global societal collapse
People are almost completely ignoring a looming crisis for oil
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-future-of-oil-supply-and-demand-2016-9
Imminent peak oil could burst US, global economic bubble – study
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/nov/19/peak-oil-economicgrowth
MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 1:40 pm
Clogg
I got another civil war article to add to your list
Scholar Warns We Could Be Headed for a ‘Violent Conflict’ Between Republicans and Democrats
https://www.alternet.org/scholar-warns-we-could-be-headed-violent-conflict-between-republicans-and-democrats?src=newsletter1095409
Sissyfuss on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 1:53 pm
So Rockamondo, how many of the 4.5 barrels are economically retrievable and how much am I going to be paying for gas in 2022? And is that 87 octane?
MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 2:09 pm
Sissy
Why do you ask someone who isn’t an expert? If Rockman really was he would cite sources? And if he does work in the industry that means he has a conflict of interest..
Sissyfuss on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 2:10 pm
And Monbiot was correct in stating that there’s enough to fry us all.
Sissyfuss on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 4:06 pm
Stifle, Millipede. Ain’t no more expert than the Roc and the last two questions were for entertainment purposes only and not to be used in a court of law. Go Green.
makati1 on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 6:26 pm
Another piece of shit article about “possibilities”.
If gravity stopped, cows could fly.
If financial councilors are so smart, why aren’t they billionaires and living the “good life” instead of trolling for dollars?
If this forum was monitored, would we have assholes like Davy, MM, etc. to contend with daily for years?
If the moon was made of green cheese, would Craft Foods own it?
‘IF’ and ‘Maybe’ are the worlds of dreamers, not the facts as they exist. The oceans hold more gold than was ever mined, but it is not recoverable. Never will be.
I have often said here that there will be billions of barrels of oil left in the ground when the Age of Petroleum ends and there they will stay, forever. I hope that day soon comes, while there is still some life support left on their planet.
Permavillage on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 7:45 pm
Peakoil is a fact… A fact cannot die
MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 7:58 pm
Fox claims wages are going up. They’re actually falling.
https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2018/08/20/fox-claims-wages-are-going-theyre-actually-falling/221025
Cloggie on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 10:52 pm
Millimind keeps posting moldy links from the Heinberg days that are no more like the Pavlov dog that he is. After 2012 we entered a new world of oil extraction, that oil amateurs like Heinberg or the German army or even ASPO did not foresee. The old peak oil story was about conventional oil only. But that message of depletion doom was made null and void by the rise of non-conventional production methods, best described by Michael Klare as the “Third Carbon Age”, with coal (19th century/Britain) the first and conventional oil (20th century/US) the second carbon age:
https://www.thenation.com/article/third-carbon-age/
In this 21st century, the new message is that virtually endless amounts of carbon reserves exist that with new production technologies can be exploited:
– 4.5 trillion barrels of oil (1 trillion remaining conventional+a few trillion shale)
– tens of trillions of TONS of coal under the North Sea alone that can be gasified
– methane hydrates scattered over the world’s ocean floors 0.5-5.0 trillion ton
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_clathrate#Reservoir_size
The “downside” is that probably the price per kWh from this third carbon age fuel is substantially higher than that of conventional oil, but it is still payable, as the world of the 21st century is literally saturated with energy technologies that all have the potential to save energy. We can do the same things with ever less energy. Important examples: rise of the internet enabling to limit commuting, shared car robots, heat pumps, to name a
few very important ones.
The sufficient supply of kWh’s from carbon fuel is guaranteed, exit wild peak oil/peak carbon supply stories. Heinberg had his few years of fame but can now safely retreat into Trump bashing. Heinberg was majestically, nay titannically wrong.
The depletion story has been replaced by the climate change story. There is more carbon left than the atmosphere can handle. There is “enough to fry us all”. This has been fortunately recognized by the Paris Climate Accords. The peak oil supply story may be dead, but it doesn’t matter much, because we can’t actually afford to use these new carbon supply riches, although they buy us some valuable time.
Enter renewable energy. They come without environmental problems, as far as we can see now and prices per kWh are meanwhile competative enough for frontrunners in Europe to achieve 90% renewable new capacity installation, guaranteeing a renewable energy base in a couple of decades, at least in Europe. Remaining problem: storage, but that problem is recognized and addressed, where the options are endless.
Morale: don’t worry (too much) about energy supply, worry about the fate of the planet and humanity (environment, nukes, degradation, overpopulation, rise of the third world at the cost of the developed world).
MASTERMIND on Mon, 20th Aug 2018 11:59 pm
Clogg
Here is a link from a few months ago
Is The World Sleepwalking Into The Next Oil Crisis
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/03/23/is-the-world-sleepwalking-into-an-oil-crisis/#509edc8b44cf
Is that good enough for you Mr Strawman?
And unconventional oil can’t make up for the entire worlds declining conventional legacy fields..
Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html
LMFAO!
MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Aug 2018 12:01 am
Clogg
The End of the Oil Age is Imminent!
Recently, the HSBC oil report stated that 80% of conventional oil fields were declining at a rate of 5-7% per year. This means that there will be an oil shortage of ~30 million barrels per day by 2030 and ~40 million barrels per day by 2040.
http://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017
What is mentioned far less often is that annual oil discoveries have lagged annual production since the 1980s.
https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt
Now, this problem has nothing to do with the recent decline in the oil price, which started in 2014. This has been an on-going problem for the past 30 years. Now, the IEA is predicting oil shortages by ~2020 due to declining exploration.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
Here, the IEA blames this problem on the low oil price. But, this problem started in the 1980s. The problem is geological: we are running out of conventional cheap oil. Shale and tar sands are not the answer, either. Those resources are far too expensive, compared to conventional oil, because the global economy is based on cheap conventional oil. Expensive oil is not a replacement for cheap oil.
Based upon the HSBC report and the IEA, the End of Oil Age will start around ~2020: there will be a dramatic economic depression due to exhaustion of cheap oil. This will cause a global economic collapse.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Aug 2018 12:04 am
clog
The easy oil is gone
Oil discoveries peaked in the 1960’s.
Every year since 1984 oil consumption has exceeded oil discovery.
In 2017 oil discoveries were about 7 billion barrels; consumption was about 35 billion barrels
Of the world’s 20 largest oil fields, 18 were discovered 1917-1968; 2 in the 1970’s; 0 since.
https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt
https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Oil-discoveries-in-2017-hit-all-time-low-12447212.php
Cloggie on Tue, 21st Aug 2018 12:54 am
The easy oil is gone
High hanging fruit is just as tasty and nutritious as low hanging fruit, you only need a higher ladder, but meanwhile we have that ladder.
Oil discoveries peaked in the 1960’s.
Wrong. The fracking industry just announced the existence of 4.5 – 1.0 = 3.5 trillion barrel of oil that can be fracked world-wide.
How about you picking up knitting and stop spreading fake news.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Aug 2018 1:04 am
Clogg
Let me explain this to you again for the thousandth time.
Coal cannot work without crude, crude cannot work without coal, natural gas cannot work without both oil and coal, Shale oil cannot work without any of those, and so on…etc..
Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html
MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Aug 2018 1:07 am
CLogg
And they aren’t going to frack worldwide because they don’t have wall street to fund unprofitable production..And the US is down to one petty region of growth..And its currently stalled out and may not ever increase again..read the HSBC study and listen to the IEA..Shale is a tiny fraction of oil production and can’t make up for all the worlds declining conventional legacy fields..
HSBC Global Bank: 81% of world liquids production already in decline and world oil shortages ahead
https://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017
People are almost completely ignoring a looming crisis for oil
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-future-of-oil-supply-and-demand-2016-9
All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discoveries Drop
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-27/all-that-new-shale-oil-may-not-be-enough-as-big-discoveries-drop
Cloggie on Tue, 21st Aug 2018 1:10 am
Coal cannot work without crude, crude cannot work without coal, natural gas cannot work without both oil and coal, Shale oil cannot work without any of those, and so on…etc..
That’s a shabby, not too bright, low-quality Marxist, who can hardly carry his own weight, like you saying so.
Europe, the source of science and technology…
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/26/origin-scientific-accomplishments/
…says it can have a renewable energy base.
It will.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/renewable-energy-electricity-wind-wave-scotland-climate-change-oil-gas-a8283166.html
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/06/44-wind-denmark-smashed-already-huge-wind-energy-records-2017/
MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Aug 2018 1:16 am
Clogg
You can’t transition transportation because it takes liquid fuels..
‘Silent Sam’ is down: Protesters topple Confederate statue on UNC campus
https://www.wral.com/-silent-sam-is-down-protesters-topple-confederate-statue-on-unc-campus/17783175/
rockman on Tue, 21st Aug 2018 12:26 pm
Sissy – “So Rockamondo, how many of the 4.5 barrels are economically retrievable and how much am I going to be paying for gas in 2022?” I have no idea. And obviously no one else does otherwise they would state that number instead of offering the TECHNICALY RECOVERABLE reserve number. A number, BTW, I have very little confidence in.
Regardless the accuracy of either reserve number has no baring on future production rates (which the basis of PO) nor the future price you’ll pay for gasoline. The POD will determine that price.
rockman on Tue, 21st Aug 2018 12:35 pm
Uncle Bill – “ROCKMAN doesn’t bicker!?” I don’t recall you ever offering FACTS rebutting any FACTS the Rockman has posted, have you?
Talk is cheap from the peanut gallery. Especially words that offer nothing of substance. Ya know, that sounds like bickering to me. LOL.
Cloggie on Tue, 21st Aug 2018 12:49 pm
‘Silent Sam’ is down: Protesters topple Confederate statue on UNC campus
https://www.wral.com/-silent-sam-is-down-protesters-topple-confederate-statue-on-unc-campus/17783175/
Excellent news! Chapel Hill is in NC anyway, or in “Trans-Appalachia”/Greater Baltimore, you can have that anyway; “university”, hahaha, in America, hahaha, Marxist territory.
As long as you stay away from the Mississippi River Delta, which is reserved for Euro’s, we’ll get along fine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_River#/media/File:Mississippiriver-new-01.png
I see that the statue is taken down by mystery meat like Ashwan Awan. That’s fine, anything that pisses whitey off is good and is backed by the 2 billion of Eurasia, who will ensure that nobody in the US is going to win the coming standoff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-Uuqv3kogc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12Szp1Ozp6A
MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Aug 2018 12:58 pm
Clogg
You don’t speak for 2 billion people you low iq imbecile..
Maybe you should worry about your own backyard while your bridges are collapsing..
lmfAO!
JuanP on Tue, 21st Aug 2018 2:07 pm
Mm “Maybe you should worry about your own backyard while your bridges are collapsing..”
Bridges are collapsing in the USA, too!
MASTERMIND on Tue, 21st Aug 2018 2:17 pm
I have a dream..
https://imgur.com/upload