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Page added on July 16, 2018
The Future of Oil Demand: Peak, Plateau, or Plummet?
Projecting future levels of global oil demand is becoming an increasingly difficult challenge. With the advent of competitively priced alternatives to oil and changing policy prerogatives, some analysts have speculated that oil demand will experience a peak in the near future. This high level of uncertainty for future levels of demand has important implications for both markets and policy.
27 Comments on "The Future of Oil Demand: Peak, Plateau, or Plummet?"
MASTERMIND on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 4:16 pm
The idea that electric cars are lowering demand is ridiculous. Electric cars haven’t made a dent, just a small scratch in oil demand. Electric cars are only 0.2% of light-duty vehicles, and cost so much only the upper 5% can afford them, even with subsidies.
I suspect the peak oil demand idea is one more attempt by the wealthy and powerful to hide peak oil, because peak oil studies have shown that if peak oil were acknowledged, stock markets all over the world would crash since the economy would be shrinking from then on and debts couldn’t be repaid. Credit would freeze and dry up. Panic and social disorder would follow.
https://un-denial.com/2018/07/04/by-alice-friedemann-on-fake-peak-oil-demand/
print baby print on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 4:17 pm
Capitalisam is all about growth .Infinite growth. So there is no such a thing like peak demand . Oil is finite there is peak oil. Incredibly what we do to deceive others even ourselves
print baby print on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 4:22 pm
renewables wind solar etc its not enough plus oil nuclear all that is not enough for us so no way that such a thing as a peak demand exist at all
print baby print on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 4:24 pm
I forgot methane manure oil corn ethanol oil and all other bullshit stories
Cloggie on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 4:31 pm
The idea that electric cars are lowering demand is ridiculous. Electric cars haven’t made a dent, just a small scratch in oil demand.
You are so titanically right here, millimind; where would we be without your intellectual guidance, I’m asking you.
I mean, you are probably not going to believe it but once there were a bunch of weirdos who claimed that it was possible to interconnect the entire world with hand-held mobile devices and that it could be accomplished within a decade!
Obviously these idiots were a danger to society and delivered at the nearest psycho-ward and put in straight-jackets.
https://tinyurl.com/ybf3smaq
Fortunately, nobody is fooling millimind, ooooh no they don’t!
Antius on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 5:20 pm
Frankly, it would help a lot, if people weren’t such fucking morons. Why does anyone need a 15mpg SUV to drop the kids at school? Why would they even want one? Back in the mid 80s, my parents had a 70mpg Japanese car that got us about wherever we wanted to go. We drove from North Kent to Southern Spain in this little car, more than once. It was a distance of about 1000 miles, some 1600km, in each direction.
If I lived on a farm and had to cart heavy machinery and tools about, I could see the appeal. But otherwise, they do nothing but burn money. I wonder sometimes why we spend so much time thinking about how to save idiots from the sickness of their own minds.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 5:31 pm
clogg
I worked for AT&T for five years in the mobile division..I assure you I know much more about them than you do..And electric cars have been around for over 100 years already..Unlike the mobile phone..And we have done scientific studies on how long a transition would take it..
UC Davis Peer Reviewed Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives
(Malyshkina, 2010)
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q
University of Chicago Peer Reviewed Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117
twocats on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 5:38 pm
center for stupidity and idiotic studies puts out another propaganda piece – meanwhile US is struggling to increase LTO output.
https://shaleprofile.com/index.php/2018/07/16/us-update-through-march-2018/
november 2017 was higher than march 2018. oops. hopefully the revisions and late data will show an increase or its LOOK OUT ABOVE! followed quickly by… LOOK OUT BELOW!!
MASTERMIND on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 5:52 pm
Twocats
BP said a few weeks ago productivity had peaked for US shale..And Vitol the worlds largest oil trader said last year they thought US Shale would peak this year..
fmr-paultard on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 5:55 pm
dear gentle readers
civilization is in terminal decline and we are at the late stage. experts such as jay hanson said there’s no way to politik our way out of it. JH is supertard and they are beyond reproach. the following tard is already experience living in failed state of phils.
aswang. solution to social ills is lead poisoning. this is due to lack of economic growth fueled by fossil fuel/oil. this is clearest indication of a failed state. it will be unpredictable going down the peak oil slope and unintended consequences will result that include white meat as aprodisiac
gentle readers, please leave your anger at the door so that you can experience the truth and your humble servant a tard and former paultard can say the truth without encurring your wrath. to that end:
please kick the anti-american dog that i made out of granite. i dressed it up to look like it’s alive.
now get inside without anger thank you
fmr-paultard on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 6:04 pm
dear readers
i don’t need science and figures to tell me that rearranging the deck chairs did not save people on the titanic. this is because we’re all engineers and all possible solution had been exhausted.
some suggest wind turbines but the gigantic energy extracted from offshore winds is making the atmosphere less energetic. this means large swat of land will experience apocalytpic dust bowl. but nature always wind once those turbines break down.
you can’t argue with logic because i’m engaging in basic tard research. i alone asked for evidence of cattle mutilation and all i got was “FBI investigated”. the proof by negation is left as homework.
dissident on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 7:10 pm
Anyone who thinks that current technology would dent world oil demand is detached from reality. As long as the population of the planet increases, oil demand will remain sustained.
Electric cars are a boutique fringe product. Let’s see the oil consumption figures for the USA which show contraction from this mode of transport. Not from the shrinkage of the middle class in the worst jobless recovery of all time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country
So we have 764,700 cars out of a fleet of 253 million (including light trucks).
Antius on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 7:22 pm
“Electric cars are a boutique fringe product.”
At present. But there was a time when all cars were boutique fringe products, owned by wealthy playboys who thought themselves too good for horses. Electric cars have not been more than a niche application, because IC vehicles are better; not because electric cars do not work. Plug in hybrid vehicles could cut fuel consumption dramatically; as most journeys are short enough for battery power alone. It isn’t the sort of exciting revolutionary technology that tech utopians dream about, but it could achieve impressive results relatively soon.
twocats on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 7:32 pm
MM – I’ve been burned too many times into believing something couldn’t be done… to have it turn around and be done. the reserves are there in the permian – it could take US shale to a new high – maybe even 7 mbpd. Some believe this will still happen sometime between now and 2023.
I don’t see how they overcome the staggering declines if its pushed out too far, but hey, on the raggedy edge the desperate humans will probably try anything (except face the reality of the situation – that would be psychotic).
I’m not disagreeing with you – just unsure. And anyway, I’m quite fond of a number of humans and will be a little sad when they perish in the apocalyptic carnage so another year or two isn’t going to make much difference to me.
Sissyfuss on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 9:28 pm
Peak oil demand is so much more BAU than, oh crap, we’re screwed.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 9:31 pm
Electric cars are a fade for rich yuppies that want to virtue signal..And considering you can’t take one out of the city..They are pretty much useless to most people..
dave thompson on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 9:33 pm
Glad to see less sniping in the comments. Peak demand is so much PR-propaganda BS. We are now living on the cusp like we always have,only closer to the edge.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 9:33 pm
Conservatives Are Purposely Making Their Cars Spew Black Smoke To Protest Obama And Environmentalists
http://www.businessinsider.com/conservatives-purposely-making-cars-spew-black-smoke-2014-7
dave thompson on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 9:41 pm
Mastermind come on you do not have to be a conservative to be an idiot.
GregT on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 9:59 pm
Being politically affiliated has far more to do with idiocy, than idiocy has to do with political affiliation.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 10:06 pm
Global Growth Peaked With a Whimper, Not a Bang
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-15/global-economic-growth-peaked-with-a-whimper-not-a-bang
MASTERMIND on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 10:19 pm
Donald Trump is so easily manipulated by a foreign power that he has virtually become Russia’s agent
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-russia-agent-vladimir-putin-joint-press-conference-helsinki-latest-a8450146.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1531784741
Cloggie on Mon, 16th Jul 2018 11:17 pm
Still want to push the idea millimind that Trump is in the neocon bag? No eh? You were wrong, again.
Now what did the German army say again in 2010 about peak oil?
Permavillage on Tue, 17th Jul 2018 10:04 pm
In order to build EV and infrastructure that goes with it, you need oil, because of ores and metals extracted from mines, lubricants, plastics, etc. And peak oil is very close.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 18th Jul 2018 10:26 pm
EU Electric-Car Sale Growth Sputters on Battery, Charging Limits
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-17/eu-electric-car-sale-growth-sputters-on-battery-charging-limits
Duncan Idaho on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 2:21 pm
I wonder sometimes why we spend so much time thinking about how to save idiots from the sickness of their own minds.
We have 7.6 billion homo sapiens on the planet.
It might be time to lose a few idiots— 7 billion would be a start.
It is going to happen anyway- might be best to let it rip!
Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 3:27 pm
“might be best to let it rip!”
A part of me thinks this sometimes you know when I look out at beauty and harmony in nature then see a crowded ugly city. Yet, another part says let’s make the best of it and save who we can. The “RIP” is coming but when and where will it start? It can start anywhere really all locations in this world are at risk. Some more than others but no one is safe. I am now of the opinion we should buy ourselves time and maybe we will wisen up. Maybe a crisis will drive real change. If not change that saves us maybe change that gives us more time to love life.