Oil demand to peak by 2030 due to EV adoption

43 Comments on "Oil demand to peak by 2030 due to EV adoption"

MASTERMIND on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 3:00 pm 



EV’s are a fad for rich people! I cant wait till Tesla goes under to see what all the nerds have to say! LOL .

dave thompson on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 3:16 pm 



More “peak demand” nonsense. Twelve years ahead no one knows with certainty. Although, Guy McPherson is probably closest to the truth.

Cloggie on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 3:22 pm 



“On the double!”

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/19/european-union-votes-increase-2030-renewable-energy-goal-35/

“European Union Votes To Increase 2030 Renewable Energy Goal To 35%“

Where would we be without “Old Europe”, I’am asking you. 😉

Cloggie on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 3:26 pm 



“Lift-off! We have lift-off!”

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/20/norwegian-avinor-bets-local-electric-planes-onboard/

E-planes are expanding and Scandinavians are leading the way (again).

Cloggie on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 3:31 pm 



The British Empire of former fame was built on coal power. Today Britain harvests twice as much from wind as from coal:

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/18/uk-wind-power-output-breaks-record-tops-13-gw/

Jolly good!

Boat on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 3:45 pm 



Clog,

Did you mean dope and slavery?

Boat on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 3:47 pm 



Clog,

Didn’t Poland say there was no way they could be compliant? Any others? Greece?

Davy on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 5:49 pm 



Sure if the stars align right and 2030 comes. These are stupid articles that predict, forecast, and project slop. They are extrapolating goal seeking for an agenda. They are almost always positive with a techno optimistic market driven slant. Unless you can also see the down side these articles are hopelessly flawed. Maybe this will happen if all things stay the same but honest people realize we are facing numerous limits that make 2030 timeframes dubious.

jawagord on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 6:17 pm 



Count on Old Europe to remind us of the Old adage, “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me”? Europe picked all the low hanging fruit in the 1990’s when the Old Soviet bloc countries shuttered their carbon intense industries. Going forward Europe will continually fail to meet CO2 reduction targets due to the mad enviro’s in Germany and France phasing out nuclear power which will be replaced with (hush hush) fossil fuel power.

PARIS (Reuters) – France will revise its carbon emissions target by the end of this year to align it with its pledges in the Paris climate agreement after failing to meet the goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions in 2016, the ecology minister said on Monday.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-carbon-emissions/france-to-revise-carbon-emissions-target-after-missing-2016-goal-idUSKBN1FB2W0

Cloggie on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 7:05 pm 



“Did you mean dope and slavery?”

Eh no, you are confused with the Americans.

Boat on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 7:58 pm 



Clog,

Early Americans were from Europe. Swedes were clean though, they farmed.

Cloggie on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 8:08 pm 



There were never slaves in Europe, unlike in the US.

JuanP on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 8:31 pm 



How stupid and ignorant would I have to be to listen to BofAML? These guys would have gone bankrupt and closed shop ten years ago if the corrupt US government hadn’t bailed them with OUR taxpayers’ money against our wishes. They didn’t see the last crisis coming and they don’t see the next one either. Anyone foolish enough to listen to economists deserves what they get. Talk about being an educated moron! I think that anyone who studies to become an economist has to be mentally defective in one way or another.

JuanP on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 8:35 pm 



Cloggie “There were never slaves in Europe, unlike in the US.” You should know better than saying never. Your affirmation is erroneous, of course. There were slaves in Europe throughout most of its history. You should rephrase that. I try to avoid using words like never or always because they are usually not the right word.

JuanP on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 8:36 pm 



If you study the origin of the word slave you will find out that it is European.

Cloggie on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 8:49 pm 



It is true that in ancient times EVERYBODY, Romans, Egyptians, Arabs, Africans had slaves. But in the modern era, that is after 1500, there were no slave-markets in Europe, unlike America.

But it is easy for moderners and their 100-150 fossil-based virtual energy slaves per capita, to moralize over times where everybody had just himself to rely on, or his master rather.

Oh, and in hindsight, slavery was the best thing that ever happened to the black race. It provided them a short-cut from stone age and cannibalism, straight into modernity in a matter of a few hundred years. But they don’t need to thank us for it, because lifting up Africans was never the intention, just exploitation.

There is only one thing that truly liberates man and that is technology and the energy sources it operates upon, fossil or renewable.

????????????????????????????????? on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 9:08 pm 



Clog, Americans were never slaves until 1913. Most Europeons were slavse for most of history. And now you are becoming the gayest most, optimistic slaves on your shithole continent ever.

If an average cum guzzler is rich enough to afford an EV then zhe can afford a hover car. And that will guzzle a lot of earthly cum. You dumb ass retards you think you are some kind of think tank? If your techno future is bright there will be more wealth. Wealth means more energy consumption. Tech never slows energy consumption. Only poverty or asceticism can do that.

Mad Kat on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 10:56 pm 



Ah, but, Cloggie, if you have a bank loan, YOU are a slave. Most Westerners are slaves. Color is not important.

If you get anything from your government, YOU are a slave to the government if you want that goodie to continue.

If you have to pay taxes, YOU are a slave to the tax authority unless you have no taxable income or property.

I get Social Security from the US and must file a tax form every year even though I do not live in the US and have no taxable income. I am still a ‘slave’ in that respect, but I have no legal obligations required to continue that SS income except to tell them where to send it. You are a slave unless you are debt free and no taxable income, own no property that can be taxed, etc. Slavery never went away. It just became less visible and the chains are now digital.

GregT on Mon, 22nd Jan 2018 11:56 pm 



“Oh, and in hindsight, slavery was the best thing that ever happened to the black race. It provided them a short-cut from stone age and cannibalism, straight into modernity in a matter of a few hundred years.”

Really Cloggie? You actually said that?

Cloggie on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 12:13 am 



I said: IN HINDSIGHT.

Cloggie on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 12:18 am 




Ah, but, Cloggie, if you have a bank loan, YOU are a slave. Most Westerners are slaves. Color is not important.

If you get anything from your government, YOU are a slave to the government if you want that goodie to continue.

If you have to pay taxes, YOU are a slave to the tax authority unless you have no taxable income or property.

In your view, the only way you are not a slave is when you live in mom’s basement and she comes down three times a day to spoon-feed you, interrupting you with gaming.

Taxes are used to build infrastructure, fund schools and keep old folks like you alive. And yes that needs to be paid for by taxes.

But I’m telling you that being a worker in modernity is far preferable over being a chained slave in some quarry in the Roman empire. And technology makes all the difference.

Cloggie on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 12:21 am 



https://tinyurl.com/ya6fgm3v

+

slavery

=

https://wp.jsstatic.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2014/03/1.jpg

Cloggie on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 12:34 am 



Tech never slows energy consumption.

Completely untrue. Modern household gear and lighting consumes several factors less energy then only 10-20 years ago. Personal transport can be done at a fraction of the current consumption, provided people learn to see their car not as an extension of their d*cks. But especially Americans love to see small cars, or worse e-vehicles, as “gay”. Everybody understands that groceries need to be bought in a pickup otherwise you lose your manhood.lol

Well then, if you want to volunteer to present to the world the largest crash in history, be my guest.

Beer and popcorn.

The tech revolution is spearheaded in Europe, yet electricity consumption is flat for years now with growing population:

https://deepresource.wordpress.com/?s=europe+energy+consumption#jp-carousel-65973

Reason: energy saving is an explicit goal.

GregT on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 1:04 am 



“But I’m telling you that being a worker in modernity is far preferable over being a chained slave in some quarry in the Roman empire. And technology makes all the difference.”

Actually Cloggie, it is energy that makes all of the difference, not technology. (which is also a product of surplus energy)

GregT on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 1:09 am 



“The tech revolution is spearheaded in Europe, yet electricity consumption is flat for years now with growing population:

Reason: energy saving is an explicit goal.”

Real reason; economic depression, masquerading as a recession, due to unsustainable central bank policies.

Mad Kat on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 1:10 am 



Cloggie, but that makes YOU a slave no matter how you pretend otherwise. Try to ‘free’ yourself and see that it is not possible. As long as someone else controls your life you are a slave. The chains are there.

A chained slave in a quarry is only relative to your position. You are stressed out if you cannot pay. You too could end up in jail, lose everything, or worse if you do not kiss your master’s ass financially.

Saying that you get back some of it in the form of roads, etc, is evasion. Roads existed before the taxes or bank loans. They were called trails and evolved from animal trails over the years. Quarry slaves also got back some of their effort in the form of food, shelter and clothing. Their masters, for the most part, took care of them as valuable assets. Your bank/government only considers you as a source of blood to drain for their use.

I have one chain left, but it is likely to remain until my death. That is better than those you have as I could sever that one if I choose. When the US goes down financially, it will probably be severed. Total freedom at last. You have no choice. Total freedom. Something you will probably never know.

Mad Kat on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 1:19 am 



Greg, Cloggie doesn’t want to consider the obvious. Energy use is down in Europe because the consumers are not financially able to consume as much as before, not that there is more ‘efficiency’.

‘Efficiency’ is a sales gimmick, like the sticker on a car that brags about how many kilometers/liter it gets (under perfect conditions on level roads with a 100 km/hr tailwind) not in the real world. lol

Davy on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 4:05 am 



“Ah, but, Cloggie, if you have a bank loan, YOU are a slave. Most Westerners are slaves.”

You are a slave to your social security check

Davy on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 4:07 am 



“But in the modern era, that is after 1500, there were no slave-markets in Europe, unlike America.”

They continue with the lucrative business of capturing and selling them in the Americas. HYPOCRITE

Davy on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 4:13 am 



“Completely untrue. Modern household gear and lighting consumes several factors less energy then only 10-20 years ago. Personal transport can be done at a fraction of the current consumption, provided people learn to see their car not as an extension of their d*cks.”

In theory that sounds true but it has not worked out that way. For the most part what has been freed up in efficiency is consumed by growth elsewhere. There are efficient results with lower energy usage in localized conditions but in aggregate the case has been more energy consumption not less. This might change with behavior through education and demand management but likely will only change with the poverty of decline.

Davy on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 4:23 am 



“ As long as someone else controls your life you are a slave. The chains are there.”
The Filipino police and military control you mad kat or are you special. You are still a slave but somehow think you are special and not.

“Roads existed before the taxes or bank loans.”
Like the kids say “Way What”

“Your bank/government only considers you as a source of blood to drain for their use.”
Nonsense, emotional agenda of claiming western authority is a bad thing completely. Your agenda is a lie. Banks and governments are not bad they are impersonal organizations that are providing a service. It the service is being corrupted for systematic reasons that is life in a system. There are bad among them but like you the bad is with the individuals that make up the whole.

“I have one chain left, but it is likely to remain until my death.”
Yea, mad kat, keep thinking that as you are dragged out of your condo or your fantasy farm shack and killed for stew meat or a few dollars in a collapse coming to your overpopulated Island.

Davy on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 4:24 am 



“Energy use is down in Europe because the consumers are not financially able to consume as much as before, not that there is more ‘efficiency’.”

It is also down from outsourcing dirty industries to dirty Asia.

Davy on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 6:03 am 



The nedernazi want you to think Europe is in a golden decade:
“Berlusconi, Italeave, & How To Checkmate Germany”
https://tinyurl.com/yd3l5xm7

“Euro-nly a Pawn Salvini is out there stumping that the euro is a ‘crime against mankind.’ Mr Salvini said: “I believe that one single currency for 18 economies, each different in its own way, just won’t work in the long term.” But statistics here is more important than anything else. “Since the introduction of the current currency, Italy’s debt has risen by €900bn. This experiment has failed and we should not go any further down this road.”

“Italeave Trumps Grexit Because if Germany tries to play the hardball tactics it did with Tsipras, it likely won’t work in Italy….Salvini, if elected, will be facing the same thing. But will have support from Five Star Movement. So, it will be very hard for him to betray Italy to Brussels the way Tsipras did Greece. In fact, the path of least resistance for him is to call the EU’s bluff and allow the Italian Banks in trouble to fail. This throws the decision back to Brussels to deal with the problem. Because remember one thing, Salvini is right, Italy’s debt is 134% of GDP. Most of the Italian banks are dealing with portfolios with NPLs (Non-performing loans) that top 40%. Italy’s banking system is in terminal decline. The European Central Bank has been propping up the price of Italian sovereign debt as the only effective buyer for nearly a year now.”

“Let’s not forget that the ECB will be forced by The Fed to end its bond-buying program and allow rates to rise. So, when, not if, Italy’s debt situation becomes untenable and another crisis breaks out Salvini would be in a very good negotiating position. Why? Because of the old adage then when you owe the bank a thousand dollars it’s your problem. But when you owe the bank $2 trillion dollars it’s the bank’s problem. And the bank in this case is the ECB along with most of the rest of Europe. The only reason anyone still owns Italian debt is because the ECB has been a buyer. But as the chart above shows, every0ne else has been selling to the ECB for the past two years.”

“Checkmating the Troika So, unless there is the political will to consolidate all of Europe’s debt under one roof, this problem lands squarely at the feet of the ECB, the Bundesbank and the farce that is German politics. This puts the decision on the Troika – The ECB, The IMF and the European Commission — to bail them out directly or kick Italy out of the euro. And that’s smart politics. Make Brussels the bad guy. And Salvini is already playing that tune perfectly. If they were all smart, they would have the Lira ready to deploy if things go south.”

Davy on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 6:13 am 



Mad kat, this might be a pothole on the shag carpet road initiative your proselytize weekly.
“40,000 Indians Flee As Fighting Erupts On Pakistan Border”
https://tinyurl.com/ybbr8ttk

“Along the 786 km-long Line of Control (LoC) which divides the State of Jammu Kashmir between India and Pakistan, sporadic cross-border military gunfire between both countries is not that unusual. However, this weekend, in the region of Noushera, Rajouri and Akhnoor sectors of Jammu and Kashmir, more than 40,000 Indians have fled their homes and shops amid the fourth consecutive day of intense shelling from Pakistani military forces, the Economic Times reports.”

“While the world focuses on the Korean Peninsula for the potential outbreak of World War III, many should redirect their attention to the LoC between the Indian–Pakistan border, as this latest flare-up in military clashes between two nuclear states could spiral out of control.”

Antius on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 9:35 am 



Cloggie wrote: “Completely untrue. Modern household gear and lighting consumes several factors less energy then only 10-20 years ago.”

They are more energy efficient, yes, thanks to better design in the case of white goods and the development of cheap miniaturised LEDs in the case of TVs and lighting. Computers, for the most part, are bucking this trend and seem to be becoming more energy hungry. These improvements were one-time gains. In the design of washing apparatus, they were achieved through the more efficient use of water (which must be heated). But this clearly has limits if you want things clean and free of bacteria. We are not likely to see dramatic improvement in the energy performance of household electrical goods from this point forward. The laws of physics impose their own limitations. Electric motors don’t have much room for efficiency improvements and we are unlikely to develop light sources much more efficient than LEDs anytime soon. And even these improvements were limited in their extent. My electric water heater is already 100% efficient. My microwave oven is about as efficient as the laws of physics allow. My bathroom fan cannot be made much more efficient. My vacuum cleaner could be marginally improved by reducing internal drag, but this is a one-time gain with limitations.

Cloggie wrote: “Personal transport can be done at a fraction of the current consumption, provided people learn to see their car not as an extension of their d*cks.”

That is the great hope going forward and indeed, private transport will not be affordable beyond 2030 if this cannot be done. I have made a lot of calculations around this issue and my conclusion is that it will be almost impossible to produce synthetic fuels at a price comparable to gasoline today ($2/gallon = $0.01/MJ). My favourite idea was to use a cheap electricity source to make hydrogen that is then reacted with coal or biomass to produce methanol in the Fischer-Tropsch process. This is very portable and easily storable and compatible with existing distribution networks and engine systems. This makes an energy transition to methanol quite easy.

Unfortunately, even with electricity at $0.05/kWh and coal at $0.5/Kg, the cost of methanol is $2.50 per gallon, equivalent to $5/gallon-gasoline, when the reduced energy density of methanol is taken into account. That is more than twice as expensive as gasoline, even with optimistic assumptions on the cost of inputs. Pure battery electric vehicles appear attractive from a cost-of-fuel point of view, but have poorer power-to-weight and energy-density (that eats into energy efficiency for long-range vehicles), are very expensive if people insist on range approaching that of an ICE, have high embodied energy and environmental problems sourcing the battery materials.

More efficient cars are a possibility. Trouble is, those pesky laws of physics mean that there are no free lunches. For an ICE car, fuel consumption at low speeds is a function of engine power. That is true for an electric vehicle too. A smaller car and/or a less powerful engine will burn less fuel per mile. But it won’t be as spacious and comfortable, or have the same boot space and may not be as safe in a collision. And with less power-to-weight ratio, it won’t have the same acceleration or top speed. At low speeds, energy consumption is proportional to the mass of the vehicle (simple – force x distance). This can be reduced to a degree, but requires trade-off on car size; safety in a crash and is limited by stability problems. A large, long-range battery immediately works against energy efficiency and power-weight – requiring more power and energy consumption, whether you intend to drive 1 mile or 100 miles that particular day. At high speeds, energy consumption is increasingly dominated by air resistance, which is a function of the square of speed, shape and cross-sectional area. We can play around with those things and make various trade-offs, but we rapidly hit limitations that require us to compromise other performance requirements.

My conclusion is that global car manufacturers have already done a good job up to now, balancing the weight and aerodynamics of vehicles against customer needs and affordability. There may be room for some reduction in frame weight in the future, using composite materials and stronger steels, but stability places limitations on this. Don’t expect future private cars to look radically different to todays cars, as a lot of work has already gone into balancing aerodynamics against passenger comfort and internal space utilisation.

A plug-in hybrid power system appears to provide the best balance between the advantages of electric and ICE systems, whilst minimising their respective disadvantages. This would involve an electric drive system, with a modest sized battery, delivering a range of ~40km and a compression-ignition engine, burning methanol, producing electric power to either charge the battery or directly drive the wheels. Since most journeys are <40km, we get most of the efficiency advantage of the battery electric vehicle, which can be charged with low-carbon electricity. But the battery only needs to be a tenth of the size, since the energy dense ICE is there to back it up on long journeys. The cost of fuel is kept down, as most of the millage the car does in its life is provided by battery power. This keeps cost reasonable all around.

The great thing is that we don't really need any new technology to do this. We have hybrid vehicles on the market right now and we have engine designs that already burn methanol. We do not need a hydrogen distribution network, since we use hydrogen to produce methanol straight out of electrolysis cell. This would be a logistical nightmare and a hydrogen burning engine would have poor power-weight ratio. We do not need expensive fuel cells or other exotic technologies, just a small ICE built into a hybrid electric drive system. In the future, free-piston internal combustion engines will be both lighter and more efficient than the Otto-cycle engine of today. But this can develop as an incremental improvement to an existing system.

Davy on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 12:08 pm 



Excellent summary Antius. You should have your own energy blog. I am sold on your transport ideas for the future mentioned above.

Cloggie on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 12:31 pm 



My conclusion is that global car manufacturers have already done a good job up to now, balancing the weight and aerodynamics of vehicles against customer needs and affordability.

I would like to amend that view a little. They have only scratched the efficiency surface. The next big gain can be achieved from finally drawing conclusions from the fact that the average occupation rate is merely 1.25/car. Why still sticking to the outdated concept of the fifties all-in-the-family sedan?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_1-litre_car

260 mpg or 0.9 liter on 100 km.

Now you’re talking.

I know this is a prototype and is unaffordable, but it shows what is possible, laws of physics be damned.

I think that car robots will catch on in a decade or so. Combined with GPS-enabled mobile phones and corresponding total location awareness, it is possible to optimally distribute an available public car fleet over transportation demand, ensuring minivans to be filled with passengers. Add to that changing frequently and you can bring down fuel consumption considerable as it doesn’t matter much for mileage how many people are in the van.

Cloggie on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 12:50 pm 



“But in the modern era, that is after 1500, there were no slave-markets in Europe, unlike America.”

They continue with the lucrative business of capturing and selling them in the Americas.

Davy and his feigned moral indignation again. First of all the slave traders didn’t “capture” Africans, instead they bought them on African slave markets… from blacks. Price: some glass pearls or little mirrors. In doing so, blacks are just as complicit as everybody else.

https://tinyurl.com/y7yhclkp

Somehow I tend to think that they were better dressed as slaves than at home.

We’re talking about 11 million transatlantic slaves:

http://www.slaverysite.com/Body/facts%20and%20figures.htm

The real champs were the Iberians with half of the trade, next the French and the British and the Dutch had 500k.

Oh and then there is a little detail that is often forgotten, the role of our virtuous Jews in the drama:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1UkVfwjCCw

Muslims btw had ca. 1 million whites slaves in grand total of 13 million.

Slavery throughout history was a universal phenomena and was only ended when America discovered how to exploit oil and it was cheaper to pay him a low wage than to keep the slave on your premises, where you would have to watch them, house them, cloth and feed them.

Now, a westerner has 100-150 virtual energy slaves at his disposal. This makes all this virtue signaling and moral grand-standing laughable.

Antius on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 1:15 pm 



Cloggie, that looks like excellent German engineering and exactly what the world needs. All we need now is a few hundred million of them. The price tag is steep, but I’m thinking that has more to do with lack of scale economy.

Davy on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 1:19 pm 



There is a difference in value for ridership. One rider may have more value than 5 depending on many variables. The reason we drive has different values. Sometimes driving may be vital and other times discretionary. This is demand management issues with behavior and relative value. The issue then expands to localism or a commuter culture. Do we design our culture differently from the ground up or do we try to tweak the current one? Demand management and adapted behavior should be the next step in the quest for the grail of efficiency. Tech is mostly against diminishing returns currently. Much of what I read these days with all the tech we consider the future the costs are far too expensive considering the type of decline likely ahead. Maybe decline is not ahead but if I were a betting man I would not bet against it. This is the critical point against tech solutions. Tech must have a prosperous world to be realized. Behaviors have lots of low hanging fruit. With tech the low hanging fruit has been picked.

Davy on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 1:29 pm 



“First of all the slave traders didn’t “capture” Africans, instead they bought them on African slave markets… from blacks. Price: some glass pearls or little mirrors. In doing so, blacks are just as complicit as everybody else.”
AHH, never captured them?? I think they were obtained in many different ways. You are just trying to do one of those moral white washings thangs. The point is Euros were involved in the trade.

Cloggie on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 2:52 pm 



“The point is Euros were involved in the trade.”

Can’t remember ever to have denied that. In contrast to you, I like to see history as it really was, not the cooked up version of the History Channel you are so fond of.

Davy on Tue, 23rd Jan 2018 3:44 pm 



Neder, likes to white wash culpability by shifting blame or fraudulent history revisions. This is a standard practice of an agenda peddler or snake oil salesman. Neder ascribes to both practices depending on the subject.