This is one of those essays that if read 100 years from now will be seen as either amazingly prophetic or yet another example of the misguided apocalyptic literature emerging in the early 21st century — the way flying cars and armies of rocketmen did in the same part of the 20th.
Our thesis is simple. What is occurred in October 2017 in California and the Iberian Peninsula of Europe was a process of reshaping continental climates as we left behind the late Holocene and passed into the early Anthropocene.
This H-A boundary condition may last not centuries or millennia like the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary (~22000 years) or the Permian–Triassic boundary (10 million years) but could be bridged in decades owing to the magnitude, scope and speed of the triggering mechanisms.
Courtesy of California Department of Water Resources — Florence Low
Inveterate party-goers, we two-legged naked apes heedlessly withdrew 250 million years of fossil sunlight from Earth’s savings account and binged like mice in a corn silo. Then we vomited all that carbon into the atmosphere. It will take a very long time to clean up, even after the mice have long gone.
Climatologist Johan Rockstrom, among others, has used the trough-and-ball analogy to explain how climates shift domain less by gradual invasion than by sudden jumps.
This is also referred to as the tipping points diagram. If you have played the marble race game where you move a steel ball through a maze of holes you know how it works. Raising the incline slowly does not immediately move the marble. Only when the static equilibrium of the marble is overcome as elevation passes through an invisible threshold does the marble suddenly start to roll. Its forward motion is then not easily arrested, demonstrating Newton’s laws about objects at rest and objects in motion. Rockstrom said that global climate may have several equilibrium states, and when you disturb the resting state, it will put climate into motion — several degrees warmer, for instance. At some point the marble will fall into a warmer domain of equilibrium — let say 5 degrees. Everything in nature then retools to conform to that domain.
What seems to us plausible is that at somewhere between 350 and 400 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere, average global climate left its cozy warm resting state and began to roam. As we keep raising greenhouse gas concentrations — now close to 410 ppm and likely to reach 425 in 5 years and 450 seven to ten years thereafter, the marble remains in motion, and picking up speed.
At the next hiatus — an equilibrium of greater warmth — the Sonoran desert of Mexico could extend to within a few hundred miles of the Mississippi at its eastern extent and beyond the Canadian border in places at its northern extent. Reverting to an interglacial past will be the Sandhills region of Nebraska, aided by the Trump/Pence Administration’s lifting of restrictions to the route of the TransCanada Keystone XL Pipeline. California and the American Southwest would be populated by shifting dunes, scorpions and sidewinders. In Europe, the Sahara desert may cross the Mediterranean and extend to the foothills of the Pyrenees, Apennines, Alps and Balkans.
At this, the earliest stage of the H-A boundary, we are witnessing removal of forests to make way for those future deserts. They will not regrow. The soil will be too warm for seed germination. Droughts and fires will continue to periodically sweep away any vegetation that emerges. Eventually the topsoils will erode and the subsoil will turn to fine, wind-borne sand. Anyone foolish enough to build a home in these places will sooner or later watch it burn or blow away.
It’s like President Trump telling a pregnant widow, ”He knew what he signed up for but when it happens it hurts.” When you spend $3.4 trillion tax dollars each year to boost the failing fortunes of companies like Peabody, Exxon and TransCanada, you have to know what you are signing up for.
There is, in all this, a tiny ray of hope. Out there at the edge of the Portuguese high plains, with a faint odor of smoke from a distant fire line, there stand a small group of youth. They are gathered on a farm in the northwest of Quinta do Vale da Lama. They have come from around the world to make a stand.
On November 13 they will host a training session: Campo de Regeneração do Ecossistema — Ecosystem Regen Camp. They are regenerating the mediterranean landscape with mixed dry-fruit orchards, native reforestation projects and transition zones of vegetative swales and hugelkultur, crossing it with approaches that worked for settlers in Nebraska’s Sandhills a century ago, holistic rotational grazing systems, rainwater harvesting, keyline planning, biofertilizers and teas, permanent pastures, living fences, forage banks, and agroforestry edge systems. It’s Permaculture 101, without the college credit.
It may seem Quixotic, given the pent-up anger on Mother Nature’s side, but let us remember that Franklin Delano Roosevelt almost single-handedly halted the Great American Dust Bowl.
FDR established the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) within his first 100 days in office and the Soil Erosion Service (later the Soil Conservation Service and now the Natural Resources Conservation Service) shortly thereafter.
Fires in Portugal, 2017
The establishment of the Soil Erosion Service marks the first major federal commitment to the preservation of natural resources in private hands. Even more significantly, in 1935, FDR initiated the Prairie States Forestry Project to create a “shelter belt” from the Texas Panhandle to the Canadian border. Over the course of the next seven years, the U.S Forestry Service, working in conjunction with the CCC, the newly established Works Progress Administration (WPA), and local farmers, planted nearly 220 million trees, creating over 18,000 miles of windbreaks on some 30,000 farms. The scale of this effort boggles the imagination. It literally changed the face of America and most importantly — along with the introduction of new farming techniques also initiated by the New Deal — stopped the dust storms dead in their tracks.
It bears footnoting that FDR’s shelter belt was also the design of his Agriculture Secretary (later Commerce Secretary and Vice -President) Henry A. Wallace, who might have become the 33rd President of the United States (instead of Harry Truman) had his progressive agenda (universal single payer health insurance, an end to the incipient Cold War and red-baiting, and abolition of segregation) not been opposed by his own party.
The Abraham Lincoln Brigade, 1936
Volunteer foot-soldiers are now rushing to the Iberian salient. Perhaps an Abraham Lincoln Brigade from the USA?. To enlist in the Portuguese workshop register here. The first 30 applicants received will be confirmed (the rest will have to be wait-listed).
If you can afford 10 euros per Month to support this grassroots effort you can join a growing community and become a founding member of the Ecosystem Restoration Camps Foundation. If you don’t have the resources to support but wish to learn about regenerative agriculture and large-scale ecosystem restoration more camps are being built to make this possible, join here.
The movement’s vanguard camp in Altiplano Spain held its first public open day on October 16. The campfires have been lit.
Alone the scale of the problems we face can be overwhelming but together we are a powerful force that can change the world. Lets go camping and restore a little bit of paradise every day.
— John D. Liu
Albert Bates is an Emergency Planetary Technician, founder of Global Village Institute for Appropriate Technology (GVIx.org), and Chief Permaculture Officer for eCO2, a COOL DESIGN services company focusing on climate recovery strategies with high returns on investment.
Bates is almost always a clear voice of the sane.
That is why he is often dismissed.
Apneaman on Sun, 22nd Oct 2017 12:03 pm
California fires: A rising toll in deaths and dollars
“SAN FRANCISCO – The wildfires that have devastated Northern California this month caused at least $1 billion in damage to insured property, officials said Thursday, as authorities increased the count of homes and other buildings destroyed to nearly 7,000.
Both numbers were expected to rise as crews continued assessing areas scorched by the blazes that killed 42 people, a total that makes it the deadliest series of fires in state history.”
“Summer just won’t leave us be. The National Weather Service is forecasting record heat for Los Angeles beginning Sunday and lasting through Tuesday, which could be the hottest day of the heatwave.
Temperatures in some areas will surpass 100, and nights will not provide a lot of cooling, according to forecasters. “We should easily see temps reaching 100 degrees across a pretty wide area in L.A. and Ventura counties, with the warmest day being Tuesday,” according to an NWS outlook.”
Our house burned down in the 1991 Oakland firestorm, and the only thing that stopped it was the fog coming in, otherwise no telling how far it would have burned. Nothing’s been done, nothing, despite 12 fires and 12 blue ribbon panels recommending the eucalyptus be replaced with native vegetation. I think developers like the rebuilding business. Keeps them in jobs.
More importantly, I’ve wanted to buy “the marble race game” depicted at the top for friends and relatives kids, but it’s called something else, that just brings up expensive plastic rube goldberg contraptions, not the boards with the holes in them that you tilt the board to keep the marble from going in.
Duncan Idaho on Sun, 22nd Oct 2017 6:06 pm
I had two houses I lived in in Santa Barbara burn down, and lost a car in the Sonoma Fires.
makati1 on Sun, 22nd Oct 2017 6:28 pm
Another one of those “If only” and “Maybe if” articles. “Give $$$ and everything will be OK” bullshit. We are NOT going to change anything. We are running toward the extinction cliff and it is all downhill. There will be no one here to read anything in 100 years. Maybe not even 50.
Apneaman on Sun, 22nd Oct 2017 8:49 pm
New Fire Danger Threatens to Worsen Most Disastrous Wildfire Season in California History
“A record-breaking heat wave will build over Southern California over the weekend and peak on Tuesday, bringing triple-digit temperatures that could set marks for the hottest temperatures ever recorded so late in the year in the Los Angeles area. Accompanying the heat will be the notorious Santa Ana winds, which will bring a multi-day period of critical fire danger, Saturday through Tuesday.
According to NOAA, the hottest temperatures ever recorded after October 23 in Southern California (along with the Weather Underground forecast for Tuesday) were:
105°F Riverside, 10/28/1915 (WU forecast for Tuesday: 100°F)
101°F LAX Airport, 11/1/1966 (WU forecast for Tuesday: 96°F)
101°F Longbeach, 11/1/1966 (WU forecast for Tuesday: 100°F)
100°F Downtown Los Angeles, 11/1/1966 (WU forecast for Tuesday: 101°F)
100°F Burbank/Glendale/Pasadena, 10/26/2003 (WU forecast for Tuesday: 99°F)
100°F San Diego, 11/4/2010 (WU forecast for Tuesday: 91°F)
99°F Bakersfield, 10/27/1906 (WU forecast for Tuesday: 90°F)
The heat wave and Santa Ana winds will be caused by a large near-record-strength dome of high pressure expected to settle in over the Great Basin, a few hundred miles northeast of Los Angeles. The difference in pressure between this high-pressure system and lower pressure over Southern California will drive gusty northeast winds over Southern California. Since these winds will originate over desert areas, they will be hot and dry. As the air descends from the mountains to the coast, the air will get hotter and drier, due to adiabatic compression—the process whereby the pressure on a parcel of air increases as it descends, decreasing its volume, and thus increasing its temperature as work is done on it.”
Howdy Mak … I share your opinion regarding the life expectancy on this planet. I lifted the following comment from a ZeroHedge thread.
This is why I believe complex life will not survive in the future.
“What will happen to the US in a nuclear war with Russia/China?
All major cities will be incinerated. Energy infrastructure will be destroyed- including electrical generators, oil refineries, oil and gas pipelines, storage facilities and tanker loading docks. This means all electronic devices will cease functioning, computers and cell phones will not work. The pumps cooling the 60+ nuclear reactors currently operating in the US will stop, the cores will overheat and meltdown resulting in Chernobyl and Fukushima like disasters all over the country. It takes 10 calories of energy to produce 1 calorie of food. The average food commodity transits 1500 miles from production point to consumption site. Thus, those surviving the initial attacks will rapidly starve.
Is this every discussed by corporate media?”
And this is just in the USA. Europe is packed full of nuclear waste just waiting to escape it’s “containment”. That containment is only temporarily keeping this stuff out of our environment.
Curlyq3
Apneaman on Mon, 23rd Oct 2017 11:10 am
“The amount of fire activity in Canada, which currently is about 2½ million hectares — about half the size of Nova Scotia — has doubled since the 1970s,” Mike Flannigan, professor of wildland fire at the University of Alberta told The Canadian Press.
Not only has Canada experienced a record-breaking season, it’s been a historic year for wildfires across the globe, Flannigan highlighted.”
Everyone Knew Houston’s Reservoirs Would Flood — Except for the People Who Bought Homes Inside Them
“Boutor ended up with more than a foot of water in his house and was forced to wade out of his home in knee-deep water with his 10-year-old son clinging to his back.
He and his neighbors are now coming to terms with the fact that in big enough rainstorms, their neighborhoods are actually designed to flood. And nobody told them about it.”
Duncan Idaho on Sun, 22nd Oct 2017 11:48 am
Bates is almost always a clear voice of the sane.
That is why he is often dismissed.
Apneaman on Sun, 22nd Oct 2017 12:03 pm
California fires: A rising toll in deaths and dollars
“SAN FRANCISCO – The wildfires that have devastated Northern California this month caused at least $1 billion in damage to insured property, officials said Thursday, as authorities increased the count of homes and other buildings destroyed to nearly 7,000.
Both numbers were expected to rise as crews continued assessing areas scorched by the blazes that killed 42 people, a total that makes it the deadliest series of fires in state history.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-fires-a-rising-toll-in-deaths-and-dollars/
“caused at least $1 billion in damage to insured property” now add in the economic losses.
Devastating California wildfires predicted to cost US economy $85 billion; Containment may take weeks
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/devastating-california-wildfires-predicted-to-cost-us-economy-85-billion-containment-may-take-weeks/70003000
Looks like this round might not be finished.
Prepare for Historic Heat
“Summer just won’t leave us be. The National Weather Service is forecasting record heat for Los Angeles beginning Sunday and lasting through Tuesday, which could be the hottest day of the heatwave.
Temperatures in some areas will surpass 100, and nights will not provide a lot of cooling, according to forecasters. “We should easily see temps reaching 100 degrees across a pretty wide area in L.A. and Ventura counties, with the warmest day being Tuesday,” according to an NWS outlook.”
http://www.laweekly.com/news/well-into-october-los-angeles-is-expecting-historic-heat-8772352
Anonymous on Sun, 22nd Oct 2017 1:03 pm
Get to the fucking point. Multiple paragraphs without a clear topic statement. Stream of consciousness bloated blathering bullshit.
Have a point. Make it. Moron.
Alice Friedemann on Sun, 22nd Oct 2017 3:29 pm
Our house burned down in the 1991 Oakland firestorm, and the only thing that stopped it was the fog coming in, otherwise no telling how far it would have burned. Nothing’s been done, nothing, despite 12 fires and 12 blue ribbon panels recommending the eucalyptus be replaced with native vegetation. I think developers like the rebuilding business. Keeps them in jobs.
More importantly, I’ve wanted to buy “the marble race game” depicted at the top for friends and relatives kids, but it’s called something else, that just brings up expensive plastic rube goldberg contraptions, not the boards with the holes in them that you tilt the board to keep the marble from going in.
Duncan Idaho on Sun, 22nd Oct 2017 6:06 pm
I had two houses I lived in in Santa Barbara burn down, and lost a car in the Sonoma Fires.
makati1 on Sun, 22nd Oct 2017 6:28 pm
Another one of those “If only” and “Maybe if” articles. “Give $$$ and everything will be OK” bullshit. We are NOT going to change anything. We are running toward the extinction cliff and it is all downhill. There will be no one here to read anything in 100 years. Maybe not even 50.
Apneaman on Sun, 22nd Oct 2017 8:49 pm
New Fire Danger Threatens to Worsen Most Disastrous Wildfire Season in California History
“A record-breaking heat wave will build over Southern California over the weekend and peak on Tuesday, bringing triple-digit temperatures that could set marks for the hottest temperatures ever recorded so late in the year in the Los Angeles area. Accompanying the heat will be the notorious Santa Ana winds, which will bring a multi-day period of critical fire danger, Saturday through Tuesday.
According to NOAA, the hottest temperatures ever recorded after October 23 in Southern California (along with the Weather Underground forecast for Tuesday) were:
105°F Riverside, 10/28/1915 (WU forecast for Tuesday: 100°F)
101°F LAX Airport, 11/1/1966 (WU forecast for Tuesday: 96°F)
101°F Longbeach, 11/1/1966 (WU forecast for Tuesday: 100°F)
100°F Downtown Los Angeles, 11/1/1966 (WU forecast for Tuesday: 101°F)
100°F Burbank/Glendale/Pasadena, 10/26/2003 (WU forecast for Tuesday: 99°F)
100°F San Diego, 11/4/2010 (WU forecast for Tuesday: 91°F)
99°F Bakersfield, 10/27/1906 (WU forecast for Tuesday: 90°F)
The heat wave and Santa Ana winds will be caused by a large near-record-strength dome of high pressure expected to settle in over the Great Basin, a few hundred miles northeast of Los Angeles. The difference in pressure between this high-pressure system and lower pressure over Southern California will drive gusty northeast winds over Southern California. Since these winds will originate over desert areas, they will be hot and dry. As the air descends from the mountains to the coast, the air will get hotter and drier, due to adiabatic compression—the process whereby the pressure on a parcel of air increases as it descends, decreasing its volume, and thus increasing its temperature as work is done on it.”
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/new-fire-danger-threatens-worsen-most-disastrous-wildfire-season-california-history
curlyq3 on Sun, 22nd Oct 2017 9:31 pm
Howdy Mak … I share your opinion regarding the life expectancy on this planet. I lifted the following comment from a ZeroHedge thread.
This is why I believe complex life will not survive in the future.
“What will happen to the US in a nuclear war with Russia/China?
All major cities will be incinerated. Energy infrastructure will be destroyed- including electrical generators, oil refineries, oil and gas pipelines, storage facilities and tanker loading docks. This means all electronic devices will cease functioning, computers and cell phones will not work. The pumps cooling the 60+ nuclear reactors currently operating in the US will stop, the cores will overheat and meltdown resulting in Chernobyl and Fukushima like disasters all over the country. It takes 10 calories of energy to produce 1 calorie of food. The average food commodity transits 1500 miles from production point to consumption site. Thus, those surviving the initial attacks will rapidly starve.
Is this every discussed by corporate media?”
And this is just in the USA. Europe is packed full of nuclear waste just waiting to escape it’s “containment”. That containment is only temporarily keeping this stuff out of our environment.
Curlyq3
Apneaman on Mon, 23rd Oct 2017 11:10 am
“The amount of fire activity in Canada, which currently is about 2½ million hectares — about half the size of Nova Scotia — has doubled since the 1970s,” Mike Flannigan, professor of wildland fire at the University of Alberta told The Canadian Press.
Not only has Canada experienced a record-breaking season, it’s been a historic year for wildfires across the globe, Flannigan highlighted.”
http://bit.ly/2zxoAhN
Apneaman on Mon, 23rd Oct 2017 11:13 am
Everyone Knew Houston’s Reservoirs Would Flood — Except for the People Who Bought Homes Inside Them
“Boutor ended up with more than a foot of water in his house and was forced to wade out of his home in knee-deep water with his 10-year-old son clinging to his back.
He and his neighbors are now coming to terms with the fact that in big enough rainstorms, their neighborhoods are actually designed to flood. And nobody told them about it.”
https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/harvey-reservoirs
As boat would say, it’s just capitalism.
Apneaman on Mon, 23rd Oct 2017 11:15 am
More acidic oceans ‘will affect all sea life’
“All sea life will be affected because carbon dioxide emissions from modern society are making the oceans more acidic, a major new report will say.
The eight-year study from more than 250 scientists finds that infant sea creatures will be especially harmed.”
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41653511